We’re probably may not getting a 2022-style Bitcoin capitulation volume this cycle.
The market has changed.
Back then, panic was driven by leveraged retail, forced liquidations, exchange failures, and everyone rushing for the exit at the same time.
Today, a large part of BTC sits in ETFs, corporate treasuries, and long-term custody. Retail participation is smaller, leverage is lower, and institutions don’t panic-sell the way retail did.
There is a good chance probability price to go below previous low, I wouldn’t expect the same explosive exchange volume we saw in 2022 to indicate the bottom . A structurally different market doesn’t have to produce the same type of bottom.
This cycle is more likely to end with seller exhaustion, boringness, emotional and timely capitulation than a spectacular volume climax.
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