hmnk

[Gaurav Srivastava @Gaurav_Cx10]

15 EP (Episodic Pivots) Catalyst Types
Ranked roughly by reliability:
1-Earnings growth 100%+ YoY and QoQ
2-Beats consensus by wide margin
3- Margin expansion with Debt Reduction
4-Sector rotation (whole sector re-rating)
5-Management change (turnaround signal)
6-New product/contract wins/New Market
7-Sales acceleration (not just cost-cutting)
8-IPO breakout (first earnings after IPO)
9-Drug approval (biotech)
10-Regulatory changes/ policy change (favorable)
11-Analyst initiation with strong buy
12-Dividend declaration / buyback announcement
13-Financial engineering (spin-offs, restructuring)
14-Industry structure change
15-Shortages such as commodity or product triggers sudden pricing power (steel, fertilizer, chips, APIs)

[AsymTrading @AsymTrading]

Qullamaggie mentioned about his breakout setup:

There are 3 steps to this setup:
1A big move higher sometime in the past 1-3 months. This move can be anywhere from 30-100%+ and usually lasts a few days to a few weeks.
2An orderly pullback and consolidation with higher lows and tightening range in the consolidation phase.
3A range expansion (breakout) out of that consolidation. The consolidation phase is usually 2 weeks to 2 months. During the consolidation the stock price “surfs” the rising 10- and 20-day. and sometimes toe 50-day moving average.

I’d argue the weekly chart should be the primary chart for evaluating whether the consolidation is healthy. The daily chart is then used for timing the entry.

Here’s why:

Prior advance (1–3 months): On a weekly chart, this should appear as a clear, impulsive move—typically 4–12 weekly bars with minimal overlap. You want to immediately recognize that institutions aggressively accumulated the stock.

Orderly consolidation (2 weeks–2 months): A 2–8 week consolidation is very obvious on a weekly chart because it consists of only 2–8 candles.

A healthy consolidation generally has:
Small-bodied weekly candles.
Higher weekly lows or a relatively flat base.
Declining volatility.
Lightening volume as selling pressure dissipates.
The 10-week moving average (equivalent to roughly the 50-day MA) catching up underneath price.

Breakout: Once the weekly structure is established, switch to the daily chart to identify:
Tight daily closes.
Price riding the 10- and 20-day moving averages.
Volume drying up during the base.
A decisive breakout on expanding volume.

The biggest mistake traders make is focusing only on the daily chart. A daily chart can make a mediocre setup look attractive because of the extra detail. The weekly chart filters out the noise.

If you can’t immediately point to the prior advance and then the orderly pause on the weekly chart, the pattern is probably not as high quality as it appears on the daily.

[hmnk @hnnngmnk]

@Jesse_Livermore @TotemMacro It’s honestly just a hot take trying to clickbait. Capex from AI is an inflationary growth boom but the real question, which she def does not have an answer because no one knows, is whether the boom will generate massive productivity or not.

[Francisco Gómez de Tejada | arquitecto @gomezdetejada]

Lugares de Manhattan, Nueva York, en los que se rodaron algunas icónicas películas.

[stockbee @PradeepBonde]

Reading above 80 are not bearish. Market can keep going up for a year or more after 80 plus readings.

[Wimbledon @Wimbledon]

Time to make their move.

[Benn Eifert 🥷🏴‍☠️ @bennpeifert]

Many people asking about QVR Absolute Return's March 2020 performance. Contrary to popular perception, we were not net long volatility or short the equity market. Performance came from two main sources, one we had on previously, one we put on as things got interesting.

[Seascape Nature @SeascapeNature]

Fireworks in Los Angeles, California 🇺🇸

[Eric Daugherty @EricLDaugh]

🚨 LMAO! President Trump was just spotted watching himself, watching himself on Fox News at America 250

It caused an instant inception effect on the screen 🤣

[cvxv666 @antpalkin]

The most powerful tool in quant trading right now isn't AI. It's a piece of math from 1906 called a Markov chain.

Citadel runs it inside the algorithms behind roughly 20% of all US stock trades - and never lets it outside the building.

Somebody just rebuilt the whole thing where anyone can see it.

There's now an app that runs all this math in two clicks.

Full breakdown below. Save it before you need it.

[Massimo @Rainmaker1973]

Sardinia has over 200 beaches and not one of them disappoints.

[Malachi Maxey @malachimaxeyusa]

Pouring milk directly into a frozen watermelon and scraping it is an absolute game-changer for making instant ice cream. Definitely trying this hack!

[hmnk @hnnngmnk]

@econcallum It’s openrouter i.e. no one really uses it as main if you want to use frontier

[Anand @anandragn]

These are the best themes and stocks in the market right now:

Memory: $MU $SNDK
Storage: $WDC $STX
Compute: $AMD $INTC $ARM
Interconnect/Connectivity: $MRVL $ALAB $CRDO
Foundry: $INTC $TSEM
Semi-equipment: $ASML $LRCX $AMAT $UCTT $ICHR
AI Infra OEMs: $DELL $PENG
Neoclouds: $NBIS $CRWV
BESS: $BE $FLNC
Packaging & Test: $TER $AMKR $AEHR
EMS/RF: $TTMI $SANM $FLEX
Power Semi: $STM $ON $VICR $NVTS $POWI $VSH $WOLF $AOSL
Physical/Edge AI: $OUST $CGNX $AMBQ $OSS
HPC: $WULF $HUT $APLD $GLXY $IREN $CIFR $WYFI $WGMI

A lot of these names already made big moves into the end of last week, so going to be an interesting week with $MU reporting on Wednesday, perhaps some de-risking into the report sounds like a good plan.

Good luck to all!

[Ethan Kho @ethanrkho]

Victor Haghani helped build LTCM & watched it collapse — with winning trades still on the books. The lesson was never what to buy. It was how much.

Victor Haghani (Co-founder @ LTCM | Founder @ Elm Wealth | Author of The Missing Billionaires)

"It wasn't on the selection of the trades. It was on the sizing."

We cover:

- The two decisions every investor makes: what to own and how much, and why everyone fixates on the harder one
- The biased-coin game that bankrupted Wall Street PMs and finance grads: a 60/40 edge handed to them, and they still blew up
- Why the cost of risk is a fee you pay yourself, plus the napkin rule to price it (15% vol = 2.25% a year)
- The Elon problem: 50% vol on your net worth means a ~90% chance of little left in 10 years, before anyone's even bearish
- "The right answer to the wrong question," and why chasing billionaire money wrecks the plan
- The crystal-ball game: hand someone tomorrow's WSJ front page and watch 1 in 6 still go bust
- Claude, GPT, Gemini and Grok play the same game, and the two AIs that actually lost money
- His 92-year-old mother, who day-trades every day and won't hear a word of it

Highlights:
00:00 Right & ruined — the LTCM paradox
01:40 The two decisions: what to invest in vs. how much
02:50 The 60/40 coin & why max-EV bankrupts you
04:00 The experiment: PMs & PhDs sizing it all wrong
07:00 Kelly in plain English — a constant 10–20%
08:20 Why sizing isn't zero-sum, but beating the market is
10:30 Why even pros don't optimize sizing
12:50 The cost of risk is a fee — paid to yourself
15:20 Pricing your own risk: variance as the charge
16:30 Concentrated stock: 30% vol = a 9% toll
20:50 Elon, 50% vol & the log-normal trap
22:45 The right answer to the wrong question
23:35 The real objective: smooth lifetime spending & giving
27:35 The crystal-ball / WSJ front-page game
33:25 Claude, GPT, Gemini & Grok step up to trade
37:40 Claude's 66% hit rate — & the two AIs that lost money
40:35 Can anyone actually beat the market?
50:25 How much risk a young person should take
58:00 Estimating your human capital
1:02:40 The mom who won't stop day-trading
1:07:30 The one rule: if you don't save, nothing else matters

[hmnk @hnnngmnk]

@jukan05 How do prefers trade in SK?

[vintagelover @queennaurelia]

God coded us for each other.

[stockbee @PradeepBonde]

Based on a study of over a hundred thousand moves, I have found that most momentum bursts last 3 to 5 days, and they give you 8 to 40% in 3 to 5 days. So I just sell on the 3rd, 4th, and 5th days. Some give you very little, some give you more gains. So, just time stop kind of thinking.

[hmnk @hnnngmnk]

@TheShortBear Warsh was not hawkish, the comittee was. It’s unlikely they don’t hike this year the forecast of the Core PCE. Now question is if short term inflation will surprise the committee with lower inflation than their forecasts.

[stockbee @PradeepBonde]

This is one of the reasons many beginner traders have issues. They try to trade magnitude moves with duration-move strategies and end up getting chopped.