HORUMAR

HORUMAR - A voice for Greater Somali Unification. Resisting fragmentation. Rekindling the Somali spirit: Powered by @SuldanMohamed_ | Contact: [email protected]

[HORUMAR @hormaar]

#HORUMAR is back

With elections looming, the message is clear:

#Somalia needs unity, not division

#Somalia needs Vision, not corruption

A belief in a unified Somali Republic - one people, one flag, one future envisioned by our forefathers

Unity is not a slogan - its SURVIVAL

[Suldan I. Mohamed, MA @SuldanMohamed_]

𝐃𝐨𝐞𝐬 𝐭𝐡𝐞 𝐝𝐞𝐟𝐞𝐚𝐭 𝐨𝐟 𝐭𝐡𝐞 𝐅𝐞𝐝𝐞𝐫𝐚𝐥𝐥𝐲-𝐚𝐥𝐢𝐠𝐧𝐞𝐝 𝐏𝐒𝐅 𝐮𝐧𝐝𝐞𝐫𝐦𝐢𝐧𝐞 𝐓𝐮𝐫𝐤𝐢𝐬𝐡 𝐢𝐧𝐭𝐞𝐫𝐞𝐬𝐭 𝐢𝐧 𝐋𝐚𝐬 𝐐𝐨𝐫𝐞𝐲?

The defeat of the Federally-aligned PSF in Bosaso represents a setback for Mogadishu’s efforts to expand influence in Puntland and potentially complicates wider Turkish interests along Somalia’s northern coastline, including the strategic port of Las Qorey which is currently claimed by #Puntland state.

Puntland’s actions indicate that Garowe is willing to use military means to crush any Federal and by default, Turkish interests in the region.

𝐈𝐬 𝐍𝐨𝐫𝐭𝐡𝐞𝐚𝐬𝐭𝐞𝐫𝐧 𝐒𝐭𝐚𝐭𝐞 𝐭𝐡𝐞 𝐧𝐞𝐰 𝐥𝐚𝐮𝐧𝐜𝐡𝐢𝐧𝐠 𝐩𝐚𝐝 𝐟𝐨𝐫 𝐭𝐡𝐞 𝐅𝐆𝐒?

Las Qorey forming part of the newly formed Northeastern State although it is also claimed by Somaliland and Puntland regions.

PSF commanders have fled to Laascaanood and according to reports, Mogadishu has been deploying weapons to the region in support of the PSF in Bosaso.

So, should Laascaanood be embroiled in disputes between Puntland and the Federal Government underpinned by geopolitics?

I think no. It’s still a young FMS state and faces its own challenges including institution building and Somaliland in the east.

𝐆��𝐨𝐩𝐨𝐥𝐢𝐭𝐢𝐜𝐚𝐥 𝐮𝐧𝐝𝐞𝐫𝐩𝐢𝐧𝐧𝐢𝐧𝐠𝐬

Earlier this week, both Puntland & Jubaland’s Ministries of Fisheries have rejected plans by Mogadishu & Ankara to launch SOMTURK in their regions.

This comes as both regions also rejected Mogadishu’s call to cut relations with the #UAE.

The reality is that Somalia’s coastal politics are increasingly shaped by competing external partnerships.

Abu Dhabi has developed close relationships with Hargeisa, Garowe & Kismayo, while Ankara has become Mogadishu’s strongest strategic partner.

BUT

It is nuanced. Somali local actors aren’t just proxies. Local interest also play a major role including elections.

𝐖𝐡𝐚𝐭 𝐍𝐞𝐱𝐭?

FGS is already managing multiple political & security challenges. So, a confrontation with Puntland would add another major front.

The defeat of PSF does not necessarily end Federal ambitions in the northern, nor does it automatically remove Turkish interests. But it highlights a reality that control and influence along Somalia’s coastline will remain one of the country’s biggest strategic contests.

Can the FGS launch a response?

It’s possible, especially from southern Galkayo & from Northeastern state but the real question, will Dhusamareb & Laascaanood allow their regions to be used as launching while facing major internal challenges themselves?

[Suldan I. Mohamed, MA @SuldanMohamed_]

Check out my latest Substack article: Is the U.S. quietly rewriting its #Somalia strategy?

From AUSSOM funding cuts, a new Puntland security agreement, congressional engagement in Jubaland to growing Red Sea competition & frustration with Mogadishu’s political deadlock...

Washington appears to be moving from state-building to strategic security partnerships.

I explore why now.

Article: https://t.co/hjHh7ULqjQ

[Suldan I. Mohamed, MA @SuldanMohamed_]

#SOMALIA: 𝐑𝐚𝐬 𝐊𝐚𝐦𝐛𝐨𝐨𝐧𝐢 𝟐.𝟎 𝐢𝐧 𝐆𝐚𝐚𝐥𝐤𝐚𝐜𝐲𝐨?

Villa Somalia’s latest adventure ends the only way it knows…

Puntland forces stormed the PSF HQ on the outskirts of Gaalkacyo this morning after hours of heavy fighting. The base is gone. PSF Commander of Ops and Mohamed Diyaano are reportedly in custody.

While al-Shabaab still holds territory & even recently captured the strategic town of #Teedaan in #Hiiraan.

Do you know how many times Teedaan has changed hands since 2022? Three times!

This is why the international partners are frustrated. Stop using SNA for political objectives!

All Somalis should priorities the war against Al-Shabab & IS Somalia. We should also focus on curtailing Israeli influence in the North.

We are under an existential threat!

[Suldan I. Mohamed, MA @SuldanMohamed_]

#𝐏𝐚𝐤𝐢𝐬𝐭𝐚𝐧 𝐚𝐧𝐝 #𝐒�#𝐒𝐨𝐦𝐚𝐥𝐢𝐚 𝐬𝐢𝐠𝐧 �� 𝐃𝐞𝐟𝐞𝐧𝐜𝐞 𝐃𝐞𝐚𝐥 - 𝐖𝐡𝐲 𝐢𝐭 𝐌𝐚𝐭𝐭𝐞𝐫𝐬

🇸🇴🇵🇰 sign a significant MoU on defence cooperation in #Islamabad.

According to public statements, the agreement focused on counterterrorism operations, military training programmes, the exchange of military expertise.

This builds on a 2025 defence cooperation framework approved by 🇸🇴 cabinet that involved Pakistani training for Somali naval personnel among other things.

𝐏𝐚𝐤𝐢𝐬𝐭𝐚𝐧’𝐬 𝐆𝐫𝐨𝐰𝐢𝐧𝐠 𝐈𝐧𝐟𝐥𝐮𝐞𝐧𝐜𝐞 𝐢𝐧 𝐭𝐡𝐞 𝐌𝐢𝐝𝐝𝐥𝐞 𝐄𝐚𝐬𝐭 & 𝐇𝐨𝐫𝐧 𝐨𝐟 𝐀𝐟𝐫𝐢𝐜𝐚

🇵🇰 is steadily expanding its defence relationships across the Middle East and the HoA, positioning itself as a net security provider & defence exporter. Prime example is Saudi-Pakistani Defence Partnership.

🇵🇰 also plays a central in the growing 🇹🇷🇸🇦🇵🇰🇶🇦 partnership in response to 🇮🇱🇦��🇮🇳 axis in the region with conflicts in Sudan, Yemen, Somalia & Libya.

🇸🇴 has already aligned with this geopolitical bloc. In July 2026, 🇸🇴 joined the 🇸🇦-led Bab-el-Mandeb defence coalition which includes 🇵🇰.

However, it’s worth noting that the agreement itself is not a full mutual-defence treaty & implementation will depend on sustained political will.

𝐂𝐚𝐧 𝐒𝐨𝐦𝐚𝐥𝐢𝐚 𝐨𝐛𝐭𝐚𝐢𝐧 𝐟𝐢𝐠𝐡𝐭𝐞𝐫 𝐣𝐞𝐭𝐬?

🇵🇰 offers the joint Pakistani-Chinese JF-17 Thunder which could offer SNA with new aerial capabilities.

🇵🇰 offers an opportunity for 🇸🇴 to rebuild its armed forces. Current geopolitical developments creates the growing interests in Somalia. 🇵🇰 stood by 🇸🇴 when 🇮🇱 undermined Somali sovereignty in Dec 2025.

[Suldan I. Mohamed, MA @SuldanMohamed_]

I genuinely think the issue in #Yemen could align Hargeisa & Mogadishu if approached correctly.

It depends on the leadership.

Any leader in Villa Somalia must condemn an attack on #Berbera or Somali territory. Prosperity in the north benefits Somalis much as the south.

Both have joint interests in curtailing the Houthis on the Bab-elMandeb.

The issue of #Somaliland is an internal matter. Only Somalis can find a solution to an inherently Somali issue.

Somalis must not allow regional geopolitical interests to hijack national interests & self-preservation.

#Somalia

[Suldan I. Mohamed, MA @SuldanMohamed_]

#AFRICA: 𝐇𝐚𝐬 #𝐔𝐒 & #𝐈𝐬𝐫𝐚𝐞𝐥 𝐞𝐦𝐛𝐨𝐥𝐝𝐞𝐧��𝐝 #𝐌𝐨𝐫𝐨𝐜𝐜𝐨 𝐭𝐨 𝐮𝐬𝐞 𝐢𝐦��𝐢𝐠𝐫𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧 𝐭𝐨 𝐩𝐫𝐞𝐬𝐬𝐮𝐫𝐞 𝐒𝐩𝐚𝐢𝐧?

I have been reading several interesting reports suggesting that Morocco has at times relaxed border controls or allowed migrants to cross into #Ceuta as a means of applying political pressure on #Spain.

An interesting question is whether recent support from Washington and Israel has made Rabat more confident in pursuing this approach.

𝐔.𝐒. & 𝐈𝐬𝐫𝐚𝐞𝐥𝐢 𝐚𝐧𝐠𝐞𝐫 𝐚𝐭 𝐒𝐩𝐚𝐢𝐧 𝐨𝐯𝐞𝐫 𝐈𝐫𝐚𝐧 𝐖𝐚𝐫

In recent months, Trump & Netanyahu have been attacking PM Sanchez & Spain for their position on Iran & Palestine.

Coincidentally, House Report 119-631, released in late April 2026 by the Appropriations Committee. The report noted “that the Spanish-administered cities of Ceuta and Melilla are located in Moroccan territory and remain the subject of Morocco’s longstanding claim”.

Although the report is non-binding, it marked the first time such language had appeared in a congressional appropriations report. The principal author of the wording was Rep. Mario Diaz-Balart , a longtime Florida Republican closely aligned with the Trump administration.

The timing is notable, as the report emerged shortly after Spain reportedly refused U.S. access requests relating to the jointly operated Rota and Morón bases.

During the current crisis, Israel’s UN ambassador also referred to Ceuta and Melilla as “colonial enclaves.”

Since when did the U.S. and Israel become champions of anti-colonialism?

𝐌𝐨𝐫𝐨𝐜𝐜𝐨’𝐬 𝐮𝐬𝐞 𝐨𝐟 𝐦𝐢𝐠𝐫𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧 𝐚𝐬 𝐩𝐨𝐥𝐢𝐭𝐢𝐜𝐚𝐥 𝐥𝐞𝐯𝐞𝐫𝐚𝐠𝐞

There is already a precedent for migration flows coinciding with diplomatic disputes between Morocco and Spain.

Below are examples:

1. May 2021: Spain allowed leader of Western Sahara to seek medical treatment - 🇲🇦 allowed illegal migrants to storm the island.

2. July 2026: PM Sanchez visits #Algeria, 🇲🇦 biggest geopolitical rival. Few days later, 50,000 people somehow storm the island.

𝐎𝐯𝐞𝐫𝐚𝐥𝐥: 𝐒𝐮𝐩𝐩𝐨𝐫𝐭𝐢𝐧𝐠 𝐅𝐚����-𝐑𝐢𝐠𝐡𝐭 𝐄𝐮𝐫𝐨𝐩𝐞𝐚𝐧𝐬 𝐏𝐚𝐫𝐭𝐢𝐞𝐬 - 𝐔𝐒 & 𝐈𝐬𝐫𝐚𝐞𝐥𝐢 𝐅𝐨𝐫𝐞𝐢𝐠𝐧 𝐏𝐨𝐥𝐢𝐜𝐲 𝐈𝐧𝐭𝐞𝐫𝐞𝐬𝐭

While this provides short-term geopolitical ammunition for the U.S.-Israeli axis, it also feeds into the greater geopolitical playbook, one outlined in Trump’s national security plans involving Europe - supporting far-right parties to undermine the EU. Similarly to the Israelis, that also support far-right figures like Victor Orban etc because there is a similar anti-Islam & anti-Palestine rhetoric amongst these groups.

We already see far-right groups using this as evidence of an invasion. This isn’t a coincidence.

[Suldan I. Mohamed, MA @SuldanMohamed_]

Congratulations to our brothers and sisters in #WaqooyiBari 🇸🇴

The first year of building a new government is never easy. It comes with challenges, frustrations & inevitably those who lose patience or were never truly serious about the project.

But one thing is undeniable: Waqooyi Bari exists.

And in its first year, it has already shown more promise than some FMS that have existed for years.

Waqooyi Bari stands at the frontline against Israeli incursion & remains at the heart of Somali unity.

Hambalyo, Hambalyo, Hambalyo! 🇸🇴

#Somalia #WaqooyiBari

[Suldan I. Mohamed, MA @SuldanMohamed_]

“If we do not find our interests served by the Federal Government of #Somalia, we will leave…

Whether we received or not, we exist”, said Firdhiye.

This comes amid allegations that development projects have been withheld from #Laascaanood.

[Suldan I. Mohamed, MA @SuldanMohamed_]

“For three years, Northeastern State has refrained from attacking anyone. However, from today we will attack any that attacks us.

(If Hargeisa continues its activities), we will retialate.

As for those that switched to Somaliland, add them to your POWs”, said Northeastern State leader, Firdhiye following recent events.

This comes NE state Parliament voted to prosecute POWs in #Laascaanood.

Message is clear.

#Somalia

[Suldan I. Mohamed, MA @SuldanMohamed_]

The Saudi-Houthi conflict is back and it has direct consequences for #Somalia and the northern Somali coast.

I’ve just published a new piece examining how a renewed conflict across the Gulf of Aden could reshape geopolitics including:

🇸🇦🇦🇪 Saudi-UAE rivalry in Yemen
🇸🇴 Somalia’s foreign policy
🇺🇸🇮🇱🇮🇷 A wider regional war
🇸🇴 The possibility of a Houthi attack on Berbera

Read here 👇

https://t.co/lp2jFy7Nn1

[Suldan I. Mohamed, MA @SuldanMohamed_]

𝐑𝐄𝐏𝐎𝐑𝐓𝐒: 𝐀𝐛𝐝𝐢𝐫𝐚𝐬𝐡𝐢𝐝 𝐉𝐚𝐧𝐚𝐧 & 𝐉𝐮𝐛𝐚𝐥𝐚𝐧𝐝’𝐬 𝐀𝐡𝐦𝐞𝐝 𝐌𝐚𝐝𝐨𝐛𝐞 𝐚𝐫𝐞 𝐬𝐞𝐭 𝐟𝐨𝐫 𝐭𝐚𝐥𝐤𝐬 𝐢𝐧 𝐍𝐚𝐢𝐫𝐨𝐛𝐢 𝐌𝐞𝐝𝐢𝐚𝐭𝐞𝐝 𝐛𝐲 #𝐊𝐞𝐧𝐲𝐚

Reports are emerging that #Kenya could facilitate talks btw NISA Chief in Gedo, Abdirashid Janan & Jubaland strongman, Ahmed Madobe in a major blow to Villa Somalia.

Janan served as Mogadishu main actor in Gedo & helped capture Beled Xaawo.

However, like I’ve always said, Janan is not trustworthy & is wanted for war crimes.

Let’s not forget, Janan served as Madobe’s Security Minister. He worked closely with Kenyan intelligence in 2021 to attack #BeledHawo.

Few months ago, the FGS-appointed Gedo administration accused Villa Somalia of neglect & rejoined with Kismayo.

Again, further mismanaged of the Jubaland crisis by Villa Somalia while it puts all its attention on #Galkayo & #Bosaso.

#Somalia

[Suldan I. Mohamed, MA @SuldanMohamed_]

𝐒𝐭𝐫𝐨𝐧𝐠𝐥𝐲 𝐜𝐨𝐧𝐝𝐞𝐦𝐧 𝐭𝐡𝐞 𝐯𝐢𝐨𝐥𝐞𝐧𝐜𝐞 𝐢𝐧 #𝐆𝐞𝐞𝐫𝐢𝐬𝐚, #𝐀𝐰𝐝�#𝐀𝐰𝐝𝐚𝐥 𝐨𝐯𝐞�� 𝐭𝐡𝐞 𝐩𝐚𝐬𝐭 𝟒𝟖𝐡𝐫𝐬.

𝐓𝐢𝐦𝐞𝐥𝐢𝐧𝐞 𝐨𝐟 𝐞𝐯𝐞𝐧𝐭𝐬 𝐢𝐧 𝐭𝐡𝐞 𝐯𝐢𝐥𝐥𝐚𝐠��:

Wednesday night: Businesses owned by local residents were set ablaze by militia groups crossing from #Sitti.

Thursday morning: #Somaliland forces entered the village. Fighting broke out between the militia and Somaliland units, resulting in injuries on both sides.

Friday: Both Somaliland forces and the militia deployed reinforcements, with further exchanges of gunfire reported & fatalities.

𝐂𝐮𝐫𝐫𝐞𝐧𝐭 𝐚𝐬𝐬𝐞𝐬𝐬𝐦𝐞𝐧𝐭: The deployment of additional Somaliland forces suggests the village is considered strategically important.

Djibouti working in concert with Villa Somalia, continues to seek to inflame clan tensions in the region as part of a broader strategy of destabilisation.

It is regrettable that the Federal Government under Hassan Sheikh that argues for Somali unity puts Somalis against one another.

Relying on clan-based conflict as a means of preserving Somali unity is beyond counterproductive.

Such an approach only deepens divisions and fuels generational resentment.

𝐑𝐞𝐩𝐨𝐫𝐭𝐞𝐝 𝐜𝐚𝐬𝐮𝐚𝐥𝐭𝐢𝐞𝐬:

Somaliland: At least 2 soldiers killed and 1 wounded.

Militia: At least 3 fighters killed.

Notably, local Awdal defence fighters have remained outside the fighting.

#Somalia

[Suldan I. Mohamed, MA @SuldanMohamed_]

#LATEST: As expected, FGS has welcomed proposals by the Somali Unity Party led by Sharmarke and called on other opposition factions to follow suit.

The tactic was evident from beginning ⤵️

[Suldan I. Mohamed, MA @SuldanMohamed_]

#𝐒𝐨𝐦𝐚𝐥𝐢𝐚 𝐄𝐥𝐞𝐜𝐭��𝐨𝐧 𝐓𝐚𝐥𝐤𝐬: 𝐃𝐚𝐲 𝟏 - 𝐖𝐡𝐚𝐭’𝐬 𝐭𝐡𝐞 𝐋𝐚𝐭𝐞𝐬𝐭?

The Federal Government held talks with the opposition mediated by ambassadors from the U.S., U.K., #EU, #UN and #Türkiye.

The FGS separately held talks with representatives of the Somali Future Council comprising of the Mogadishu-based Somali Salvation Council led by former President @HESharifShAhmed & the FMSs of #Puntland & Jubaland as well as Nabad & Nolol opposition party led by former President @M_Farmaajo.

Additionally, a new opposition faction led by former PM @OmarSharmarke has also entered talks with the FGS, having held meetings with foreign representatives on Thursday.

𝐇𝐚𝐬 𝐕𝐢𝐥𝐥𝐚 𝐒𝐨𝐦𝐚𝐥𝐢𝐚 𝐒𝐮𝐜𝐜𝐞𝐞𝐝𝐞𝐝 𝐢𝐧 𝐅𝐫𝐚𝐜𝐭𝐮𝐫𝐢𝐧𝐠 𝐎𝐩𝐩𝐨𝐬𝐢𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧?

The opposition has fractured into three groups, each representing their own election model alongside Villa Somalia.

Earlier this year, the FGS succeeded in making a deal with some members of the opposition led Omar Sharmarke called the Somali Unity Party.

This political manoeuvre has allowed Villa Somalia to successfully divide the opposition, weakening their position in negotiations.

However, reports indicate that Nabad & Nolol and the Somali Future Council see eye to eye on certain elements of a new election model whereas Somali Unity Party led by Sharmarke is more different, closer to Villa Somalia’s model.

𝐖𝐡𝐚𝐭 𝐍𝐞𝐱𝐭 - 𝐀𝐧 𝐀𝐠𝐫𝐞𝐞𝐦𝐞𝐧𝐭?

Groups are set to hold press conferences & release press statements ahead of more talks.

Somali Future Council & Villa Somalia have proposed their election models which appear vastly different.

Nabad & Nolol are set outline theirs with Midnimo Qaran proposing a model.

Sharmarke-led Somali Unity Party proposals include one national commission similar to Villa Somalia.

It’s like that Somali Unity Party & Villa Somalia will reach an agreement. A symbol the FGS will use to argue its model has partial support from the opposition.

[Suldan I. Mohamed, MA @SuldanMohamed_]

𝐏𝐫𝐞𝐥𝐢𝐦𝐢𝐧𝐚𝐫𝐲 𝐌𝐞𝐞𝐭𝐢𝐧𝐠𝐬 𝐄𝐧𝐝 𝐀𝐡𝐞𝐚𝐝 𝐨𝐟 𝐊𝐞𝐲 𝐒𝐨𝐦𝐚𝐥𝐢 𝐄𝐥𝐞𝐜𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧 𝐓𝐚𝐥𝐤𝐬 - 𝐖𝐡𝐚𝐭 𝐇𝐚𝐩𝐩𝐞𝐧𝐞𝐝?

Fresh details have emerged from preliminary discussions held ahead of the high-stakes political negotiations scheduled for Thursday between FGS & opposition groups. Talks on Thursday are set to be mediated by Ankara as well as Washington D.C. & London.

According to reports, Tuesday’s meetings orchestrated by Ankara largely focused on addressing Turkish concerns after opposition groups rejected Ankara’s proposal to act as the sole mediator in the political process.

Turkish officials are concerned about the growing distrust from the opposition especially as Puntland & Jubaland rejected participation in talks mediated by Ankara as a neutral actor.

Both FMS will participate in Thursday’s talks.

𝐕𝐢𝐥𝐥𝐚 𝐒𝐨𝐦𝐚𝐥𝐢𝐚 𝐒𝐞𝐞𝐤𝐬 𝐑𝐢𝐯𝐚𝐥 𝐎𝐩𝐩𝐨𝐬𝐢𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧 𝐆𝐫𝐨𝐮𝐩𝐬 𝐀𝐦𝐢𝐝 𝐄𝐥𝐞𝐜𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧 𝐍𝐞𝐠𝐨𝐭𝐢𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧𝐬

In a strategic political move, FGS argues that the opposition cannot be represented by a single political bloc.

A faction of the opposition that entered a political agreement with Villa Somalia earlier this year led by Omar Sharmarke seek to also enter negotiations & propose a middle options.

Critics argue this faction is in cahoots with Villa Somalia although Sharmarke denied this in a recent interview with Dawan TV.

The opposition is further fractured by difference btw Nabad & Nolol and Somali Salvation Council due to the dislike figures like Abdirahman Abdishakur have for former President Farmaajo but also because N&N seeks differentiate itself from what a lot of Somalis consider career politicians & failed leaders in the Salvation Council.

𝐖𝐡𝐚𝐭 𝐃𝐨𝐞𝐬 𝐭𝐡𝐞 𝐎𝐩𝐩𝐨𝐬𝐢𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧 𝐏𝐫𝐨𝐩𝐨𝐬𝐞?

Somali Future Council composing of the Mogadishu opposition, Jubaland & Puntland proposed a “Transitional Direct Elections Model”.

The proposal would retain the 4.5 power-sharing formula during a transitional period while introducing direct voting in four districts within each FMS as an initial step toward nationwide 1P1V elections.

It also calls for the creation of a joint electoral commission comprising representatives from the FGS, FMS & opposition while suspending of the current electoral process until a consensus-based framework is agreed.

𝐒𝐞𝐜𝐮𝐫𝐢𝐭𝐲: 𝐀 𝐌𝐚𝐣𝐨𝐫 𝐂𝐨𝐧𝐜𝐞𝐫𝐧

FGS reportedly accused members of the opposition of maintaining forces, allegations that opposition figures reject, instead claiming a security detail as they are targets for groups like Al-Shabab.

The dispute could result in adopting security protocols similar to those implemented during 2021 electoral crisis when international partners mediated a security arrangement.

𝐖𝐡𝐚𝐭 𝐍𝐞𝐱𝐭?

Previous mediation attempts led primarily by Ankara failed after opposition groups insisted that any facilitator must be accepted by all parties.

Similarly, talks mediated by U.K. & U.S. failed which was followed by clashes in Mogadishu.

Will it work this time? Hassan Sheikh is unapologetically determined to implement his plans - he has the forces.

Meanwhile the opposition remain firm their rejection. FMSs of Puntland & Jubaland have cut relations with Mogadishu.

It’s hard to see a compromise. International pressure could help. #Somalia

[Suldan I. Mohamed, MA @SuldanMohamed_]

𝐒𝐨𝐮𝐭𝐡𝐰𝐞𝐬𝐭 𝐒𝐭𝐚𝐭𝐞: 𝐈𝐧𝐚𝐮𝐠𝐮𝐫𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧, 𝐀𝐢𝐫𝐬𝐭𝐫𝐢𝐤𝐞𝐬, 𝐌𝐨𝐫𝐭𝐚𝐫 𝐀𝐭𝐭𝐚𝐜𝐤 & 𝐧𝐞𝐰 𝐕𝐢𝐜𝐞 𝐏𝐫𝐞𝐬𝐢𝐝𝐞𝐧𝐭

Federal Leaders attended the disputed inauguration of former BJFS Speaker & key Villa Somalia, Adan Madobe as leader of Southwest State.

This comes as Turkish F16 fighter jets launched airstrikes on the outskirts of #Baydhabo as well as mortar attacks by pro-Laftagareen forces on Southwest state house with security remaining a major issue.

𝐕𝐏 𝐑𝐨𝐥𝐞 & 𝐐𝐮𝐞𝐬𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧 𝐨𝐟 𝐋𝐨𝐰𝐞𝐫 𝐒𝐡𝐚𝐛𝐞𝐥𝐥𝐞

In a speech this afternoon, Hirshabelle state leader, Ali Gudlawe stated that the clan constituency of President Hassan Sheikh must have a VP role in Southwest state.

Meanwhile, concerns have been raised by South West State politicians regarding alleged plans to incorporate the Lower Shabelle region into Banaadir to form a new administrative unit, a move they argue would significantly reduce the territory of South West State.

On the back of this, ousted leader Laftagareen continues to dispute the election. His allies hacked SWS State House Facebook page last week while his forces continue a hit & run approach in #Baydhabo.

Amid the uncertainty, one thing remains clear: the political dispute over South West State is far from over and will only continue to escalate further.

#Somalia

[Suldan I. Mohamed, MA @SuldanMohamed_]

𝐕𝐢𝐥𝐥𝐚 𝐒𝐨𝐦𝐚𝐥𝐢𝐚 𝐂𝐨𝐧𝐬𝐨𝐥𝐢𝐝𝐚𝐭𝐞𝐬 𝐏𝐨𝐰𝐞𝐫 𝐢𝐧 𝐀𝐥𝐥𝐢𝐞𝐝 𝐅𝐌𝐒, 𝐏𝐮𝐧𝐭𝐥𝐚𝐧𝐝 & 𝐉𝐮𝐛𝐚𝐥𝐚𝐧𝐝 𝐍𝐞𝐱𝐭? - 𝐌𝐲 𝐀𝐬𝐬𝐞𝐬𝐬𝐦𝐞𝐧𝐭

President Hassan Sheikh’s arrival in #Baydhabo for the inauguration of Southwest State Adan Madobe is more than a ceremonial visit. It reflects the Federal Government’s broader effort to strengthen its position in cooperative FMS before tackling its unresolved disputes with Jubaland & Puntland.

Madobe’s “election” after months of political upheaval in Southwest State, gives Villa Somalia a close federal ally in one of #Somalia’s most strategically important states despite ongoing security issues with SWS forces loyal to former leader Laftagareen’s consistently attacking the transitional capital.

At the same time, relations with #Galmudug appear to have stabilised after recent political understandings between Hassan Sheikh and Ahmed Qoor-Qoor, while #Hirshabelle has remained broadly aligned with the Federal Government.

𝐌𝐨𝐠𝐚𝐝𝐢𝐬𝐡𝐮-𝐓ü𝐫𝐤𝐢𝐲𝐞 𝐒𝐞𝐜𝐮𝐫𝐢𝐭𝐲 𝐀𝐥𝐢𝐠𝐧𝐦𝐞𝐧𝐭 𝐃𝐮𝐫𝐢𝐧𝐠 𝐒𝐨𝐦𝐚𝐥𝐢𝐚’𝐬 𝐏𝐨𝐥𝐢𝐭𝐢𝐜𝐚𝐥 𝐃𝐞𝐚𝐝𝐥𝐨𝐜𝐤

The security dimension has also become more visible.

Hassan Sheikh’s visit comes amid heightened security, with Turkish support including reported F-16 deployments underscoring the growing defence partnership between Ankara and Mogadishu and the FGS’s determination to secure key political centres in the South.

Against this backdrop, Villa Somalia appears focused on consolidating influence where it has political leverage before addressing the far more difficult standoffs with Jubaland and Puntland, both of which remain at odds with Mogadishu over constitutional reforms, elections and federal authority.

The creation & deployment of the 54th division led by controversial Jimcale in Puntland indicates Villa Somalia has its eyes set on #Puntland next.

Meanwhile, much of the opposition remains concentrated on the political battle in Mogadishu.

Whether by design or circumstance, that has allowed Villa Somalia to continue reshaping the political landscape in several FMS with little political resistance.

[Suldan I. Mohamed, MA @SuldanMohamed_]

Opposition party leader Mohamud Hashi directly responds to Somaliland leader Abdirahman Irro following a scathing attack launched by Irro in speech on Wednesday.

“Ka badheedh in aad ka tanaasushey ku dhaqanka & ilaalinta Diinta Islaamka”.

Hashi also condemned attacks against religious figures in the region that questioned the regional administration in #Hargeisa.

Tensions are growing the Somaliland region over Israeli recognition & Jerusalem office. The Somaliland administration has clamped down on criticism in recent weeks.

#Somalia

[Suldan I. Mohamed, MA @SuldanMohamed_]

𝐇𝐚𝐩𝐩𝐲 𝐈𝐧𝐝𝐞𝐩𝐞𝐧𝐝𝐞𝐧𝐜𝐞 & 𝐔𝐧𝐢𝐟𝐢𝐜𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧 𝐃𝐚𝐲 𝐭𝐨 𝐭𝐡𝐞 𝐒𝐨𝐦𝐚𝐥𝐢 𝐩𝐞𝐨𝐩𝐥𝐞 🇸🇴

66 years ago today, the northern & southern regions divided by colonialism reunited with the goal of unifying all Somali people living under occupation in French Somaliland, the Western Somali Region & the Northern Frontier District.

66 years on and the Somali Republic is now in its third formation, yet we seem further away from preserving the unity of just two Somali regions, let alone achieving the wider dream of Somali unity.

The 1977 war ended in defeat after the world turned against #Somalia & the civil war that followed entrenched divisions and mistrust among Somali clans.

But I don’t believe it’s over.

Previous generations since the golden generation of the 1960s may have failed, but our generation has a golden opportunity to build a stronger future NOW.

Global sentiment & politics has changed.

#Somalia is more relevant in international & regional politics than ever before.

Let’s not waste it ✅🇸🇴

Hambalyo!

[Suldan I. Mohamed, MA @SuldanMohamed_]

#HARGEISA: An angry Abdirahman Irro of the separatist #Somaliland administration delivers a speech at a conference held by the ruling Wadani party calling on his opposition to “grow testicles” and admit they oppose Somaliland recognition by #Israel if they reject the opening of a diplomatic office in Jerusalem.

This comes as Kaah & other opposition voices in the Somaliland region criticised the opening of a diplomatic office in Jerusalem.

#Somalia