Nice opportunity for a DiD paper. How does researchers’ demand for Refine change when their target journals adopt it. With AER/AEJs and Econometrica/QE/TE now using Refine (but not other journals), this seems like a pretty clean setting to study the effect.
We’re proud to announce that Refine has signed partnerships with two leading publishers in economics.
Both the American Economic Association and the Econometric Society now use Refine’s AI-assisted technical verification as part of their publication processes.
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I want to share a bit more about my vision for the Economic Research team at Anthropic in the coming years.
This is a forward-looking vision. Some pieces we’ve yet to develop. Aspects of this work will surely change.
Consider joining the effort.
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https://t.co/5S8VwM13RS
Here's proof that Claude Code can write an entire empirical polisci paper.
To validate my claim that AI agents are coming for polisci "like a freight train", today I had Claude Code fully replicate and extend an old paper of mine estimating the effect of universal vote-by-mail on turnout and election outcome...essentially in one shot.
After careful prompting, Claude Code:
(1) Downloaded the old paper's repo and replicated the past results, translating our old Stata Code into Python
(2) Crawled the web to get updated official election data and census data
(3) Ran new analyses extending the results through 2024
(4) Created new tables and figures
(5) Performed a lit review
(6) Wrote a wholly new paper
(7) Pushed the whole thing to a new github repo
The whole thing took about an hour.
This is an insane paradigm shift in how empirical work is done.
It also validates the point that several people including @BrendanNyhan made yesterday---it's going to be especially easy to scale observational research with AI.
Thanks to @alexolegimas, @arthur_spirling , and many others who gave me feedback. .
Job market candidate Kensuke develops new inference methods for fixed effects in network data, addressing dependence across units and showing their empirical relevance using Italian matched employer–employee data. #EconJobMarket#EconTwitter https://t.co/cXhXV6pyyr
`With correlated errors, the asymptotic normality of β^j breaks down .. the central limit theorem for the t-statistic Tj can still hold .. Tj has a ratio form and the correlation effect of the error term 𝜺 cancels out because it appears in both the numerator and the denominator'
線形回帰分析で,確率的に振る舞う誤差項に相関がある場合の OLS そして標準的な t 値による推論の妥当性。
固定された説明変数 ×
確率的な説明変数 ◯
"Overall, our theory shows that OLS inference is applicable more broadly than the classic theory suggests."
https://t.co/HWICfVFQZb
Happy to see our WP w Shogo Sakabe and @deweinstein (so many years in the making!) out. We examine the role of codifying knowledge in the spread of the Industrial Revolution. A little thread. 1/N
Econometrica is happy to announce that the 2024 Haavelmo Prize for the best econometrics paper has been awarded to Raffaella Giacomini and Toru Kitagawa for their paper, "Robust Bayesian Inference for Set-Identified Models” https://t.co/Pdx619fgvz