Wouldn't it be great to know if TikTok Shops had a halo effect and generated more revenue than it reported? Or did it cannibalize Revenue?
What if we could test TikTok Shops Incrementality?
Cooking something up at @CommnThreadCo
@IstvanicMarin I believe the commission should be set based on the aMER target- there’s no right or wrong % - If my aMER target is 2x then offering 50% commission is cool If It’ll helps to push more volume.
Your offer has a truly big impact on your LTV. Running a sample pack can get you more CM in the next 60 days than what you’d capture at your full pack offer.
@andrewjfaris I usually do Intelligems, I feel duplicating the ads isn’t really fair because you’re setting an ad that has a history of data and spend against a new one even though they’re the same.
@ashvinmelwani The correlation we’re seeing here really confirms the theory that CPM has to do with the quality of the traffic. The higher the quality of the traffic, the higher the CVR and the higher your CPC.
@thedanielokon I found the Supermetrics MCP for Claude is a lot better, you can create a skill and leverage it to analyze things out and get really deep into the data.
@ron_ecomm@gold_tesla Well in my opinion it depends on the size, if you’re spending $5M+ annually I’d go for a GEO holdout to find out the overall incrementality for Meta as a whole. If you’re a smaller brand, I’d run a correlation model with my aMER and ROAS, and pick the closer one.
@ron_ecomm@gold_tesla It’s not about which one you like, it’s more about which one has the highest incrementality. I’ve seen brands have 100% incrementality on 7DC/1DV, and I’ve seen brands have 80% incrementality on the same attribution.
Rebuilt an ad account on Friday.
Saturday: 3rd highest revenue day ever.
Sunday: Highest revenue day ever.
Moved from:
- Creative Testing campaigns
- Bunch of auto-bidding
- No value optimization
To:
- 100% manual bids
- Ad sets separated by economic unit/product category with bids relative to AOVs
- No separate creative testing
Exact same creative.
"Media buying is dead" is one of the biggest myths in ecommerce.
I get insanely frustrated by people pitching playbooks on how to grow to $X. Every brand has a different DNA, and every brand needs its own playbook with a set of actions that are accountable for specific revenue.
UNILEVER TO ACQUIRE GRUNS FOR UNDISCLOSED SUM IN HUGE VMS SPLASH
Grüns, one of the best stories in CPG of the last decade, has been punctuated with a massive deal to Unilever. The VMS M&A wave is in the early innings!
Financial terms weren't disclosed, but given Gruns' disclosed revenue, growth rate, and Unilever's annual stated M&A budget - it was definitely a big one.
The Numbers
- Founded: August 2023 by Chad Janis (confirmed a chad)
- $100M ARR: May 2025 (month 21)
- $300M ARR: August 2025 (month 24)
- Last valuation: $500M (April 2025 funding round led by Headline)
- Profitable within 14 months of launch
Price undisclosed, but the $500M valuation set the floor 12 months ago. With $300M+ ARR at the time of deal announcement, rough benchmarks:
- Huel acquired by Danone for ~3.4x revenue - 2026
- Liquid I.V. / Unilever - ~2.6x revenue - 2020
- Dr. Squatch / Unilever ~3x revenue - 2025
- poppi // PepsiCo ~3x revenue - 2025
Unilever has been making an all in effort into personal care and wellness, with brands like Liquid I.V. & Nutrafol set to pass $1B in sales, UL is putting together a formidable wellness portfolio. Plus, they spent $1.5B on Dr. Squatch last year.
Early investors include Sugar Capital, Vanterra Capital, and more.