Done a bit of smoothing, firstly with Highlighted Plays to filter daily high conviction matches, wasn't convincing enough, still had to reduce the noise down. It then led me to filtering those to pick out 'Alpha Plays.' - the gems.
Everyone’s looking for the next big result, but it’s just like scouting - a tidy maths doesn't guarantee the win on the day when you are visually overwhelmed. Data established patterns, from patterns we see behaviours which become predictable. The Alpha Plays are the top 20% tier that carries the disproportionate weight of Volli's value - delivering the lions share of the elite performance while keeping the noise out.
♉ #AlphaPlays - Highest conviction
⚡ #HighlightedPlays - Strong match indicators
#Investing #footballanalysis
Night and Day. Volli's last two days prediction runs is what makes prediction models a volatile beast. Getting all but one wrong in a day but having the capability to get all correct the next, with 4 of 5 correct scores to boot!
I need to dive deeper to see how to reduce the noise to get these gems out.
This was unexpected. Vollie returned 100% win for the selected plays for Bundesliga 2! This has to be a league to watch - could this be driven by data rich analysis as compared to the data thin leagues Volli has scrapping by on? #Bundesliga2
Update ⚡ Highlighted Plays - Asian leagues and other early matches. #footballanalysis#smartmoney
♉ Alpha are the highest conviction matches while ⚡ Highlighted are secondary matches that show strong indicators
Update ⚡ Highlighted Plays - Asian leagues and other early matches. #footballanalysis#smartmoney
♉ Alpha are the highest conviction matches while ⚡ Highlighted are secondary matches that show strong indicators
♉ Alpha Plays passed the 100 match mark today - from 575 matches simulated. It remains the "Elite" filter with upwards of 65% - 70% hit rate, clocking at a solid 66%, and 64% or stronger across the three main outcome selections. The goal is to bring this consistency above 70% hit rate.
The secondary ⚡ Highlighted Plays (305 matches selected) is barely maintaining a 60% hit rate.
The verdict is clear - Alpha Plays are the ones to watch out for.
#FootballAnalysis #FootballSimulation #SmartMoney
♉ Alpha Plays passed the 100 match mark today - from 575 matches simulated. It remains the "Elite" filter with upwards of 65% - 70% hit rate, clocking at a solid 66%, and 64% or stronger across the three main outcome selections. The goal is to bring this consistency above 70% hit rate.
The secondary ⚡ Highlighted Plays (305 matches selected) is barely maintaining a 60% hit rate.
The verdict is clear - Alpha Plays are the ones to watch out for.
#FootballAnalysis #FootballSimulation #SmartMoney