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$BTC — Quick Read (26/08/2025)
Price action is carving a clear down channel on H4/D1. Sellers stepped in hard from ~119k and we’re now testing the lower rail near 109k. Volume spikes are on red candles — classic distribution. Likely trigger: momentum shorting + stops below prior swing lows, with one big panic dump candle on 25–26 Aug accelerating the move.
Key levels: resistance cluster 114–116k (shorts/flip zone). Immediate support 108.5k — a clean H4 close below that targets 106.2k then 104–104.5k. If we reclaim 112–114k with conviction, expect a short squeeze to 118–120k, otherwise continuation lower.
My take / trade idea: bias short while price stays under 114k. Small short in place around 112.8k. Plan to add into weakness at 110–108.5k (DCA zone). TP1 108.5k (trim), TP2 106.2k, TP3 104.5k (final). Manage size — if market snaps back above 116k, flip or reduce exposure. After TP, wait for structure change (higher highs on D1) before hunting longs.
Risk note: quick bounces possible on leveraged liquidations. Keep stops tight, size small, don’t chase. This is my read, not financial advice.
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