Het Shah

PM @ LD Ventures-Quant by day, hedonist by night.
Chasing asymmetric returns in markets and people, betting on the beautiful improbability of the extreme.

[Het Shah @hetshah_8]

@AshwiniVaishnaw @vluxeinvests It is ironic that the leading data source for financial institutions overlooks actual financial figures to produce such bullshit views 😂😂

[Ashwini Vaishnaw @AshwiniVaishnaw]

Mobile PLI stats as follows:
Government incentive paid: Rs 19,000 Cr.
Direct tax collected: Rs 25,000 Cr.
GST collected: Rs 3,00,000 Cr.
Electronics manufacturing employs 25 Lakh people; mobile manufacturing alone employs 12 Lakh.

Cope harder!!

[Paweł Usiądek @PUsiadek]

Profesor ekonomii na uniwersytecie stwierdził, że kiedyś oblał całą klasę. Ta klasa upierała się, że socjalizm działa i że nikt nie powinien być biedny, a nikt bogaty, że wszyscy są równi...

Nauczyciel powiedział im: „OK, przeprowadzimy eksperyment z socjalizmem w tej grupie.

Wszystkie oceny będą uśrednione, a każdy dostanie tę samą ocenę, więc nikt nie oblany i nikt nie dostanie 10”.

Po pierwszym teście oceny zostały zsumowane i podzielone przez liczbę studentów, i każdy dostał 8.

Studenci, którzy uczyli się intensywnie, byli zdenerwowani, ale ci, którzy uczyli się mniej, byli zachwyceni.

Gdy zbliżał się drugi test, studenci, którzy wcześniej uczyli się trochę, uczyli się jeszcze mniej, a ci, którzy uczyli się intensywniej, powiedzieli sobie, że oni też chcą „darmowego prezentu”, więc też uczyli się mniej.

Średnia z drugiego testu wyniosła 6.

Gdy przeprowadzono trzeci test, średnia ocena wyniosła 4. Ku wielkiemu zaskoczeniu wszystkich studentów, wszyscy oblali.

Nauczyciel powiedział im, że socjalizm w końcu zawiedzie, ponieważ gdy połowa populacji widzi, że nie musi pracować, bo druga połowa się nimi zajmie, a gdy ta połowa, która pracowała, zdaje sobie sprawę, że nie ma sensu już pracować, bo inni korzystają z ich pracy, to jest koniec każdego narodu.

Ta historia może być bajką, a nie faktem, ale morał jest prawdziwy.

Za @nettermike

[Rupak @RupakChatto]

Brother, even if India’s GDP grows at 7% annually until 2047, it will reach only about US$17 trillion, starting from US$4.15 trillion in 2026. The maths is straightforward: reaching US$30 trillion requires nominal GDP measured in US dollars to grow at approximately 10% annually. One needs to distinguish real growth from nominal dollar growth and be careful about the assumptions behind these projections. One should check the numbers before making such claims.

[Kalpen Parekh @KalpenParekh]

Even the worst 20-year SIP earned 10.9% a year

[Het Shah @hetshah_8]

It is not in their interest to let their own and their allies’ credit ratings reflect their true quality. The entire world is locked in a struggle for capital. Because institutions meant to be independent are effectively extensions of the state seeking to maintain global standing, the rating system becomes a broad joke.

[Ritesh Jain @riteshmjn]

I think we should just stop taking western credit rating agencies seriously.

France credit rating Aa3.
India credit rating Baa3.

Moody’s puts France six notches above India.
Now look at the numbers:
•Debt/GDP: France ~116%. India ~85%.
•Nominal GDP growth: France ~2%. India ~8.9%.

France govt spending as % of GDP
60%
India govt spending as % of GDP
30%

India has less debt relative to its economy—and a much faster-growing nominal GDP base.
Yet it sits just one downgrade above junk.
The counterargument? France collects much more tax.
Fair. But today’s tax collection is not the same as tomorrow’s fiscal headroom.
France already collects 43.5% of GDP in taxes and compulsory social-security contributions. Exclude those contributions, and it is roughly 29%, versus approximately 18% in combined central and state taxes in India.
France has limited room to squeeze more from an already heavily taxed economy. India has greater scope to broaden its tax base as its economy formalises.That potential is not guaranteed. But it should not be ignored.

Institutions, income levels and borrowing costs matter. Nobody is arguing that credit ratings should depend on three numbers alone.

But six notches?

When a richer country’s weaknesses are treated as manageable, while a faster-growing country’s strengths are treated as insufficient, the methodology deserves scrutiny.

Is Moody’s measuring future repayment capacity—or giving too much credit to the past or it has just become irrelevant as a credit rating agency.

[Ritesh Jain @riteshmjn]

I think we should just stop taking western credit rating agencies seriously.

France credit rating Aa3.
India credit rating Baa3.

Moody’s puts France six notches above India.
Now look at the numbers:
•Debt/GDP: France ~116%. India ~85%.
•Nominal GDP growth: France ~2%. India ~8.9%.

France govt spending as % of GDP
60%
India govt spending as % of GDP
30%

India has less debt relative to its economy—and a much faster-growing nominal GDP base.
Yet it sits just one downgrade above junk.
The counterargument? France collects much more tax.
Fair. But today’s tax collection is not the same as tomorrow’s fiscal headroom.
France already collects 43.5% of GDP in taxes and compulsory social-security contributions. Exclude those contributions, and it is roughly 29%, versus approximately 18% in combined central and state taxes in India.
France has limited room to squeeze more from an already heavily taxed economy. India has greater scope to broaden its tax base as its economy formalises.That potential is not guaranteed. But it should not be ignored.

Institutions, income levels and borrowing costs matter. Nobody is arguing that credit ratings should depend on three numbers alone.

But six notches?

When a richer country’s weaknesses are treated as manageable, while a faster-growing country’s strengths are treated as insufficient, the methodology deserves scrutiny.

Is Moody’s measuring future repayment capacity—or giving too much credit to the past or it has just become irrelevant as a credit rating agency.

[The Kobeissi Letter @KobeissiLetter]

BREAKING: The total value of the US stock market has surged to 350% of the US M2 money supply, the highest level since the 2000 Dot-Com Bubble.

Since the 2022 bear market, this ratio has surged +170 percentage points.

Over this period, the S&P 500 has rallied +118%, while M2 has risen +9%.

In other words, the stock market's gain has outpaced the money supply growth by 13x.

The last time equity market growth exceeded M2 growth by a larger amount was from 1995 to 1999.

Asset owners are winning.

[Nassim Nicholas Taleb @nntaleb]

Wake up.
Every profession deemed white-collar, the middle class dream, is about to be decimated by AI, at a much faster pace than anticipated, with monstrous social consequences.

[The Kaipullai @thekaipullai]

Marco Rubio apparently went to Jamnagar because the Reliance refinery there is one the very few oil refineries in the world which can process Venezuelan Crude oil.

And USA desperately needs someone who can refine it for them

This is where we need to tip our hat to the vision of Reliance and the Ambanis.

Imagine the foresight and risk appetite of Dhirubhai and Mukesh Ambani, who thought of establishing one of the largest refineries in the world, a refinery that can process almost any type of crude oil, in India.

A country which has no oil of its own.

Most of see the wealth, market cap, value and power of Ambanis and Reliance

Few of us see the risks behind it

[Nutralist @olphanso]

Why is Washington suddenly so sweet on India?

Check the fuel pump. Diesel in the US: ~$6.30/gallon, up over 70% in a year. Petrol is above $4. And the midterms are just two weeks away.

So Rubio lands in Mumbai and:
• Calls India a "refining superpower"
• Heads to Jamnagar to talk heavy crude with Reliance
• Says tariffs were "never meant to punish India"
• Calls UN experts criticising India an "oxymoron"

And Trump quietly waived the Russian oil tariffs that US law required on India.

Same India they were slapping with 50% tariffs last year. Now it's a superpower.

This isn't a change of heart. It's midterm damage control. India should take the deal, but on its own terms.

[Naomi Canton @naomi2009]

This reads like George Soros wrote it. The UN is losing all its credibility with its ridiculous statements. What we saw in France were not protests. It was serious organised crime, violence, looting, arson and rioting. This statement is absurd.

[Matthew Harbaugh @themattharbaugh]

Li Lu on finding an edge

(Must read)

[Stephen Moore @StephenMoore]

California’s billionaire tax was supposed to raise $100 billion.

Now a new study estimates $30 billion in collections against $39 billion in lost income tax revenue.

When you chase away the people paying the bills, everyone else gets stuck with the tab.

[sandip sabharwal @sandipsabharwal]

In their quest for Tax at any cost
Indian Babus and @FinMinIndia will destroy any good initiative
Sachin in a good friend and was excited about the Gift City move and infact had moved some family also to Ahmedabad.
Now they will again relocate to other jurisdictions

[Ayan Paul @Ayan_Paul_]

🚨 2025: Chris Wright attacked India for buying Russian oil.

Now: Trump's team makes Russian diesel deals to protect US fuel supplies.

A journalist plays his clip. Suddenly, excuses begin

India does it, it's immoral. America does it, it's business. Same oil. Different rules.🤡

[Sidhant Sibal @sidhant]

UN Human Rights
When protests in Europe
Headline: Dialogue
Statement after a month
No mention of detentions (Thousands detained)
Law enforcement: proportionate

When protests in India
Headline: Concern
Statement on same day
Concerns over detentions
Law enforcement: restraint

[Padmaja Joshi @PadmajaJoshi]

‘Feisty’ in India, but ‘manipulated’ in France?
How Western Media saw the students’ protests in India vs those in Europe.

[Ritesh Jain @riteshmjn]

There are only 3 ways to get out of debt.

1. Outright default
2. Increase in productivity
3. Nominal default when inflation is allowed to run hotter and bond yields are managed... that is also known as "growing our way out of debt"