HayekWasRight

"I could not help myself. It is my nature."
Then they both sank into the muddy waters of the swiftly flowing river. "Its my Nature", said the scorpion.

[HayekWasRight @HitItLikeHayek]

But a rate #hike is coming next week 🤣 #Fed

[The Kobeissi Letter @KobeissiLetter]

Shocking stat of the day:

~$7.0 trillion worth of T-Bills are currently outstanding, with ~$6.1 trillion maturing within the next year.

Including the remaining maturities, ~$7.5 trillion worth of marketable Treasury debt is maturing in 2026.

Another ~$4.0 trillion matures in 2027, followed by ~$3.5 trillion in 2028.

Meanwhile, if the Fed hikes rates by 75 basis points, annual interest costs on T-bills alone could rise by ~$50 billion, equivalent to 0.15% of GDP.

This comes as much of this debt would be refinanced at higher market rates than those at which it was originally issued.

The US is set to face a massive refinancing wave at higher borrowing costs.

[HayekWasRight @HitItLikeHayek]

And yet the #Fed is gonna #hike rates, thereby admitting they were wrong, that rates must be higher and we're entering a hiking cycle, as a 25bps hike is obv. not gonna move much on its own. Right, right? I mean Trump didn't handpick the Fed chair for lower rates or anything...

[Geiger Capital @Geiger_Capital]

Core CPI is at the lowest level since 2021.

[HayekWasRight @HitItLikeHayek]

Hence why I doubt a #rate #hike is coming #Fed

[Nick Timiraos @NickTimiraos]

Investors have all but concluded the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates next week for the first time in three years. The harder question is what comes after that.

Because almost no one at the central bank thinks a quarter-point increase will do much on its own to bring inflation down, a decision to raise rates next week would reflect a judgment that interest rates have been in the wrong place. If that is the case, one increase won’t fix it.

“If we get a hike next week, certainly we’ll get additional ones,” said Richard Clarida, a former Fed vice chair who is now at Pimco. https://t.co/QfGuNL8YVa

[HayekWasRight @HitItLikeHayek]

@DeItaone Should... shouldn't the treasury secretary kind of, you know, understand it?

[HayekWasRight @HitItLikeHayek]

What is @LinkedIn s problem? I can't access my account due to their fault but I also can't contact support because YOU NEED TO BE LOGGED IN TO DO THAT. Do you hate your users? #LinkedIn

[HayekWasRight @HitItLikeHayek]

Counter-Thesis: this is extremely #bullish because there are no harder workers than the divorced guy who has something to prove to himself once he's back in the workforce.

[Financelot @FinanceLancelot]

Lost job and divorce searches are ramping.

Is the party over?

[HayekWasRight @HitItLikeHayek]

This played out similarly, false breakdown to 2.8$ just before market open, then rose to 3.73$. Overall a bit more boring than I had expected, also much less volume and momentum.

[HayekWasRight @HitItLikeHayek]

$BYND feel like a "breakdown" out of the pennant to 2.7$ around open to draw liquidity and then some upward movement to around 3.8$-4$ due to shorts taking profits is a possibility. Either late today or tmrw then a flush again. Just a scenario, not a guarantee.

[HayekWasRight @HitItLikeHayek]

Is #Gold signalling risk-off as it's tanking (ironic)?

[Peter Mallouk @PeterMallouk]

The S&P 500 is now up 32% since Robert Kiyosaki said “I told you so” back on April 4, claiming the “biggest stock market crash in history” had “arrived” and we were “more than likely in a Depression.” Market timing does not work.

[Charlie Bilello @charliebilello]

The # of jobs in the US has increased by <1% over the past year, the slowest growth rate since March 2021. In the past 50 years, this type of weakness in the jobs market has preceded a Recession & a spike in the Unemployment Rate 100% of the time.

Video: https://t.co/N1kpITYx8z

[HayekWasRight @HitItLikeHayek]

Am I watching the Fed Chair being bullied in 2025?

[Geiger Capital @Geiger_Capital]

Absolutely incredible…

TRUMP: WELL I WOULD LOVE POWELL TO LOWER INTEREST RATES

*slaps him on the back*

[Ayesha Tariq, CFA @AyeshaTariq]

These charts suggest that the dumping of US Treasuries had actually started a while back.

What’s also interesting is that while official sectors have been lowering their positions, foreign private sectors have been filling some of the void.

[HayekWasRight @HitItLikeHayek]

@TheShortBear It's like watching a car crash in slow motion. Sad that things will get worse before they get better.

[HayekWasRight @HitItLikeHayek]

@AlessioUrban Alessio, the entire country is a black swan...

[HayekWasRight @HitItLikeHayek]

@NVIDIAGeForce #BlackMythRTX

[HayekWasRight @HitItLikeHayek]

What... in the world.

[Geiger Capital @Geiger_Capital]

Warren Buffett and Berkshire Hathaway now own 4% of all T-Bills issued to the public…

Buffett has ~$277 Billion.
The Fed has $195 Billion.

Warren Buffett is now a larger holder of US Treasury Bills than the Federal Reserve.

[HayekWasRight @HitItLikeHayek]

Something to keep in mind as the first rate cut draws closer. $SPY $QQQ

[Barchart @Barchart]

On average, the S&amp;P 500 has fallen 23.5% over a period of 195 days from the first Fed cut to the market low. Keep this in mind if the Fed begins to cut rates in September!

[HayekWasRight @HitItLikeHayek]

Breakout time on #Gold? With lower rates coming into sight, it's an interesting candidate.

[HayekWasRight @HitItLikeHayek]

@NickTimiraos This might literally call the top.