@DefiWimar This is bad.
However, we are still seeing 3 oil tankers attempting to cross the Strait right now and we only need 4 to reduce the daily deficit to 0. Fingers crossed.
Check our dashboard for real-time updates. https://t.co/KB8zwjbyK4
@MKhamenei_ir This is bad.
However, we are still seeing 3 oil tankers attempting to cross the Strait right now.
Check our dashboard for real-time updates. https://t.co/KB8zwjbyK4
@cryptorover This is false.
Capacity of rail delivery only constitues 1.5% of Strait traffic (150,000 bpd out of 20M bpd).
Oil prices are exploding with Crude Oil hitting $100 again.
Check our website for real-time vessel movement in the Strait. https://t.co/KB8zwjbyK4
@HormuzLetter And oil prices are exploding with Crude Oil hitting $100 again.
3 oil tankers have started moving attempting to cross the Strait as well just now.
Check our website for real-time movement. https://t.co/KB8zwjbyK4
@KobeissiLetter And oil prices are exploding with Crude Oil hitting $100 again.
3 oil tankers have started moving attempting to cross the Strait as well just now.
Check our website for real-time movement. https://t.co/KB8zwjbyK4
This confirms ~ 13-day onshore storage estimate: Iran is now using containers and "junk storage" (disused tanks in poor condition) in Ahvaz and Asaluyeh to avoid cutting production. And now rail.
They're delay tactics measured in days, not weeks.
1. Why rail is a dead end: Iran's own senior rail transport expert Morteza Naserian told Mehr News there are only 2 rail corridors to China, never used for petroleum, with severely limited capacity and zero bulk crude infrastructure.
2. The floating storage "fix" is equally thin. Iran pulled NASHA (IMO 9079107), a 30-year-old retired VLCC, out of the breakers. NASHA buys ~48 hours.
3. Jask terminal storage tanks have reportedly already hit maximum capacity as of April 25. Some tankers are now anchored near Kharg acting as improvised overflow. a fleet the Islamic Republic can't replicate at scale.
4. The 2020 precedent that some point out to (85% storage utilization + 120 Mbbl afloat) was managed under very different conditions (I was watching it from the inside): it was sanctions without a naval blockade, and with active export channels still partially open. That escape valve is gone now, and Iran's tankers (including its ghost fleet) are already filled up with 166M barrels.
5. Bottom line: containers, junk tanks, retired VLCCs, and rail fantasies are not a storage strategy. They're the last moves of a system running out of room, exactly on the timeline that was estimated.
Don't forget about the gasoline shortage clock.
https://t.co/isLzXVdFWR
And the traffic in the Strait is expoliding to near pre-war levels with 45 moving vessels and already 15 crossings in the early morning.
However, only 3 oil tanker crossings so far.
With reroutes and reserve releases amounting to 12m BPD, we currently need 4 oil tanker at 2M barrels of oil each crossing to reach a 0 deficit for the day and 5 oil tankers at 2M barrels of oil each to reach a small surplus.
Fingers crossed for a small surplus today potentially.
You can monitor the traffic on our website yourself in the meantime.
https://t.co/r2SnV0dJpr
Interestingly, we're seeing an extreme uptake in Strait traffic with already 15 crossings in the early morning.
However, only 3 oil tanker crossings so far.
With reroutes and reserve releases amounting to 12m BPD, we currently need 4 oil tanker at 2M barrels of oil each crossing to reach a 0 deficit for the day and 5 oil tankers at 2M barrels of oil each to reach a small surplus.
Fingers crossed for a small surplus today potentially.
You can monitor the traffic on our website yourself in the meantime. https://t.co/r2SnV0dJpr
We're seeing an extreme uptake in Strait traffic with already 15 crossings in the early morning.
However, only 3 oil tanker crossings so far.
With reroutes and reserve releases amounting to 12m BPD, we currently need 4 oil tanker at 2M barrels of oil each crossing to reach a 0 deficit for the day and 5 oil tankers at 2M barrels of oil each to reach a small surplus.
Fingers crossed for a small surplus today potentially.
You can monitor the traffic on our website yourself in the meantime.
The Kuban Agrarian University in Russia decided to invite a Russian soldier fighting in Ukraine to speak online to a room full of their students to encourage them to sign up with the Russian Army
Instead, a Ukrainian soldier appeared on the screen
Iran is running out of storage for oil. Once they stop pumping, it can damage oil field production capacity.
You can't just flip the on/off switch on oil wells. If you stop, clogging happens. This can cause massive reduction in the amount of oil you get out of that oil well, requiring expensive and time consuming rework.
And tanker captains are acting accordingly, almost no movement in the Strait today.
The Strait is not effectively shut down again. Maybe we can get 1 oil tanker through the transit gate today if we're lucky.
This is not enough to satisfy oil fears, we need at least 4-5 tankers per day to sustain current oil demand somewhat without panic breaking out again.
Track real-time movements on our website. https://t.co/l0DYiTSjvy
@MarioNawfal And traffic in the Strait is exploding.
15 oil tankers (black) are now moving towards crossing the Strait, more than anytime in the war.
Check our website for real-time vessel movements. https://t.co/KB8zwjbyK4
@REDBOXINDIA And the Strait is going crazy.
15 oil tankers (black) are now moving towards crossing the Strait, more than anytime in the war.
Check our website for real-time vessel movements. https://t.co/KB8zwjbyK4
@FirstSquawk And the Strait is going crazy.
14 oil tankers (black) are now moving towards crossing the Strait, more than anytime in the war.
Check our website for real-time vessel movements. https://t.co/KB8zwjbyK4