What just happened?
At 2:30 PM ET today, CBS News reported that President Trump was considering "boots on the ground" in Iran.
Then, at 3:43 PM ET, President Trump said "I don't want to do a ceasefire with Iran," with the S&P 500 hitting a new 2026 low.
Exactly 90 minutes later, at 5:13 PM ET, President Trump said the US is "considering winding down" the war with Iran.
Between the 3:43 PM ET and 5:13 PM ET comments, the S&P 500 had already risen nearly +1% on NO news.
By 6:15 PM ET, the S&P 500 rallied +1.8% from its low, adding +$900 BILLION in market cap.
Markets are now closed until Monday.
Here’s an example of @CNBC and @ScottNations not just making fun of my gold prediction, but also taking me to task for recommending gold over stocks. You can clearly see from the prices that while the S&P 500 is up about 250% since this interview, gold is up about 300%.
Bitcoin price targets for 2025:
$0 was closer to being correct than any of these.
JPM: 170,000
VanEck: 180,000
S/Chartered: 250,000
Tom Lee: 250,000
Robert Kiyosaki: 350,000
BlackRock: 700,000
Chamath: 500,000
Saylor: 1,000,000
Pompliano: 500,000
Cathie Wood: 2,000,000
$CVNA $ALLY $OPEN
Market made new highs 8 mo after first ABS write downs in Feb 2007. Obviously nobody had a clue what that meant. We are smarter this time.
„If Carvana were a normal company, the Tricolor Bk would be bullish for sake of market share.
funding outfits upped credit requirements via higher down payments and credit scores. I expect $ALLY and others to begin increasing credit requirements soon not just bc of TriColor but bc of the actual signs of the economy weakening. Smart bulls see this and must have protection
Moody’s and S&P begin re-rating $CVNA ABS with subprime defaults at ATH and 44% of Carvana loans being deep subprime. Best of luck to anyone holding these soon to be 180% yield bonds. External funding for Carvana has reportedly ceased.
I know I may sound stupid at the moment, and many of you won't believe me, but I'm writing this post now so that I can refer back to it when $CVNA goes below $100.
The reason I was incorrect today & how today's downside was a very catchable move.
Definitely frustrating but trust me, I've been here 1,000 times before.