Still keeping a close eye on $ETH vs $BTC.
Pushing into a major downtrend line over and over again.
If it breaks it, ETH could finally have its season again.
Observing closely, ready to pull the trigger.
ISM has just reached the level that triggered the past two Crypto Bull Runs.
2017: ISM crossed 55 (peaking at 60.8); Altcoins exploded +15,000%, led by Ethereum's rally from $8 to $1,400.
2021: ISM hit its highest level since 1983 at 64.7; Crypto market cap crossed $1 Trillion for the first time in history.
2025: ISM averaged 48.9. Altcoins stayed dead despite BTC and ETH hitting all time highs.
2026: ISM finally holds above 54 after 2 years, setting up the liquidity conditions for the next bull cycle.
PMI above 50 means factory output is expanding. Since early 2026, the ISM has consistently held above this line, meaning businesses are profitable and real economic activity is accelerating.
When factory growth holds or climbs toward 60, it triggers an overflow of bank liquidity. Once traditional markets absorb what they can, that excess cash spills straight into high-risk, high-reward assets like crypto.
This is what fueled the 2017 and 2021 parabolic runs.
Comparatively, in 2025, ISM averaged 48.9 below the benchmark. Strong ETF flows pumped BTC and ETH to record highs but because the broader economy stalled, zero liquidity reached altcoins.
A strong ISM report today won't pump altcoins overnight, but if this economic momentum keeps building, it sets the backdrop for another such bull cycle.
THIS IS MASSIVE.
Altcoin MCap monthly MACD has flipped bullish for the first time in 19 months.
Last 2 times this happened, alts pumped non-stop for months.
#Bitcoin Cheat Code
Step 2 -> Bottoming ✔️
The ASO (average sentiment oscillator) is no joke.
I was one of the first, if not the first, to share it on X.
Step 3 -> Takeoff ⏳
Could Bitcoin hit $600,000 by 2029?
Veteran trader @PeterLBrandt shares his Bitcoin outlook, says further interest rate hikes would have little effect on its price, and calls XRP a “fool coin.”
“XRP can be effectively used for transactional purposes, cheaply,” he says.
Watch the new #TRADESECRETS episode with @itsciaranlyons:
00:00 - Intro
01:30 - Do you still expect Bitcoin to bottom in October?
05:30 - What negative catalyst could trigger another Bitcoin drop?
09:10 - Is $100,000 by year-end a realistic scenario for Bitcoin?
11:45 - Could Bitcoin reach $1 million by 2030?
18:00 - What is the better short-term play: AI stocks or Bitcoin?
20:30 - How would further interest rate hikes impact Bitcoin?
23:00 - Will institutional demand change Bitcoin’s boom-and-bust cycle?
25:35 - What is your current view on XRP?
28:30 - Could quantum computing threats ultimately push Bitcoin’s price to zero?
Hey @BitcoinLive1 members, I have posted a piece devoted to #altcoins here https://t.co/B21biKPAq4
It is possible Crypto Cap ex BTC would experience 6X move in next few two or so years
Alts are looking very bullish here.
The bottom formation on OTHERS is incredibly clean.
We have a triple tap, with the 10/10 getting swept.
Then, a strong push up into the first higher high 12 months.
And now, a consolidation around that high.
Very nice price action.
Once this chop is done, I am expecting another very strong push higher.
The best period for alts is not far away.
OTHERS will make new highs over the next 6 months, and it will create conditions we haven't seen for a very long time.
Finally, Bitcoin has been on the move after holding the $60k support zone for almost a year. That’s how long a typical Bitcoin winter lasts, so I’m sensing that a new 4-year cycle bull market is underway. Note that the Z-score of BTC/gold has turned positive after being -100%. In the past that has generally been confirmation of a bottom.
What does all of the above suggest? We are in a new secular regime of a higher cost of capital, which suggests that governments will respond with that oldest trick in the book: financial repression.
I’ve said many times that the CLARITY Act is essential to ensuring America wins the global race for new technology. That’s the reason Congress passed the GENIUS Act: to ensure that stablecoin infrastructure, a revolutionary financial technology, will be built in America.
Ensuring that America’s community bank sector continues to thrive has been a constant focus of mine since day one. And the administration’s dual focus on enabling new digital technology to flourish and appropriately tailoring community bank regulation is key to both sectors driving U.S. economic growth together over the next several decades.
The final draft of the CLARITY Act furthers this mission. It gives the Secretary of the Treasury additional authority to act if the facts around deposit flight change to the detriment of community banks. If stablecoins cause harm to community banks, I will not hesitate to use these tools to ensure they remain fully protected. Community banks are essential to U.S. economic performance and Main Street growth. Economic security is national security, and community banks play a major role in this principle.