Paul Adrian Hetes

[The Kobeissi Letter @KobeissiLetter]

Key Events This Week:

1. Markets React to US/Iran Pausing Strikes - Today, 6 PM ET

2. July Consumer Confidence data - Tuesday

3. July Fed Interest Rate Decision - Wednesday

4. Microsoft, $MSFT, Meta, $META, Report Earnings - Wednesday

5. July PCE Inflation data - Thursday

6. Apple, $AAPL, Amazon, $AMZN, Report Earnings - Thursday

7. July MI Consumer Sentiment data - Friday

8. July MI Inflation Expectations data - Friday

We have a huge week ahead.

[The Trend Sage @JonkooTrades]

$AAOI first crossed ~$100 in late March. Four months later, here we are again around $100. If you’re buying today, you’re paying roughly what buyers paid in March.

Except look at everything that’s happened since:

▸ Guidance RAISED to >$1.1B revenue (+141%) and >$140M non-GAAP operating income for FY26

▸ Q1 printed at $151.1M (+51%), with first volume 800G shipments to a new hyperscaler

▸ Q2 guided to $180-198M, another record if they hit it

▸ Over $324M in fresh orders disclosed, including their first volume 1.6T order at $200M+

▸ Cash more than doubled to $449M, plus a new $600M ATM shelf and a doubled China credit line

▸ Bought the entire ~400K sq ft Pearland campus ($58.4M)

▸ Won a $20.85M Texas Semiconductor Fund grant

▸ Signed the $94.1M FAB4 cleanroom, 3x the size of the last one, construction already underway

▸ Added to the Russell 1000 and Midcap Growth

▸ Hedge funds holding went 36 to 55, Renaissance initiated

▸ Rosenblatt took its target to $220 and named it a 2H top pick

In March, most of this was hope. Today it’s filings, purchase agreements, and raised guidance.

Same price as March. Materially de-risked versus March. That’s what an improving risk/reward looks like.

Next checkpoint: Aug 6. Earnings!

Not financial advice. DYOR.

[Paul Adrian Hetes @hetesp87]

@Onyx Development moves fw, which is good, however we will also need to see adoption if what has been developed by some big players so that our investments will produce return. Holding $XCN since Jan ‘25 even though I am down ~85% . Hope we will bounce and prove this is a good project

[Paul Adrian Hetes @hetesp87]

@Brownmoose 800 - 850$ for me . $MU since Oct 25 geberated me already ~350% .. in the current context I think it could easily go to 1500$ at least .

[Paul Adrian Hetes @hetesp87]

@TheBigBerbowski Buying regularly the dip as connectivity is one of the current bottlenecks and it would still need to be for at least next 1-2 yrs .

[Paul Adrian Hetes @hetesp87]

@TheBigBerbowski Earnings will tell us how the company looks. Short / medium term, it might still go lower since they still invest in new capacity. When the new capacity will be in place and higher volumes will be delivered, then we should see better revenue, profit, margins. Still early cycle

[Wall St Engine @wallstengine]

COMFORT SYSTEMS USA $FIX Q2’26 EARNINGS HIGHLIGHTS

🔹 Revenue: $3.27B (Est. $3.01B) 🟢; +50% YoY
🔹 EPS: $12.53 (Est. $10.61) 🟢; +92% YoY
🔹 Operating Cash Flow: $1.14B (Est. $390M) 🟢; +351% YoY
🔹 Backlog: $14.06B; +73% YoY

Other Q2 Metrics:
🔹 Gross Margin: 25.9% (Est. 25.4%) 🟢
🔹 Operating Margin: 17.1% (Est. 16.2%) 🟢
🔹 Operating Income: $558.0M (Est. $485M) 🟢
🔹 Adjusted EBITDA: $600.5M (Est. $517M) 🟢
🔹 Net Income: $441.6M (Est. $372M) 🟢
🔹 Free Cash Flow: $999.3M (Est. $240M) 🟢

Comments:
🔸 “As compared to the same quarter last year, Comfort Systems USA is reporting a 50% increase in revenue, a 92% increase in per share earnings, and remarkable and completely unprecedented quarterly cash flow of more than $1 billion.”

🔸 “Strong ongoing demand together with our capabilities and reputation produced solid sequential and year over year backlog growth. … Our excellent workforce, combined with our strong pipelines make us optimistic about our results for the remainder of 2026 and well into 2027.”

[high cagr @HiCagr]

$GOOGL CAPEX FROM $195B to $205B

[The Kobeissi Letter @KobeissiLetter]

We are in the midst of the biggest technological revolution in modern history.

Alphabet, $GOOGL, just raised their full-year 2026 CapEx guidance to up to $205 billion.

This annual CapEx budget alone is larger than the market cap of all but 85 companies in the world.

The Magnificent 7 will soon spend over $1 trillion in combined annual CapEx.

This is a once-in-a-lifetime technological revolution.

[Shay Boloor @StockSavvyShay]

$GOOGL doubles quarterly CapEx YoY to $44.9B spending more in a single quarter than it did across all of 2022.

Demand is justifying one of the largest capex programs in corporate history with Cloud growing 82% and generating more operating income in a single quarter than it produced in total revenue less than three years ago.

[Watcher.Guru @WatcherGuru]

JUST IN: Micron Technology $MU rises over 10% after Bank of America adds it to its list of "best investment ideas."

[Shay Boloor @StockSavvyShay]

Bank of America added $MU to its list of "best investment ideas" saying low cost Chinese AI models are expanding adoption and HBM demand.

Kimi K3 still requires ~1.4 TB of HBM per instance reinforcing Micron’s long term outlook.

[P Equity Research 📰 @pequityresearch]

A former Nvidia director says $AAOI has "good stuff" regarding their transceivers.

"They've got good stuff and are US-based, which makes a difference because everybody is worried about the whole China, Taiwan thing and so forth."

[high cagr @HiCagr]

🧏‍♂️ $AAOI

[Paul Adrian Hetes @hetesp87]

@joecarlsonshow @dividedgrwthdad I’m also considering adding TXRH based on your portfolio. Revenue and margin wise is looking good. Compared it with DPZ , MCD and is looking better than these stocks. Will continue the analysis, but I am seriously considering it. Like your diversification in portfolio.

[Paul Adrian Hetes @hetesp87]

Shopping day! Curious to know if anyone bought anything?

[0xNobler @CryptoNobler]

🚨 BREAKING

🇺🇸 THE FED WILL OFFICIALLY ANNOUNCE NEW INFLATION DATA TODAY AT 8:30 AM ET!

IF PPI > 6.5% → MARKET DUMPS HARD
IF PPI = 6.0%-6.5% → MARKET STAYS FLAT
IF PPI < 6.0% → MARKET GOES PARABOLIC

ALL EYES ON THE RELEASE!!

[The Earnings Correspondent @earnings_guy]

$ASML (ASML) #earnings are out:

[Paul Adrian Hetes @hetesp87]

@TheBigBerbowski In 2-3 yrs this stock will be 10-20x the current market share. We are only the initial stages of the AI era.

[Ren @ren_stocks]

$AAOI is up 10% on the day, and here's some news to make it even better.

AAOI just broke ground on a new Pearland, Texas manufacturing expansion, and it takes their Houston footprint to roughly 900,000 square feet.

The target is up to 700,000 800G and 1.6T transceivers a month, with laser fabrication capacity growing about 350% by the end of 2027. This is the same company that already took its first volume order of 1.6T transceivers from a major hyperscaler.

You don't pour 388,000 square feet of concrete for demand you're hoping shows up.

Capacity like this gets built against orders you can already see. A transceiver line and a laser fab are long-lead, capital-heavy, and impossible to hide, so when a company commits to nearly a million square feet and expands its laser capacity by about 350%, that's management telling you the AI and cloud demand on the optical layer is real and booked. Steel and cleanrooms are a hard signal.

The interconnect layer isn't waiting on a catalyst, it's being built out in real time, one announcement at a time. And this one is US-based, which matters in a supply chain everyone worries is too concentrated in China.

There's a reason I'm betting on them, in short incoming revenue.

AAOI did $456M in 2025 and is guiding to over $1.1B in 2026, that's 141% growth in a single year, with datacenter already 54% of the mix and 1.6T orders in hand. A US supplier on the interconnect floor, pouring real capacity into demand it can already see and revenue that's already arriving to meet the concrete, is a bet I'll take any day of the week.

AAOI is one of the highest-volatility name in my optical book, but with high risk comes high reward, so position according to your own risk profile. I know mine, so I'm in heavy, and execution is the thing I'm watching from here.

Check out the deep dive I did on AOI, claim a free post and understand the risk and the rewards to hold with conviction:

https://t.co/vQBYY7sY8r

Bullish Photonics
Bullish $AAOI