$FTAI SHORT SALE REPORT RESPONSE FROM ALL MAJOR INVESTMENT BANKS & RESEARCH FIRMS
Deutsche Bank BUY Reiterate 180 PT 1/16/25
-We think Muddy Waters' claims are largely baseless and unsubstantiated. On Wednesday, short-seller Muddy Waters Research published a report alleging
that FTAI is manipulating its financials to inflate its Aerospace Products (AP) profitability. Based on our review of its report, we think Muddy Waters' claims are
largely baseless and unsubstantiated. Given the vertically integrated business model of FTAI, we acknowledge that the accounting can be more complex than a company operating just one type of business. However, based on our review of MW's claims and FTAI's financials, we don't believe FTAI's accounting is being manipulated. In this report, we go through each claim and provide our view. We also reiterate our Buy rating and $180 per share price target on FTAI.
Barclays BUY Reiterate $180 PT 1/16/25
-Clearing the Mud in Four Charts
Basic financial analysis disguised as an in-depth 60 page slide deck from a short seller had a negative impact on FTAI shares yesterday; our objective analysis debunks the core negative theory in four charts, making for a prime buying opportunity in the company’s shares.
Benchmark BUY Reiterate $300 PT 1/16/25
KEY POINTS:
* FTAI Follows Auditor E&Y Guidance - FTAI use of depreciation methods are fully endorsed and in fact guided by E&Y.
* Whole Engine Sales – Aviation Week and other aerospace aftermarket industry outlets have called for Engine Module sales to be one of the hottest growing trends in 2025.
* Margin Comp Analysis – The comp group used in the report seems to lack an understanding of the difference between airframe and engine margins, as well as OEM vs. aftermarket sales.
* Aerospace / Montreal Margins – As FTAI now owns the Montreal facility it has been investing in capabilities. Further, changing from a JV to sole ownership this year would be expected to have some transition time.
*Finally- Two-Year-Old Quotes - The short report references a quote from a poll at an aircraft leasing event where they couldn’t find anyone who used Module swaps from a third party. This was from two years ago.
Wolfe Research BUY Reiterate $190 1/16/25
-The first thing we noticed is that the report does not appear to consider the impact of the recently announced Strategic Capital Initiative (our initial thoughts) which to us is a key driver to future positive earnings revisions and also goes to addressing two of
our prior concerns (capital intensity of biz and penetration - this was key driver to our upgrade)
Second, the majority of the report should come of no surprise to investors that we interact with. CF is not straight forward like an industrial co) and overall business complexity (marrying of a leasing biz with MRO drives complexity and allows for some level of cost moving). At the same time, the report makes some assumptions we wouldn't agree with based on our knowledge of FTAI and conversations with mgmt.
Compass Point BUY Reiterate $181 1/16/26
-In this report, we provide context and perspective around many of the key arguments that were published in a short report about FTAI Aviation (FTAI) on Wednesday January 15. Our view is that the key arguments are misplaced and/or in many cases do not make sense and that the reaction in FTAI shares is materially overdone, creating an interesting buying opportunity on the overreaction. The short thesis has a few key arguments, most of which revolve around theories about FTAI's depreciation policy and misconceptions about FTAI's Aerospace Products segment, specifically the Maintenance Repair and Exchange (MRE) business.
BTIG Capital BUY Reiterate $190 PT
-On Jan. 15, a short report circulated accusing FTAI Aviation (FTAI, Buy, $190 PT) of financial manipulation and misleading accounting. It suggested that the company is exaggerating the size of its aftermarket business, presenting whole engine sales as individual module sales, over-depreciating leasing assets to
inflate Aerospace Products (AP) margins, and channel stuffing. FTAI shares closed down 24.2% after trading down as much as ~42% intraday. Despite the market reaction, we remain positive on the company's disruptive aftermarket approach and ability to drive further profitability at the Aerospace Products business. After reconnecting with management, we reiterate our Buy rating and leave our estimates unchanged.
Morgan Stanley BUY $168 Reiterate 1/16/25
-We maintain the view that FTAI provides value added MRO work for customers within its Aerospace Products business. We do not view the company’s depreciation standards as egregious relative to peers.
We reiterate our Overweight rating as we continue to see a strong demand backdrop for engine maintenance and see FTAI well positioned to capture this demand. FTAI’s available engine inventory and quick maintenance turn-around times provide a strong value proposition which we see enabling continued customer growth and retention. With a business centered on the existing installed fleet, FTAI avoids the idiosyncratic risks on new aircraft/engine programs. Further, the V2500 MRE program provides incremental growth runway, while incremental PMA approvals continue to provide upside optionality.
RBC Capital Markets BUY Reiterate $160PT
-Yesterday, a short report on FTAI Aviation was released, suggesting largely that the company’s Aerospace Products segment has been over-earning and is more representative of a leasing business rather than a true commercial aftermarket business. We believe the stock’s pullback yesterday (~24% decline) represents an attractive entry point. The report makes several arguments to support its claim that the company is over-earning within the Aerospace Products (AP) segment: (1) FTAI is predominantly selling whole engines rather than individual modules; (2) the CF adjustments for gains suggest that a larger portion of the AP EBITDA is from whole engine sales; and (3) AP EBITDA margins have been inflated by over-depreciation in the leasing segment.
The fourth #Bitcoin halving is almost here.
And a proper thank you is in order to the ones impacted the most.
So, to the miners…thank you for moving money forward.
Given the latest news regarding saber, we've set the default value of our double-count toggle to off
This removes double counting among protocols, previously it was optional on defillama but from today we've changed it
What do Cashio’s @0xghostchain, Sunny Aggregator’s @SuryaKhosla and 9 other anon devs have in common?
They’re all @simplyianm — and they helped him pump TVL on the Saber protocol and Solana last year.
@realdannynelson and @0x_bae investigate: https://t.co/4qrBvIsvDl
Great piece.
1 guy , 11 alt accounts, few composable defi prtocols = Billions of dollars of recounted Solana TVL
Now prepared to run it back on Solana 2.0/Aptos
https://t.co/0J7aMlpFNF
[거버넌스에 대한 오래된 생각 #6]
: 의사결정 피로감(Decision Fatigue)
잦은 선택으로 인한 의사결정 피로는 비합리적인 결과를 초래한다.
온체인 거버넌스 체계에서도 이를 줄이기 위해 범위 조정, 안건에 따른 유연한 투표기한 설정, 그리고 투표과정의 접근성 향상 등을 고려해야 한다.
👇🧵x/14
Most people in Crypto believe Bitcoin is "up only" in the long term.
Nearly everyone thinks we'll see $100k+ in 5 years.
But it's important to question the assumptions we take for granted.
So I tried to explore all the BTC narratives.
.
.
"The Many Faces of BTC"
👇 🧵
1/ Reports on token ownership concentration and DeFi transaction volume often come to incorrect conclusions when centralized exchange hot wallets are involved. Here’s some background on how exchanges typically operate these wallets:
1/ All the #BTC monthly updates are in for June 2022.
In terms of #BTC production by EH/s, $HIVE have taken the🥇crown, closely followed by $CLSK 🥈and $IREN 🥉
See thread 👇
1/8 Some takeaways (TA) and stats regarding hiring in the space.
YTD, @TheBlockRes has received about 1,000 applications, and extended 8 offers (0.8% = 1 in 125).
6 for interns, 2 for full-time. Note, we only hire interns that have the potential for full-time.
Some TAs 👇
Being a VC in Crypto
A short thread looking back on my past 9 months at @TheSpartanGroup 🧵
Hopefully, this is useful to those thinking of joining a crypto fund. (Feel free to reach out if you have any questions!)
1/ How do real-world assets make their way into DeFi?
Let’s take a look at the recent MakerDAO and Huntingdon Valley Bank (HVB) proposal for a $100 million loan participation facility.
🧵👇
1/ Why I'm bullish on blockspace.
People forget what blockchains sell.
Apple sells iPhones.
Facebook sells eyeballs.
Blockchains sell blocks.
A thread:
@AlgodTrading@cz_binance There's a lot of resources out there to learn about these events.
Most of them are a waste of your time.
Here's a great video by @bankless explaining the link between 3AC and your money:
https://t.co/6N7vcGUkeQ https://t.co/6N7vcGUkeQ