$CRDO earnings just signaled a major problem for $AAOI?
On AECs: Credo said active electrical cables are now “the preferred solution for rack connectivity and for many multi-rack deployments up to 7 meters.”
1000x greater reliability than commodity laser-based optical modules. At lower power.
That is $AAOI’s core market.
Then the ALC bombshell. Active LED Cables. Optical reach up to 30m using micro-LED instead of traditional lasers. AEC-class reliability with optical range. Management said ALCs could ramp with “very much similar” dynamics to AEC and ZeroFlap.
Meaning fast. And big.
That is the rest of $AAOI’s market.
Credo also said hyperscalers are no longer optimizing for lowest module cost. The priority is now “reliability, power efficiency, signal integrity and telemetry.”
ZeroFlap optics carry 3-digit ASPs vs 2-digit for commodity components. “Meaningful improvement in network reliability, time to cluster stability, and long term uptime.”
Hyperscalers are telling you they will pay more for better.
That is the opposite of what commodity transceiver suppliers need to hear.
$AAOI’s exposure is concentrated in exactly the undifferentiated short-reach laser modules that:
AEC displaces under 7m
ALC targets out to 30m
As buying criteria shift from unit cost to uptime and power, the addressable market for commodity optics at short distances is shrinking.
$CRDO is not just growing. It is eating the market that $AAOI needs to survive.
@crypto_progress @ThenaFi_@Thena_Fi@Dr_Liquid_ Thanks mate. How do you mentally think about the tokens you lock up? Do you treat them as sunk cost (locked very long time and unlikely to to retrieve their value in the future), or still as “money” (there is still chance it retains some values years down the line)?
@crypto_progress @ThenaFi_@Thena_Fi@Dr_Liquid_ I see, What duration of lock would you suggest? Can you sell the nfts or there are not really any liquidity (eg noone buying)