Herb

amateur at life. Mulinhem Capital. GER/ENG

[Herb @herb_duck]

I have been outside for quite a bit this year but now its time to lock in.

[Herb @herb_duck]

@kepania95 current rate is 350-375bps so the market is currently pricing a 70% change of 25bps hike. I raised some cash but will take the next actions after the meeting. Right now Im waiting for $ORCL earnings today

[Herb @herb_duck]

give it a lil more and i will buy $TLT out of pity

[Herb @herb_duck]

@kepania95 It depends, I am structurally bullish on semis in the long-run but avoid leverage right now (besides meta calls). There is no way they cut rates next week. I would even go as far to say that a hike could be bullish for equities as it adresses a problem everyone can see

[Herb @herb_duck]

@kepania95 a mixture of Oil , CPI and mainly the midterm commentary. Trump´s 5K dividend would only make things worse for bonds. Bessents intervention failed thus far and the labor market is doing fairly well. Im waiting for the FED meeting next week before doing anything

[Herb @herb_duck]

$WTI at 100
US10Y almost at 5%
Art of the deal

[Herb @herb_duck]

There is a good chance OAI damaged their own enterprise business for science clout. Alex Karp layed out this scenario in an interview and now we can see it happen in real time

[Herb @herb_duck]

The need for a good western open source model has never been bigger

[Herb @herb_duck]

While the fundamental thesis for AI and Semis is as strong as ever I see three main risks
1.) CPI + FOMC (today + next week)
2.) Iran (unknown timeframe)
3.) Midterms
election campaigning has started and we will see which baskets perform Long/Short

[Herb @herb_duck]

Gold is looking productive again. We shall wait and see if $GC hold 4375

[Herb @herb_duck]

The second biggest risk is that we as a society refuse to accept AI on a broad level. Third biggest risk is that current tech is already good enough

[Herb @herb_duck]

the biggest risk is not being exposed

[OpenAI @OpenAI]

We’re sharing a solution to the Navier-Stokes Millennium Prize Problem, one of the deepest problems at the frontier of mathematics.

The proof was produced by a group of agents, using an OpenAI next-generation model significantly more capable than GPT-6 Astra.

The problem concerns whether the description of smooth three-dimensional fluid motion modeled by the Navier-Stokes equations can break down. It has remained unresolved for roughly 90 years.

[Herb @herb_duck]

one shoudn´t buy something because its cheap but its hard to understate how cheap $GOOG is historically.

[Herb @herb_duck]

$META long is working great, I think $GOOG is a similar setup soon

[Herb @herb_duck]

I think $RKLB is also in a good spot for the LT-port

[Herb @herb_duck]

Should I go bikepacking in Kyrgyzstan next year?

[Herb @herb_duck]

p(doom) ~ 100% in the long run

[Herb @herb_duck]

I think that the increase in quantative traders (pros+retail) using similiar LLM´s could lead to a higher degree of mean reverson compared to trending envronments.

[Herb @herb_duck]

It feels like the "nothing-ever-happen" is about to stop

[Herb @herb_duck]

I like $INTC and $IFX here

[Herb @herb_duck]

The biggest hurdle remains general societal acceptance. This opens up two trades: 1.) LT-stock growth 2.) personal exploitation of slowed ai adoption by simply using the models. LLM´s wil never go away and only increase the spread between risks averse and risk prone people

[Herb @herb_duck]

$AIXA seems to be in a good spot

[Herb @herb_duck]

+8% today. The real question is not what happens today but where the stock is in 2028+. $AIXA and $LITE are core holdings for next couple of years