Last Friday, @realdonaldtrump sent Bitcoin down over 6% in 30 minutes with a single post about China tariffs
Now we’ve got a $800K notional BTC trade ready if he backs off (and $400K short if he doubles down)
Want to join ours or set up your own?
Hipshot is live!
(1/7)
Hipshot Update:
TLDR - Product on hold for now.
We've been bootstrapping Hipshot since the spring and are proud of the v1 product we've launched. However, with a combination of life events for both cofounders and the decline in the market reducing liquidity, we're having to put new product work for Hipshot on hold.
Current status is that everything works. However, we were in the middle of an iteration cycle to improve the accuracy of Hipshot firings (a few had fired on non-optimal Posts), which will now be left incomplete.
We are excited to pick Hipshot back up later in the new year when our capacity (and hopefully, liquidity) returns!
If you're a user with funds in the system and have questions, feel free to DM us directly here. Note that your funds are safe and can always be accessed by:
1. Navigate to Account Dashboard from the the top right menu
2. Scroll down to Security & Privacy at the bottom left of the page (Red button just above the blue "Logout")
3. "Export Private Key"
This will allow you to copy your private key to your clipboard and add it to your preferred wallet. Note at it's a key, not a seed phrase, so pick the right option when adding it.
Yesterday, Uniswap finally committed to turning on its fee switch. The $UNI token, which HL offers 10x leverage on, moved >40% over the course of hours.
Pop quiz: which other protocols have fee switches that might turn on soon?
Yesterday, Uniswap finally committed to turning on its fee switch. The $UNI token, which HL offers 10x leverage on, moved >40% over the course of hours.
Pop quiz: which other protocols have fee switches that might turn on soon?
@krugermacro@krugermacro late reply here, but on #4 do you think the fed chair nomination is short term bullish (i.e., intraday move) or more long term?
Trying to determine whether it's a good candidate for a Hipshot.
We have one set already on #6
Government shutdown news moved markets over the weekend. Savvy Hipshotters could have profited bigly!
While the shutdown hasn't fully resolved yet our sense is that the market has priced in the end.
Looking for new Hipshots this week
Market outlook for risk assets into year end and beyond
1. Government Shutdown: cautious stance until resolved.
2. Shutdown over: bullish, estimated to be resolved sometime between end of next week and Thanksgiving. Expect BTC +5% or more within 48 hours of deal.
3. FOMC Dec/10: hawkish, as most Fed officials favor a pause as of now, which is not priced in at the moment. Note however that officials may change their stance on rates as economic data comes in and the month progresses.
4. New Fed Chair nomination: estimated to be announced before the next FOMC, to influence the FOMC decision (it could also be soon after); bullish to very bullish.
5. Tax loss selling (crypto only): bearish; all December, mainly last two weeks (of particular importance given relative stocks-crypto performance).
6. Supreme Court's decision on Tariffs: most likely sometime in December, otherwise January, timing fluid; as of now betting markets favor a ruling against Trump, which would be extremely bullish IMO, although some argue such a ruling would be bearish.
7. 2026: very bullish first half of the year, driven by accomodative fiscal and monetary policies.
Yup, I have no idea why this comment by Roberts is being completely dismissed because IMHO it's as close as the Chief Justice will come to an outright endorsement:
"The tariffs are a tax and that's a core power of Congress. But they're a foreign-facing tax, right? And that --foreign affairs is a core power of the executive. And I don't think you can dismiss the consequences. I mean, we didn't stay this case. And one thing is quite clear, is that the foreign-facing tariffs have been quite effective in achieving a particular objective. So I --I don't think you can just separate it. When you say, well, this is a tax, Congress's power, it implicates very directly the President's foreign affairs power."
Has this been priced into market yet? We think not. Uncertainty remains about both the outcome and the timing of it. Hard for the market to react. Waiting for convergence moment which probably won't be until the decision itself is posted
@sonicthehedgor Or at least quit trading full time.
Set your event trades up in advance and let them execute while you do something else or sleep
I wonder where you can do that...
@Derivatives_Ape For individual equities or indices that include dividends you'd probably actually expect the funding rate to be negative for arbs going the other direction
@Derivatives_Ape The funding rate obviously won't stay at 20%/year on average. Delta neutral strats will ramp up to arb the funding rates down to reasonable levels. Deep liquidity in the underlying will make that easier.
Equity perps are hugely valuable for apps like ours to build on top of
The China trade deal isn't the only tariff news that will move the market in the next couple weeks.
Supreme Court hears oral arguments for the legality of Trump's entire 2025 tariff regime on November 5.
We've got our Hipshot loaded