Introducing Hyperview Forecasts ๐ฎ
Prediction markets contain massive amounts of information.
But probabilities are fragmented across many outcomes.
Forecast aggregates these probabilities into a single expected outcome.
Main use cases for now include:
๐นPrice markets โ expected price
๐นEvent markets โ expected timeline
๐จ๐ฎ๐ท Iran no longer knows where its own naval mines are in the Strait of Hormuz.
The mines were deployed without precise records. Those whose coordinates existed have drifted with the currents.
Only a narrow corridor remains, accessible as a toll.
Washington says Tehran lacks the technical capabilities to neutralize them.
This will not help reopening the Strait of Hormuz and according to @Polymarket, the Strait of Hormuz traffic will not return to normal by end of April.
Trump wants Iran to stop charging feesย to tankers going through the Strait of Hormuz.
He also said:ย "Iran is doing a very poor job... of allowing oil to pass through... That is not the agreement we have!"
According to @Polymarket, the Strait of Hormuz traffic will not return to normal by end of April, and a permanent peace deal between the US and Iran will probably not happen before June.
โก๏ธ TRUMP: IRAN BETTER NOT BE CHARGING HORMUZ TOLLS
โThere are reports that Iran is charging fees to tankers going through the Strait of Hormuz, they better stop now!โ
"Iran is doing a very poor job... of allowing oil to pass through... That is not the agreement we have!"
๐จThe situation in the Strait of Hormuz remains tense despite the US-Iran ceasefire.
Trump confirmed that US forces would remain positioned in the region until a "real deal" is signed, with a direct threat if it is not respected.
Trump's claims of a "complete opening" of the strait have not materialized: only 3-4 vessels transited yesterday.
@Polymarket anticipates between 20 and 40 ships by end of April, far from the 3,800 vessels per month in normal times.
Iran reportedly told mediators it plans to limit passage to ~12 ships/day and impose tolls, which Washington has publicly rejected. WTI crude reacted by climbing back above $98/barrel.
The Iranian parliament released a statement accusing the US and Israel of already violating 3 of the 10 clauses of the negotiation framework:
1. No ceasefire in Lebanon
2. A drone's intrusion into Iranian airspace
3. US refusal to recognize Iran's right to nuclear enrichment
๐จIs the US-Iran ceasefire already over?
The passage of oil tankers through the Strait of Hormuz has been stopped, per Iran's Fars News Agency.
Iran says it will withdraw from the ceasefire if Israel continues attacks on Lebanon and is preparing potential responses.
On @Polymarket, the "Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April" market saw important volatility in the past 24h, going from a 64% chance of return to normal to only 32%.
BREAKING: The passage of oil tankers through the Strait of Hormuz has been stopped, per Iran's Fars News Agency.
Iran says it will withdraw from the ceasefire if Israel continues attacks on Lebanon and it is preparing potential responses.