herta

blockchain and future tech

[herta @herta_pk]

@BCBacker Xrp above 1,62 , happy thanksgiving! :)

[Kyle @kylelangham]

Much has changed in the crypto world in the past 12 months and I thought I would share some thoughts, predictions and analysis. Below is how I see the crypto market today and how I believe it will develop in the future, sorted by my confidence.

I’d love to turn this into a conversation, so let me know your feedback on this post

High Conviction

1. The SEC’s crypto crackdown is a nothingburger - Crypto has become political in the US and now falls across political party lines with Republicans being pro-crypto and Democrats being anti-crypto. Nowhere is this more evident than within the SEC, which has aggressively gone after crypto in both public statements and legal action. I believe this will reverse course and ultimately the SEC will embrace smart crypto regulation (with a few more bumps in the road along the way). I believe this because of two trends: (1) the US courts have routinely sided with crypto and recently have struck down the SEC’s “govern through ambiguity” approach and (2) money talks in US politics and crypto is starting to fund POTUS campaigns in 2024. Currently, the #2 Democrat (RFK Jr.) and #4 Republican (Vivek Ramaswamy) in recent polls have taken pro-crypto stances, with RFK Jr. going so far as suggesting the US dollar should be partially-backed by Bitcoin. The tides are changing in the US and our darkest regulatory days are behind us.

2. Bitcoin and Ethereum are still king and queen - If 2023 has done anything, it’s proven out the “Bitcoin as a store of value” narrative. Between bank failures in the US, high inflation in countries like Argentina and the UK and a general lack of trust in authorities throughout the world, Bitcoin continues to build the case that it is an investable asset (buoyed by BlackRock’s recent ETF application). Bitcoin’s dominance (the percent of Bitcoin’s market cap relative to all of crypto’s) is at 50%, it’s highest level since early 2021.Ethereum, on the other hand, continues to show that network effects matter A LOT. While other L1 projects have outpaced Ethereum on the technology front, these projects (like Internet Computer and Polygon) have chosen to extend Ethereum’s capabilities, not compete with them. These strategic decisions are a clear indication that Ethereum’s network effects are insurmountable for the time being.

3. Crypto is still looking for it’s product-market fit, and that’s OK - Let’s be honest, other than Bitcoin’s “store of value” use case, crypto has yet to find a product-market fit. There’s a lot of interesting and exciting things going on in DeFi, privacy, digital ownership, etc., but nothing that is even close to mass adoption. And that’s OK. Few people remember that in 1999 (DotCom bubble) the internet hadn’t found a product-market fit either. Anecdotally, I remember my uncle telling me in 1998 “Other than email, the internet is just a toy”. It wasn’t until around 2005 until the internet found true product-market fit (social media, gig economy, cloud computing, ect). A key component of that was hardware and infrastructure (smart phones, cable modems, 3G cell data) advancements. Crypto is still looking for those use cases and has time to find them. As long as the industry continues to experiment with software products and build out its infrastructure and hardware, product-market fit will come.

High-Medium Conviction

4. Crypto is in the beginning of The Great Consolidation - All new industries go through major consolidation periods. It’s a natural outcome of market efficiency and typically happens in waves. I believe we are in one of those waves for crypto and will see the number of crypto projects vastly decrease as resources (developer time, funding) consolidate. Not many people are talking about this now, but I believe they will be soon as projects begin to fail. So how do you know who will survive the consolidation? Here’s three questions you should ask of your favorite project: (1) does it expand the functionality of Bitcoin and/or Ethereum (see #2 above)?, (2) does it serve a niche market and have a clear fit with that market?, (3) is the project currently attracting more developers and/or users? If you can’t answer yes to at least one of those questions, it’s probably not gonna make it.

5. Developer Stats are worrisome - Almost all reliable sources confirm that developer counts within crypto are down over the past year. According the Electric Capital (https://t.co/oH9KXnnUvK), the gold standard for developer stats, the number of developers building open-sourced crypto software peaked in the summer of 2022. The number of full-time developers is down 17% and the number of part-time developers is down 23%. These are by far the largest declines in crypto developer counts since its inception in 2009. Developer counts, in my opinion, are a leading indicator to adoption and innovation within crypto, so these declines are worrisome, particularly if the trend doesn’t reverse over the next year. The silver lining - developer counts are still twice the levels seen after the 2018 bull market.

Medium Conviction

6. The 4-Year Crypto Cycle has one last cycle in it, but it will be different - Much has been said about the crypto 4-year boom-and-bust cycle. This cycle is timed to the bitcoin halving cycle, with a massive bull run typically starting ~6 months after the halving event. I predict that the cycle has only one more iteration left, corresponding to next April’s halving. The 4-year cycle will become obsolete due to three things: (1) the awareness of the 4-year cycle is universal and thus has minimal chance to surprise to the upside, (2) the impact of Bitcoin’s halving relative to its supply diminishes and (3) the crypto industry matures. I anticipate that the market will front-run next April’s halving and that the majority of the gains of the next bull market will be realized prior to this time next year. From there, the crypto market will become far less volatile and the triple digit percent annual gains and >50% losses will become a thing of the past. Instead, over the next 5 years it will be much more important to invest in the right project or company (see #4 above) than it will be to time the market.

7. $BTC-denominated stablecoins will become the preferred currency of the internet by 2030 - All the talk about Bitcoin becoming legal tender is a bit ridiculous when you consider it hasn’t even made a dent as the preferred currency of its home turf - the internet. There are two big reasons for that: (1) the user experience for bitcoin online is horrendous and (2) there still isn’t a great solution for scaling bitcoin. That’s beginning to change as builders are beginning to flock to sister chains and L2s of Bitcoin, primarily due to the awareness of “building on Bitcoin” created by Ordinals and the potential to be early on a multi-trillion dollar shift in online behavior. These projects will produce highly secure tokens that are 1:1 redeemable to Bitcoin through direct integration with the BTC network; these are de facto BTC-denominated stablecoins and they will open the door to much better user experiences with using Bitcoin as a currency online. #ckBTC is one such token already released; #sBTC is another token slated for Q4 of this year. In addition, these stablecoins will unlock incredible innovation as programmable money and, I predict, will usher in a new way in which internet users think about money online, well beyond the current status quo of simply buying services and products online.

[David Dal Busco @daviddalbusco]

The lighthouse (mobile) score of a blog created with @PapyrsApp

I mean, that web app is 100% delivered by the #InternetComputer - a blockchain network 🤯

https://t.co/wGey3R1Esd

[ICPSquad @ICPSquad]

Switch to the best chain ⛓️
#InternetComputer #ICP #IC

SMASH that 💙 and retweet to tell the rest of the crypto world!

[Stoic Wallet @StoicWalletApp]

All NFTs on @EntrepotApp now show in StoicWallet by default! No need to add canister IDs manually anymore!

[Eimolad @Eimolad]

The web design for the in-game MARKET is already ready..
#Eimolad #NFT #STAKING #ICP

[herta @herta_pk]

@The_Swop @AOKI_NFT Check it out!

@neela_crypto @SirBeisser @Inuani_art

[dom | icp @dominic_w]

Happy Birthday Internet Computer :)

You will overcome all
Very proud 😘🔥

Chain:
ZERO downtime
280,000 TPS (tested)
800,000,000M+ blocks

Ecosystem:
100s fully on-chain services
2M+ Internet Identities

Devs:
1,600+ GitHub repos
80,000+ commits

Dfinity team:
260+ ppl

Next:👇

[Eimolad @Eimolad]

Dear Eimoladians,
🔥Staking is live and we added one more pair to our staking system
➡️👴+ ⚔️
➡️⚔️ + ⚔️
🔥Thank you all for participating in our staking event.
🧾Please fill out the form in the link to receive your rewards.
https://t.co/0i0JoftIej
#Dfinity #Eimolad #Staking

[Internet Computer Today @DfinityToday]

Web 2 → Web 3 @dfinity #InternetComputer

[Eimolad @Eimolad]

🔥STAKING Is Ready🔥
⚔️Be prepared to equip your Dwarves with weapons.
🪙It's time to earn eGOLD!
📒Our Medium Article about how to Stake: https://t.co/ovZvIQ61Vx
🎁RT, tag 3 friends to win GEMS 💎 and Suprise rewards❗️
#Dfinity #Eimolad #Staking #P2E #Web3 #StakingRewards

[Cointelegraph @Cointelegraph]

Which infinity logo looks better, @dfinity or @Meta? https://t.co/MEwjvCTtvq

[ICPSquad @ICPSquad]

We are happy to announce that our media outlet division received a $50k grant from @dfinity.

We'll use this to keep building the marketing machine to promote all things #ic and #icp 😎

[ICPSquad @ICPSquad]

🧡, Comment, and RT if you want the #ICP hashtag back!

[dSquad ∞ @dSquadNFT]

Announcing the @ICPSquadNFT 🤝@icppark airdrop

💰Top 50 @ICPSquadNFT accessory holders will get the airdrop. 👉https://t.co/oyXeMz7ncD
✅Snapshop will be taken on April 11th
👉 Join https://t.co/IekYAyANbV for all details

RT to spread the word 😎

[dom | icp @dominic_w]

@Mara_Sebriant @el33th4xor Internet Computer approach to scaling (subnets) began around time Avalanche was founded/2018

Avalanche using "subnets" = confusing misappropriation. Moreover, it's a marketing scam

Avalanche subnets are separate blockchains, not transparent parts of 1 scalable chain à la #ICP

[Ronin @Ronin_Network]

There has been a security breach on the Ronin Network.

https://t.co/ktAp9w5qpP

[dom | icp @dominic_w]

Another
Catastrophic
Bridge hack
$625,000,000 👀

Unfort. bridges are critical dependencies for Solana and Avalanche DeFi ecosystems. W/o them they die

Internet Computer's alien crypto will make bridges 100% obsolete

#ICP smart contracts will execute on ANY chain

Bitcoin 1st⏱️

[Eimolad @Eimolad]

❓What skill did the dwarf use?
✅Like, RT and Tag your friends to Win
🎁 3 Dwarves NFT + 5 Weapons 🥳
⭐️Fill the google form to be whitelisted
Form: https://t.co/oa6mfhYKC6
#Dfinity #Eimolad #Entrepot #HOPON
https://t.co/7m9VDftbA6

[herta @herta_pk]

@eimolad The dwarf is smithing, looks supercool! 🔥⚒️

Check it out!

@neela_crypto

@Inuani_art

@SirBeisser