Evan Tackett

I try my best to find value through betting trends.

CFB Record: 21-29-0 | -10.35u
MLB Record: 56-64-1 | -16.32u
NFL Record: 16-6-1 | +10.22u

[Evan Tackett @HoopsLive40]

Home favorites in the playoffs coming off a loss where more than 5 pitchers were used (same series):

24-49 on the RL (32.9%).

Active on Brewers +1.5 (-136).

[Evan Tackett @HoopsLive40]

@trendscenterapp @DanielKarpuc I'd be cautious of data dredging here. Why start at 2019, and why use such a specific total range of 49–54.5? Before 2019, this trend went 117–126–4 ATS. The thresholds just seem cherry-picked to inflate the win rate.

https://t.co/6ys4HaLWJs

[Evan Tackett @HoopsLive40]

@ActionNetworkHQ For those wondering, this info is pretty much useless, here's how this trend has held up across the past 5 seasons:

2025: 53-45-1 ATS
2024: 51-44-2 ATS
2023: 44-50-2 ATS
2022: 58-42 ATS
2021: 50-47-2 ATS

2021-2025: 256-228-7 (52.9%). 1.0% ROI.

[Evan Tackett @HoopsLive40]

Home dogs of 3 points or less in conference games facing a team that is winless on the road (min. 3 GP):

67-100 SU (40.1%).

Active on KENN ML (-134, BetOnline) and WKU ML (-112, BetOnline).

[Evan Tackett @HoopsLive40]

@BrazyStocks @ItsParlayPete @trendscenterapp Literally warned him too.

[Evan Tackett @HoopsLive40]

Conference matchups with a game total between 40 and 45 points, where both teams are playing on fewer than six days of rest:

94-60-6 to the under (61.0%). 16.5% ROI.

Active on FIU/JVST u43.5 (-105, DraftKings).

[Evan Tackett @HoopsLive40]

@ItsParlayPete @trendscenterapp How is it arbitrary when Delaware is a 1.5 point favorite?

[Evan Tackett @HoopsLive40]

@AndersPicks So you're paying money for a program that forces you to have prev. game margin as a filter? I did it for free here:

https://t.co/VNwDtnvBHD

Like I said, the system itself is fine even without the margin.

[Evan Tackett @HoopsLive40]

Home teams in the playoffs coming off a home loss as a favorite that went over, total of 7 or less (same series):

17-3-2 to the over (85.0%). 58.1% ROI.

Active on Guardians/Rays o6.5 (-114, BetRivers).

[Evan Tackett @HoopsLive40]

@AndersPicks If its simply after a win, just remove the condition entirely? That's like saying a team won by 1 run their previous game, but let's look at games where teams won by 5+ runs too? Because they both won, the margin doesn't matter at all! It's just illogical.

[Evan Tackett @HoopsLive40]

@AndersPicks FWIW, I ran the numbers myself and AL dogs in the postseason in conference games after winning G1 by 3-5 runs are 9-2 SU, so your hypothesis was fine, you just overcomplicated it by adding all these arbitary conditions (G3, 1-12 run margin, etc).

[Evan Tackett @HoopsLive40]

@AndersPicks The Guards only won by 4, there's zero reason to look at games where the margin was between 1-12, its too high of a bound. A better system would be looking at AL teams in the postseason in conference games after winning G1 by 3-5 runs, not 1-12.

[Evan Tackett @HoopsLive40]

@DapperD20469612 @eliteempirepick It's because he's buying points so the margin for error is a lot smaller since he's getting worse odds. It'd be different if each play was like 1U on -115 odds, but since he's buying points, he has to up his stake, and each loss hits harder.

[Evan Tackett @HoopsLive40]

@DanielKarpuc @trendscenterapp 👍

[Evan Tackett @HoopsLive40]

@trendscenterapp @DanielKarpuc "This season, home favorites have gone 150-98 ATS (60.48%, +42.2u, 15.22% ROI) when the O/U is 57 or less."

When looking at 1-3 point favorites specifically, they are just 16-14-1 ATS.

Also, the Utah trend is false:

https://t.co/EYH8IFfk3l

[Evan Tackett @HoopsLive40]

Home dogs coming off a 35+ point shutout loss:

14-73 SU (16.1%).

1-3 point dogs specifically:

1-10 SU (9.1%).

Active on Delaware ML (-115, FanDuel).

[Evan Tackett @HoopsLive40]

@arinmont @trendscenterapp Yeah, these trends are dangerous cause you’re assuming regular season = playoffs and that’s just not the case. Now could the game still go under? Absolutely. Does that make the trend good? Not really.