MAGA, if you buy a $40,000 truck, you didn’t “lose” $40,000. You exchanged $40,000 for a truck. Imports work on the same basic concept. If you stop spending $100 at the grocery store, you did not “make” $100. You also don’t have groceries. It's amazing how this has to be explained to Donald.
Straits Taylor Rule:
i = r* + π* + 1.5(π−π*) + 0.5(y−y*) + α(SOH−SOH*) + β(BEM−BEM*), α,β > 0
Let’s see if a hike could open SOH or produce a single barrel :)
You can’t 25bp a chokepoint and r* isn’t neutral. It’s SOH risk premium, and We set it.
Stay unanchored !
I resigned from Anthropic today. I spent the last three years doing pretraining research at both OpenAI and Anthropic. Neither company is acting responsibly. They are racing straight to self-improving superintelligence and gambling with our lives. More thoughts below.