HansPeter Michaelsen

Independent defense analyst. Retired RDAF officer/military analyst and active drummer. Tweets: Defence politics, military ops. & technology, F-35 and Arctic.

[Roman Sheremeta 🇺🇸🇺🇦 @rshereme]

A sobering message from a history teacher:

I’ve spent years teaching both American and international government. We study the full spectrum of systems: from well-established democracies like the UK, to hybrid regimes like Mexico and Nigeria, to authoritarian states like russia, Iran, and China. Each case study offers a lesson — but lately, the most unsettling one comes from within our own borders.

One key lesson I teach my students: there’s never a single, defining moment when a democracy falls. No leader ever declares, “I am now a dictator.” The erosion is subtle. Gradual. Legal on the surface. And often supported — or at least tolerated — by the public.

Look at russia. When Putin took power in 2000, it had the trappings of democracy: elections, a constitution, federalism, and a separation of powers. Today, those structures remain on paper, but functionally, they mean nothing. Putin holds absolute power — and is, perhaps not coincidentally, admired by Donald Trump.

So, how do we recognize when a democracy is backsliding? There are clear warning signs — every first-year political science student learns them. Here are a few I share with my students:

1. When the Legislative Branch yields to the Executive.

Congress was designed to check presidential power. If Congress becomes subservient — whether through inaction or complicity — the balance envisioned by the Constitution collapses. Putin faced early pushback from the Duma. He eventually sidelined, intimidated, and replaced dissenters with loyalists. Sound familiar?

2. When corporatism becomes normalized.

In an authoritarian slide, industries and oligarchs cozy up to power in exchange for favors. In russia, compliant billionaires got rich. Critics were jailed or exiled. We’ve seen similar patterns here: tax breaks, deregulation, and media consolidation benefiting those aligned with Trump.

3. When adherence to the Constitution becomes optional.

Rule of law is foundational to democracy. Yet we’ve seen moments when Constitution was ignored under Trump’s leadership. In healthy democracies, that shouldn't even be a question.

4. When enemies — internal and external — are manufactured.

Authoritarians thrive by uniting people against scapegoats. Vulnerable communities become targets. Historic allies become threats. The purpose? To consolidate power under the guise of protecting the nation.

5. When personal loyalty to the leader outweighs loyalty to the nation.

Public servants swear oaths to the Constitution, not individuals. But when loyalty shifts toward one man — especially among military, law enforcement, and intelligence — democracy is in grave danger.

Here’s the hardest truth: if America continues down this path, it won’t be because we were blind. It won’t happen in darkness. It will happen in plain sight — and with our permission.

Democracy is not self-sustaining. It survives only when we choose it — over and over again.

[HansPeter Michaelsen @hphmic]

@HthHans We cannot man the existing frigates. How could we possibly man additional frigates?

[Claus Mathiesen @clausmat1]

Fat det nu.
1) USA er ude af engagementet i forsvaret af Ukraine. Og vil insistere på, at alle andre dropper støtten til Ukraine.
2) USA er ude af Nato i forhold til engagementet i Europa.

[HansPeter Michaelsen @hphmic]

@AndreasKrogDk Tænker det vil være klogt at købe nogle våben til vore F-35 kampfly.

[HansPeter Michaelsen @hphmic]

@HthHans Great news and about time.

[Justin Bronk @Justin_Br0nk]

On F-35 fears, I get it - there is real dependency.
But if all your targeting capacity, BLOS comms, penetrating/orbital ISR and the munitions you assume you’d fight with in a war are US-provided; then dependency on the US for MDFs and ALIS/ODIN for F-35 isn’t your main problem.

[HansPeter Michaelsen @hphmic]

Probably the most versatile surveillance system on the market. Excellent choice as a Nordic capability. #dkforsvar

[Tomi 🇺🇦🇫🇮🇪🇺 @TallbarFIN]

Sweden, Finland & Denmark are currently discussing the acquisition of a joint intelligence capability.

It is about the GlobalEye reconnaissance aircraft developed by Swedish Saab.

Radar is capable of land, sea and air surveillance. System's range is 600 kilometers.

[Tomi 🇺🇦🇫🇮🇪🇺 @TallbarFIN]

Sweden, Finland & Denmark are currently discussing the acquisition of a joint intelligence capability.

It is about the GlobalEye reconnaissance aircraft developed by Swedish Saab.

Radar is capable of land, sea and air surveillance. System's range is 600 kilometers.

[HansPeter Michaelsen @hphmic]

@Karen51West Gad vide om grønlænderne gerne vil være ligesom Puerto Rico med is?

[HansPeter Michaelsen @hphmic]

@MadsKorsager Det kan ikke blive for meget, når det er jagerfly.

[HansPeter Michaelsen @hphmic]

@AndreasKrogDk @forsvaretdk Præcis.

[HansPeter Michaelsen @hphmic]

@SimonHoejbjerg Meld ham til trommeundervisning i musikskolen.

[HansPeter Michaelsen @hphmic]

Præcist. Og Ruslands skræmmeretorik virker hver gang. 😒

[Claus Mathiesen @clausmat1]

Rusland har i over 1.000 dage banket løs på militære og civile mål i Ukraine med våbensystemer med langt over 300 km rækkevidde.
Og nu sidder man og skælver ved tanken om Rusland reaktion, fordi Ukraine har fået begrænset tilladelse til at bruge et våben med 300 km rækkevidde.

[(((Tendar))) @Tendar]

Finland is the living proof for several facts:

1. Russia is not threatened by NATO. Moscow itself claimed it has "no problems Finland being NATO member"

2. If you have a strong military, Russia is deterred

3. Russia never honor treaties, only strength

4. Shared security (NATO) is essential

(2/5)

[Visegrád 24 @visegrad24]

I’ll issue Putin an ultimatum.

End the war in 24 hours or I’ll supply Ukraine with its Taurus Missiles,”

says German Chancellor Candidate Merz.

[HansPeter Michaelsen @hphmic]

From the Danish Newspaper https://t.co/5S2ZWKznqF Drawing: Niels Bo Bojesen

[HansPeter Michaelsen @hphmic]

@MadsKorsager Det skal nok blive godt.... or not? 😒

[HansPeter Michaelsen @hphmic]

Hvor er den samlede plan for dansk forsvar? #dkforsvar https://t.co/RqOecC1yDR

[HansPeter Michaelsen @hphmic]

Hvor er den samlede plan for opbygningen af dansk forsvar? Min kronik i dag #DKforsvar: Analytiker: Christiansborg mangler fortsat at udstikke en klar kurs for Forsvaret - Altinget: Forsvar og Beredskab

[Peter Ernstved Rasmussen @ernstved]

Jeg har lige set @tvmidtvest og er kæmpefan af fællestillidsmand og korporal Jørgen Chr. Pedersen! Hvis resten af personellet i @forsvaretdk talte lige så klart som ham, stod vi ikke i dette morads i 2024! @Forsvarsmin #dkforsvar #dkpol @LRforlag https://t.co/Mgrpy7jgrk