Dane Herrin

Economist, Data Scientist, and math nerd. I study markets and black swan events, and use antifragility as a concept for building systems.

[Leyla @LeylaKuni]

Infrastructure funds realizing they have to pivot from data centers back to wind farms.

[Dane Herrin @HerrinScience]

@zerohedge Right after raising $20B with coupons up to 8.65%. Looks like Oracle is finally counting cash instead of capacity. I'd watch whether other hyperscalers start trimming deals that only made sense at zero rates.

[Dane Herrin @HerrinScience]

@KobeissiLetter And bonds rallied too. The market was pricing a Congress that spends like crazy with no one to stop it. Divided government takes the tail risk off the table for two years, and that's worth a lot more than any single policy.

[Dane Herrin @HerrinScience]

Open-source models handle 19% of enterprise AI usage but get 4% of the spend, per Menlo's new report. So either open weights are the best deal in software, or companies are paying a fat premium for a logo and someone to yell at. Which one is it?

https://t.co/sCfwlB4l9d

[Dane Herrin @HerrinScience]

@sigmahamster2 Smegma hamster is fucking hilarious. Everything else is retarded, tho

[Dane Herrin @HerrinScience]

@captive_0 Commie retard goes REEEEEEEEE

[Dane Herrin @HerrinScience]

@captive_0 @sigmahamster2 Explain your worldview without proving my exact point.

[Dane Herrin @HerrinScience]

@MMAFighting He should probably stop regardless.

[Dane Herrin @HerrinScience]

@ArghAnotherName @sigmahamster2

[Dane Herrin @HerrinScience]

@MichealHunt2000 @cozymaximalist This is the best response I could encounter. Exactly right.

[Enguerrand VII de Coucy @ingelramdecoucy]

People born in 1901 lived through two World Wars, Pearl Harbor, the Spanish Flu, and the actual Great Depression by the time they were 43 and went on to create one of the most vibrant periods in American history.

Suck it up, buttercup

[Dane Herrin @HerrinScience]

@DudeWhoInvests Any opportunity to get NVDA at nearly $200 is going to make you wealthy in about 14 months.

[Dane Herrin @HerrinScience]

@DudeWhoInvests Pretty much. No one party gets to wave a wand and say "good stock market" or "bad stock market." They just advocate for policies that help or hurt businesses depending on how susceptible to propaganda their constituents are.

[Dane Herrin @HerrinScience]

Pathfinder raised a $12M Series A for a card that lets Arizona families spend school choice ESA money. 8,000+ accounts since March. Parents got control of the money and a startup showed up within months. The district office never managed that.

We could use this in Oregon.
https://t.co/TbiSC3Kwhv

[Dane Herrin @HerrinScience]

CrowdStrike shipped an AI kill switch that stops a rogue agent, blocks restarts and cuts its network access, and it's buying Fiddler and Dreadnode to test and monitor agents. The private sector built this before Congress finished scheduling the hearing. https://t.co/R9UtUcNyiL

[Dane Herrin @HerrinScience]

Korea's KOSPI and Taiwan's Taiex both fell 3.59% overnight, with SK Hynix off 5% and Samsung off 4%. The AI trade is finally getting stress tested and I'm glad. A bubble that sellers pop early does far less damage than one a central bank keeps pumping. https://t.co/qY8O92Gblh

[Dane Herrin @HerrinScience]

Oracle sold $10B of stock at $116 a share and $10B of bonds paying 7% to 8.65% out to 2046. A megacap paying those coupons to fund AI data centers tells you more about the capex boom than any analyst note. The market is pricing the risk without help. https://t.co/M7nGmNuQOi

[Dane Herrin @HerrinScience]

@zerohedge Oracle had to pay 8.65% on its 2046s yesterday. Curious where Meta clears with an Aa3. The spread between those two is the bond market grading AI capex discipline company by company, and it gets to the heart of what the company is doing more than any earnings call.

[Dane Herrin @HerrinScience]

@zerohedge 7.52M openings against 7.16M expected. Employers are still hiring, which kills the argument for rate cuts to cushion the tech selloff. Let the market clear on its own. Which is capitalism, right? Are we still doing capitalism?