@sebs_tweets It follows that UK businesses and private households in total own 101% of GDP in savings. Whether that‘s good or bad is mostly a matter of distribution, I believe.
Under a gaussian distribution, you need to sample about 30-50 climate catastrophes to reasonably estimate mean and variance of the economic impact. Under fat tails: good luck!
I think part of the disconnect between physical climate science and economists is `mechanism vs statistics.'
Climate scientists model mechanisms.
Economists tend to use statistics of existing observations.
But statistics don't work well for unprecedented events.
Yet curiously, economic output seems sufficient to fund massive wealth increase of the already wealthy, as well as massive rent and real estate price hikes (guess who‘s superlong those).
The welfare state, as we know it today, can no longer be financed with what we are achieving economically. That is why we will have to change it.
Friedrich Merz, CDU Party Congress in Lower Saxony
@nntaleb I gained lots valuable insight looking through an MMT lens, including that it creates its very own kind of shortsighted stupidity. I think when applied rigorously even MMT-based thinking would suggest something might go very wrong with US debt at some point.
@samkhawase Saw a green screen still in use just last week as a Warenwirtschaftssystem in a store. Always triggers a warm childhood feeling, as my father used to stare at these all day for a living.
The cool thing is that while this dialog doesn‘t work, when you‘re trying to log out and into another account it‘s only possible by buying a new computer and burning the old one.
For a good sold in the US for $100, ~$12 go to China (base for tarrif). The rest, $88 for the design + shipping + wholesale + retail + branding, etc. go to US taxpayers!
If demand for it drops by 50%, China loses $6 and US agents more than $44, that is 7x more contraction.
@SaadMaan15@nntaleb Read the actual press release. It‘s a hotline - similar to suicide prevention - that provides guidance when your relatives believe lizard people are controlling their brains with chemtrails.