The airplanes that never returned....
Abraham Wald’s lesson was not just about airplanes.
It was about science.
During World War II, the military studied the planes that returned from combat, covered in bullet holes. The obvious conclusion was to reinforce the damaged areas.
But Wald understood the deeper truth:
Those planes had survived...The real answer was in the planes that never returned.
This is where many of the biggest advances in medicine and science are hiding today.
Not in the data we already measure. Not in the incremental questions protected by conservative medical schools, funding mechanisms and established dogma.
But in the missing signals.
The patients who do not respond.
The mechanisms we are not looking for.
The hypotheses that do not fit the dominant model.
The biological “airplanes” that never make it back into our datasets.
Incremental research is important. But paradigm shifts rarely come from polishing what we already see.
They come from asking:
What are we not measuring?
Who is missing from the data?
What mechanism has been invisible because our framework was wrong?
The future of medicine may depend less on reinforcing the bullet holes we can see, and more on understanding the airplanes that never returned.
March has been colorectal cancer awareness month.
A reminder of the work of Bert Vogelstein, one of the most cited cancer researchers in history.
He showed that colorectal cancer is a slow, stepwise process (often over 20–25 years): normal tissue ➡️ small adenoma (polyp) ➡️ large adenoma ➡️ adenocarcinoma.
That insight changed everything.
Because if you detect and remove a polyp early, you’re not treating cancer, you’re preventing it decades before it appears.
At a time when colorectal cancer is significantly rising in younger people, this matters more than ever.
Screening saves lives. Get your colonoscopy.