Looking back at 2020–2021, NIO used to have many 20% daily rallies, so an 8% move today is really nothing.
Back then, two major drivers were massive government liquidity being injected into the economy, and the early-stage hype around the EV sector.
But today, the fundamentals are much stronger: higher delivery volumes, improving vertical integration like in-house chip supply, and even the first profitable quarter. On top of that, battery swapping is moving toward profitability, and NIO Life is performing well and has the potential to become a meaningful business on its own.
With all that in place, once the market fully recognizes this progress, a 20% rally isn’t unrealistic at all,
and yes, $16 is too conservative.