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$BTC
Flipped longs into shorts here. 0.75 likely rejects
Alright, after a nice move up, price stopped right at our 0.75 level printing quite a few H6 candles now. Means our rejection idea gains more weight and the pullback we talked about from here is likely close. And it's time to translate our idea of being cautious into an actual short.
Was still contemplating whether it's the 0.75 or range high that would reject. I like both levels, the 0.75 lines up with the Yearly open, the 1.0 lines up with the range high and a 5% deviation which takes out most of the large fund YO shorts.
So it all depends on Yesterdays NYO and what the order flow is as I mentioned last post. There are extensive ways to explain what the order flow did and how to describe it. But for simple, clean and strong (meaningful) reversals, especially in a situation where many respectable figures sold spot and many apes short, bigger fish often come in to 1/ pair those shorts with stronger longs in twap version (not affecting premiums as much), and 2/ gobble up the sold spot bags. So a simple look at the spot premiums is enough to perform the conclusion. So yes, spot premiums are a pretty powerful tool.
And indeed, spot premiums remained above 0, which is great high timeframe, but since the whales didn't push it any higher relatively at Yesterdays NYO, it likely means the pullback we have been expecting starts from this region.
On top, excitement locally is also getting high again.
We're still below the 0.75, a significant level (as significant as the 0.25) of our ancient old range.
Waited a while for price to run and print our longs, before finally going short again in expectation of a pullback, but given all reasons, price grabbing our liquidity area, a clear stall at our 0.75 level, ah yes and also local mmd with $ETH, are enough reasons for a short. So makes sense here for me. On top, the 0.5 is also a level of high liquidity left behind. Not uncommon, if moved through the 0.5 quickly, that creates liquidity gaps.
Those liquidity gaps often don't become revisited and are not reliable on their own, but if they are left at the 0.5, that's pretty suspicious to me, so, that level is a good target.
So I'm going in, with half size to start with. TP's will be rather aggressive at the start and drop doesn't have to be big.
As, yes, I am still bullish, this is just an H6 timeframe trade for a pullback, not conflicting the higher timeframe idea.