KOD Capital

Research-driven conviction beats greed every time.

Desire without knowledge is not good,
and whoever makes haste with his feet misses his way.
— Proverbs 19:2

[KOD Capital @hewhogathers]

$FLEX: the AI infrastructure spinoff the market hasn't priced yet

Flex is splitting in two by Q1 2027: a high-growth power/cooling business (SpinCo) + a legacy EMS manufacturer
SpinCo = grid-to-chip AI infra play: critical power, embedded power, distributed power, liquid cooling. One of the only vendors doing both IT integration AND power products
FY26 CPI revenue: $6.6B (+38% YoY), 9.2% margin. Guided 65-75% growth in FY27, 80%+ in FY28. FY27 already ~90% booked Partnerships w/ NVDA (800VDC), LG (thermal), Broadcom (liquid cooling for custom XPUs)embedded in the AI build-out from day one
Comps trade much higher: VRT ~9.3x NTM P/S, Delta ~9.4x, ETN ~5.1x. Implied SpinCo value today: ~2.9x NTM P/S. At a steep discount despite the 1-yr +218% rally in the stock
Legacy Flex business alone (~$21B rev, low-single-digit growth) ≈ Benchmark Electronics multiple (~1.0-1.2x P/S) → ~$21B value. Math implies SpinCo trades ~$33B today vs. peer-multiple fair value is likely much higher
Thesis: market hasn't fully separated the two businesses yet. SpinCo's growth + bookings visibility + AI ecosystem entrenchment isn't reflected in a blended multiple

Risk: margins still trail peers (mid-teens power vs 20%+ at VRT), spinoff execution risk, exchange ratio TBD

Not financial advice. Long $FLEX.
See the full article below

[KOD Capital @hewhogathers]

@ThematicTrader Important distinction. Mr. Market takes his time figuring things like this out

[KOD Capital @hewhogathers]

@joedab12 Kidding, but that doesn’t make sense in light of Al the evidence to the contrary

[KOD Capital @hewhogathers]

@joedab12 He might need to stick to toilets

[KOD Capital @hewhogathers]

@joedab12 Waiting on Jensen to get on board

[KOD Capital @hewhogathers]

@RJCcapital @annanay Ayyy, he’s back. Thought we lost you again

[KOD Capital @hewhogathers]

@TristanMacinnes @outlierrcapital This was wholesome and insightful. Breath of fresh air. Appreciate yall

[KOD Capital @hewhogathers]

Reduced exposure significantly last week. Bought puts in $QQQ and $XLK. Let’s see how this earnings season goes…

If I had to pick a side for the remainder of the year, I’d be bullish. The next month?? Probably a bear tbh…

[KOD Capital @hewhogathers]

@AtlasShrug1 It ticked $480

[KOD Capital @hewhogathers]

@ThematicTrader Might get a chance to load the boat soon. I missed a lot of the initial move.

[KOD Capital @hewhogathers]

@stocktalkweekly 🐐

[KOD Capital @hewhogathers]

@RJCcapital We’ll see

[KOD Capital @hewhogathers]

So clean

[KOD Capital @hewhogathers]

@RHouseResearch @BenBajarin Was there some news today you are referring to?

[KOD Capital @hewhogathers]

@joedab12 Thanks for your question on the call.

What were your thoughts on their answer?

[Wall St Engine @wallstengine]

Needham on $IREN:

In our call with the company, IREN indicated that demand from hyperscalers, enterprises, and frontier labs continues to exceed available and planned capacity.

The key point is that cloud contract economics are strengthening. The newest cohort of deals was priced above the NVIDIA contract at $15 million per megawatt and the Microsoft contract at $10 million per megawatt. We understand the main GPU types in the latest contracts to be B200s and B300s.

The weighted-average duration across the portfolio is approximately four years, while the new deals were just over three years. Recent contracts include customer prepayments representing approximately 45% of the associated GPU capital expenditures.

Analyst: John Todaro

[KOD Capital @hewhogathers]

@ThematicTrader Sounds like $SIMO 👏🏾

[KOD Capital @hewhogathers]

Many of the investors I respect and learn from the most on this platform appear to take pleasure in insulting $IREN. I don't understand it.

I am fully convinced that my largest position ($IREN) is one of the most obvious asymmetric opportunities in the market today.

Time will tell if I am wrong, of course, but what $IREN building is so much bigger than most realize.

Vertically integrated $13B MC neocloud with 5.8GW of secured power capacity, strategic alignment with $NVDA, serving $MSFT as a customer, creating global brand awareness, serving $NVDA with managed cloud services through Mirantis, 800MW announced in Australia, expanding to Europe through Nostrum and more...

They have spelled it out pretty clearly. The only question mark is execution. The market clearly doesn't believe in the execution capabilities of the $IREN team. Seems like a mistake given the giants they've aligned themselves with.

What's the downside given the AI compute supply-demand environment over the coming years?

@IREN_Ltd
@danroberts0101
@mikealfred