Huripoo (insolvent) 🐂🀄️

capital allocator

[Huripoo (insolvent) 🐂🀄️ @huripoo]

@gumsays Man I just fucking manually arbitraged SOLANA. I fucking love you fr.

[Ansem 🐂🀄️ @blknoiz06]

until death, all defeat is psychological

[Flood @ThinkingUSD]

We made a Kimchi this week

[Huripoo (insolvent) 🐂🀄️ @huripoo]

@0xRiver8 on what

[Flood @ThinkingUSD]

How can you look at financial markets and not think it’s the greatest game of poker ever

[Huripoo (insolvent) 🐂🀄️ @huripoo]

@blknoiz06 delete ts twin

[Huripoo (insolvent) 🐂🀄️ @huripoo]

@citadelwolff If the thesis is j crime and you're early you should NOT avoid that.

[Huripoo (insolvent) 🐂🀄️ @huripoo]

Really sad personal news: I just found out my cabal is not even the main cabal. It’s like 3 cabals down on the MLM scheme. We are getting 4th hand information in our cabal. We barely show up at the bottom of the pyramid.

[Ansem 🐂🀄️ @blknoiz06]

$ANSEM updates:

have added approx. ~$400k in $SOL liquidity to LP past week or so, current priority is deeper liquidity + spot listings + growing holder base, the larger the network of token holders the more value there is for partnerships with other protocols & brands in the future

same plan with staggering $ANSEM airdrops at higher market caps, nearly finished building out tools internally to easily send out airdrops instead of doing everything manually, priority is on adding as much value to the $ANSEM ecosystem as possible so airdrops are intended to be used as efficiently as possible - would much rather airdrop to individuals and protocols that are bringing in net new demand than just to ppl looking to sell on receipt, really like @0xgilbert 's hackathon idea of sponsoring teams to build cool things

starting with new content & socials teams next week, so will accelerate output of media there instead of most of it just coming from this account w/ me bullposting + others doing so on their own - memes/gif folders, photos, video etc all otw

a lot of great inbound from artists and content creators looking to contribute, i sent some funds out to @NeverGoon & @youngjazzeth to do some IRL onboarding, but if you have any interesting ideas there also dm me, planning to start using the https://t.co/4QyW7ZUG2U to so IRL bounties so people across the world can all contribute in different ways

partnered with @ProsperityTime_ on giving away a patek with raffles in $ANSEM, all supply used for tickets will be burned https://t.co/QfOBoe68T5

only ~2.5 weeks in & could not have better timing with crypto majors finally starting to look good

[Huripoo (insolvent) 🐂🀄️ @huripoo]

@blknoiz06 @brian_armstrong @CoinbaseDuck @solana read this shi pls.

[Ansem 🐂🀄️ @blknoiz06]

going to add my two cents here

i believe ppl are generally upset with base because you guys pick & choose what you want to support onchain, because you never know what is going to work and what isnt going to work so it isnt as simple as objectively determining what is positive sum beforehand

for example, base did a big push on creator coins, you even directly bought balaji's coin, but base was not as supportive of memecoins, especially the ones that were doing a lot of volume onchain and could have benefitted from exchange listings earlier, but the creator coin & memecoin charts ended up looking near identical, with most of the creator coin charts not doing nearly as well as a lot of the largest memes on base - i personally think there are some unique reasons for why they didnt work and will work in the future but thats for another post

from my pov there are two different ways to value crypto assets, one is based on the fundamentals of the underlying business, and the other is more intangible value determined by the community of users of the network and driven by attention/momentum/belief etc

hyperliquid is a great business that makes real revenues and is valued in part because of those revenues, but it also trades at a premium because of the collective belief that their users have in the network and their future plans to execute on that vision

bitcoin on the other hand, makes no revenue, but is the largest crypto asset by market cap because it trades purely on the collective belief that it is a better store of value than depreciating fiat currencies and the network grew so large that it became a self-fulfilling prophecy

ethereum is somewhere in between in that it does make real revenues but if you simply valued it purely off of those revenues as you would a tech stock it would trade 95% lower, ethereum also has some intangible value determined by the network of cypherpunks who are majority stakeholders of the network, and they believe that its value as an asset is more than what you would come to conclude on based off of purely p/e ratios

tokenization, stablecoins, perpetuals, and prediction markets have been crypto's greatest success stories to date, tokenization in particular has been so successful because it is one of the only ways to accurately put a dollar value on this intangible value of culture and attention

memecoins are denigrated by a lot of the corporate entities in crypto, but i think what a lot of people fail to realize is that the same intangible value that drove bitcoin and ethereum to be the #1 & #2 largest assets in crypto is the same intangible value that attracts retail to speculating on memecoins, doge sits at $11B and has outlasted a majority of coins over the past decade, its value is purely derived from how internet natives value culture and memetics on the internet

do i think its important to uplift and support protocols in defi/rwas/consumer etc etc? yes, but its just as important to recognize what your users are interested in trading, the best analogy i can make is that if you are a mayor of a city and you have patrons who want to go to nightclubs or go to the casino or go to bars, you would not exclude this activity because you only want people to build businesses like banks, restaurants, corner stores, bookstores etc etc. - for an L1 to thrive it needs to have a diverse ecosystem of all things, and it is clear from the data that onchain trading volumes directly positively impact the native blockchain, whether thats in bringing more attention to the chain, or increasing fee revenues, or increasing revenues of underlying infra providers, or attracting new builders to create new products - best example of this is how bonk revitalized solana at the lows & was a very core reason that trading activity came back onchain + the main reason the first set of solana mobile phones sold out

all L1s & L2s are social networks with their own ecosystems and their own culture, with permissionless networks you cannot control what people build or trade, but you can find ways to provide support across the board and contribute to ideating on how to make trends more sustainable

[Huripoo (insolvent) 🐂🀄️ @huripoo]

@blknoiz06 motion

[Huripoo (insolvent) 🐂🀄️ @huripoo]

@issathecooker Your pfp still so cringe 😭

[Huripoo (insolvent) 🐂🀄️ @huripoo]

@gainzy222 ALTs will never bottom except maybe 5 and that's a good thing.

[Huripoo (insolvent) 🐂🀄️ @huripoo]

@tulipking real

[Huripoo (insolvent) 🐂🀄️ @huripoo]

@blknoiz06 Are u a buyer at 300?

[Cred @CryptoCred]

There have been a few key changes in crypto market structure.

I've written about this topic before but I found myself carrying some stale epistemological baggage about how the market used to be versus what it is at the moment, so thought I'd share.

1. More coins than ever before and the barrier to creating new coins has never been lower.

2. More competition for the hot ball of money (AI, semis, tech, even commodities) and instruments like 0DTE options - all of which are very attractive to normies.

3. Change in participant type and sophistication - ETFs, more tradfi shops, suits etc.

4. Normie flows that used to concentrate around a few CEXes and a limited token set have been fragmented by the infinite listings and existence of the trenches.

There are fewer normie flows, they're spread too thin, and it's difficult to come back to the casino if you get dumped on for holding longer than 15 seconds.

The main attractor to crypto used to be outsized, long-lasting, and well-distributed trend and momentum effects that were easy to access because there weren't that many venues or coins.

That's basically up only/alt season i.e. multi-month periods that were responsible for a disproportionate amount of a crypto trader's lifetime P&L.

A rising tide lifting all boats is an overused but appropriate analogy - it didn't really matter what coins you bought.

If you got the broader market conditions right, you'd enjoy significant uplift and basically get bailed out even if you made bad picks.

In the current paradigm you can't afford to make bad picks.

To be precise: in previous cycles if you got the conditions right but the assets wrong, you'd still make money but underperform. In the current cycle (even from the most recent BTC run) if you got conditions right but the assets wrong, you got shafted.

So asset selection went from a nice-to-have enhancer to one of the main drivers of returns, even if BTC is going up.

That's a pretty significant departure from what we've dealt with in the past

This type of dispersion is a symptom of the market maturing.

I think that's a net good thing and is likely to incentivise more intelligent token design, less ghost chain VC slop etc.

But that's a forward-looking view, and at the moment we're trapped in this awkward transition phase where the old rules don't really apply but we haven't figured out a new framework yet e.g. top N coins by market cap are still mostly shit vs quality.

Maybe I'm wrong and everything changes and we go back to the market-wide altseason paradigm when conditions are right. This could all be cyclical, but I think that's less compelling than before given the dispersion we saw on the way up too vs just to the downside.

I think it's a good time (especially with other markets and asset classes going crazy) to revisit where crypto sits in the speculative stack and how to approach it as the market is changing.

Cheers.

[Cred @CryptoCred]

Crypto's current state is a bit shit

1. Market cap is not an indicator of quality - the top 50 is made up of ghost coins or bloated governance slop that has underperformed and is uninvestable

2. The long tail speculative stuff went from high risk high reward to 'some dude in Miami is going to zero this if you hold it for more than 5.9 seconds'

3. Everything is extremely correlated and you can't meaningfully make bets based on sectors as it all converges into a tightly correlated mush, especially to the downside

4. Broad brush alt season is an artefact of the past that's very hard to replicate given (2) and given that there are simply too many coins and the excess of speculation doesn't really happen on centralised exchanges anymore - it's been siphoned off to bundled shit in max PvP settings

5. Crypto reputationally is no longer the sexy frontier of speculation. Institutional bid is in AI, retail speculative bid is in 0DTE equities, single name stocks etc.

6. Convexity has flattened. Even a lot of the historically safe blue chip stuff (BTC, ETH etc.) has underperformed and the historical anchor of 'buy deep drawdowns because all-time highs are guaranteed and explosive' has disappointed. All the shit we used to put up with because of the accessibly massive trend and momentum effects is now harder to justify because those same effects are getting neutered or siphoned off into other arenas.

The obvious rebuttal is 'cycles' but even this past cycle is a useful counterpoint: it was extremely concentrated versus broad brush wealth effect, plus something very obviously broke after 10/10.

So what does this all mean?

1. In previous cycles, nailing timing was enough and selection was the cherry on top (rising tide lifted all boats). I don't think that holds - both timing and selection matter now and in the future.

2. Participation alone can be an edge if the asset class is early enough and/or mispriced enough. I don't think that holds either, and we might actually have to learn how to trade (fuck).

3. Hopefully I'm an idiot doomposting the bottom

GM

[atlas @creatine_cycle]

he's not gonna fuck you bro

[Pierre @pierre_crypt0]

- Industry tied to Trump and his scams, eventually to come back right at our face
- quantum resistance weakness and potential Btc dormant coins épée Damocles
- Saylor owning 3.5-4.0% of btc supply
- No interest for alts whatsoever for retail after being scammed 2/3 cycles in a row
- X trying to kill CT, which used to be main forum of ideas/community
- Failing to follow spx on V reversal, so far
- Weekly downtrend retest
(…)

Pick your poison :)

[Huripoo (insolvent) 🐂🀄️ @huripoo]

@KhawajaMAsif G