Daniil Kuznetsov

[Daniil Kuznetsov @iDanK97]

Requesting $XDAI funds from the #Stakely Faucet on the Gnosis Chain blockchain. Request ID: GQLG8Q1L https://t.co/8yHpD4iAc3

[André Dragosch, PhD⚡ @Andre_Dragosch]

This is probably the most important work I’ve done on #Bitcoin & Macro so far.

It involves a lot of computation and is somewhat complex - because financial markets are complex at the end of the day.

The question investors constantly face is:

“𝗪𝗵𝗮𝘁 𝗶𝘀 𝗽𝗿𝗶𝗰𝗲𝗱 𝗶𝗻 𝗮𝗹𝗿𝗲𝗮𝗱𝘆?”

This question sits at the core of whether markets are efficient or not (spoiler: they’re not - at least not all the time).

You can answer that question in relative terms by using a set of leading macro surveys and distilling what #Bitcoin is pricing in about global growth expectations.

That’s what I did here.

Long story short - the 𝗸𝗲𝘆 𝘁𝗮𝗸𝗲𝗮𝘄𝗮𝘆 is:

#𝗕𝗶𝘁𝗰𝗼𝗶𝗻 𝗶𝘀 𝗰𝘂𝗿𝗿𝗲𝗻𝘁𝗹𝘆 𝗽𝗿𝗶𝗰𝗶𝗻𝗴 𝗶𝗻 𝘁𝗵𝗲 𝗺𝗼𝘀𝘁 𝗯𝗲𝗮𝗿𝗶𝘀𝗵 𝗴𝗹𝗼𝗯𝗮𝗹 𝗴𝗿𝗼𝘄𝘁𝗵 𝗼𝘂𝘁𝗹𝗼𝗼𝗸 𝘀𝗶𝗻𝗰𝗲 𝟮𝟬𝟮𝟮 (𝗙𝗲𝗱 𝘁𝗶𝗴𝗵𝘁𝗲𝗻𝗶𝗻𝗴 / 𝗙𝗧𝗫 𝗯𝗹𝗼𝘄-𝘂𝗽) 𝗮𝗻𝗱 𝟮𝟬𝟮𝟬 (𝗖𝗼𝘃𝗶𝗱)!

#𝗕𝗶𝘁𝗰𝗼𝗶𝗻 𝗶𝘀 𝗲𝘀𝘀𝗲𝗻𝘁𝗶𝗮𝗹𝗹𝘆 𝗽𝗿𝗶𝗰𝗶𝗻𝗴 𝗶𝗻 𝗮 𝗿𝗲𝗰𝗲𝘀𝘀𝗶𝗼𝗻𝗮𝗿𝘆 𝗴𝗿𝗼𝘄𝘁𝗵 𝗲𝗻𝘃𝗶𝗿𝗼𝗻𝗺𝗲𝗻𝘁!

👉In other words, a lot of bad news is already priced in.

Personally, I tend to be a macro contrarian because #Bitcoin can both under- and overshoot the prevailing macro outlook.

Pricing of any asset is essentially macro sentiment.

This is also where most of the alpha is made, in my view.

And I think we’re at one of those moments again.

Even better: I think global growth expectations will accelerate from here, based on the amount of preceding monetary stimulus - which points to a reacceleration well into 2026.

So we’re looking at recession-level growth expectations priced into #Bitcoin despite growth already turning higher!

The last time I saw such an asymmetric risk-reward was during Covid.

Back then, Bitcoin snapped back quickly after the March 2020 shock… and then 6×’d by year-end 2020....

Call it a coiled spring, a ball under water - whatever you like.

I genuinely think we’re staring at a similar macro setup right now.

𝗧𝗟;𝗗𝗥: 𝗬𝗼𝘂’𝗿𝗲 𝗻𝗼𝘁 𝗲𝘃𝗲𝗻 𝗿𝗲𝗺𝗼𝘁𝗲𝗹𝘆 𝗯𝘂𝗹𝗹𝗶𝘀𝗵 𝗲𝗻𝗼𝘂𝗴𝗵.

[Shanaka Anslem Perera ⚡ @shanaka86]

BITCOIN IS NOT A PONZI. THE PONZI IS THE FRAME.

A Ponzi needs three things
• a central operator
• a promise of yield
• hidden losses that arrive too late

Bitcoin has none of these.
No company. No CEO. No guaranteed return. Every rule is visible in the code and in the ledger.

It only looks like a scam if you keep the fiat mental model, where new money is born as somebody’s debt and inflation is an invisible tax on savers.

Shift the frame and a harder question appears:

Which is more fragile over the next 50 years, a money that must expand credit forever, or a neutral network with a fixed terminal supply that anyone on earth can audit.

That is the argument most critics never actually answer.

[Giovanni Incasa @GiovanniIncasa]

Everyone gets the Bitcoin timeline wrong.

And I mean everyone.

You think it's a 6-month thing. Maybe a year if you're being patient.

But that's not how this works.
Bitcoin takes 4-10 years minimum. Probably longer.

I've watched this pattern play out dozens of times now.

Someone discovers Bitcoin. Gets excited. Starts consuming everything. Joins X. Follows the right people. Checks prices every hour.

Month 3 hits and nothing's happening. Month 6 comes and the charts look the same. By month 12 they're gone.

They quit right before the breakthrough.

Because the timeline is the test. And most people fail it.

Here's what kills me about this: the same people who quit Bitcoin after 6 months will spend 4 years getting a degree.

They'll work a job for 10 years waiting for a promotion. They'll save for 20 years for retirement.

But 18 months waiting for Bitcoin? Too long.
The inconsistency is insane.

Bitcoin is a tool. Not your lifejacket.

You're not supposed to stare at charts all day.
You're supposed to live your life and let Bitcoin do its thing in the background.

Find a project and build it. Focus on your family. Get healthy. Read. Create.

Do the work that matters.

Because the people who win aren't the ones who watched the hardest.

They're the ones who understood the timeline and used those years productively.

They didn't mistake patience for passivity.

Your breakthrough isn't coming in 6 months. It's probably not coming in 2 years either.

But it is coming if you can outlast everyone else's impatience.

The question isn't whether Bitcoin will work.

The question is whether you can handle the wait.

Most people can't. That's why most people lose.

Don't be most people.

[VirtualBacon @virtualbacon]

If you're still here and surviving, you will make it in crypto

[The Wolf Of All Streets @scottmelker]

People keep asking me: What was worse - 2022 or whatever we’re in right now?

Here’s my answer: 2022 wasn’t a downturn. It was an industry collapse.

- Terra/LUNA
- 3AC
- Celsius
- Voyager
- BlockFi
- FTX/Alameda
- Genesis
- …plus dozens of desks and DAOs that vanished quietly.

And we forget how many giants everyone thought were going to collapse next: Grayscale, Tether, Coinbase, Binance, Crypto dot com, Gemini, USDC, DCG - all under active fear.

Nearly everyone had some exposure. And everyone thought something they relied on was insolvent.

Now compare that to 2025: a slow bleed. Annoying, draining, uncomfortable - but without a single systemic domino falling. Prices have drifted lower, sentiment has eroded, yet nothing truly catastrophic has taken place.

And during all of this, something unexpected happened:

The fundamentals got stronger.

- Institutions just getting started
- Pro-crypto administration
- ETFs going mainstream
- DATs rolling out
- Corporate treasuries warming up
- Wall Street infrastructure finally being built
- Tokenization + prediction markets gaining real traction
- Early Strategic Bitcoin Reserve conversations

If you told me we’d get all of this during a “bear market,” I’d have laughed.

And here’s my favorite part:

If this dislocation widens - prices drifting lower while the fundamentals get stronger - I’ll only be happier. Watching the portfolio bleed never feels great, but when the underlying foundation is improving, cheaper prices become opportunities, not warnings.

The real story is this:

This cycle created things that can’t be undone.

- BlackRock is here to stay.
- Fidelity isn’t getting undone.
- ETFs aren’t going back in the bottle.
- The SBR conversation isn’t disappearing.
- And the institutional/regulatory foundation built this cycle doesn’t unwind because prices dipped.

If gold can go on a generational run, there’s no reason Bitcoin and this entire industry can’t pick itself back up and turn itself around.

This isn’t 2022. Not even close.

[Raoul Pal @RaoulGMI]

I know many of you are scared, worried you fucked it up and think you'll never make it.

You need to follow the DFTU rules. You need to extend your time horizon and levels of patience. You are clearly not doing that. Every correction is an existential drama to you. That is a sign you are fucking it up.

I've been doing this since I first bought BTC at $200. I've gone through two big drawdowns (-85% and -70%). I've had 95% drawdowns in ETH and SOL. I've sold too early too. It all works out over time if you have the right asset allocation.

Remember - when BTC goes down 30%, quality alts go down 60%+. It's normal. BTC normally has 5+ 35% corrections.

OTHERS in the last two bull markets saw a couple corrections of 80% and still hit new highs in the index. It doesn't mean your alts will however.

You also can't rent someone's conviction on X and hope to win.

You can't trade frequently and hope to win (you'll get nailed by taxes too).

You can't blame someone else for your mistakes. They are yours alone.

You may think the cycle is over. Well if it is, just keep DCA'ing into weakness and your future self with thank you. It takes time to play out and one cycle is not the game.

It's not too late to Unfuck your future.

All the people bitching on the timeline ...

YOU ARE NOT SERIOUS PEOPLE.

Please don't fuck this up. I'm looking directly at you...this is the greatest performing asset class of all time, over time.

The market gives zero fucks about your time horizon.

[Suhail Kakar @SuhailKakar]

https://t.co/Ewl9oWdoNU

[Giovanni Incasa @GiovanniIncasa]

You're optimizing for the wrong metric.

Income feels safe. Assets feel risky.

So you work hard, earn money, pay taxes, and spend what's left.

Meanwhile, the wealthy do the opposite:
Acquire assets. Borrow against them. Never sell.

This is why the gap widens every year.

[Kenny | Accent Investing @AccentInvesting]

If you want to change your attitude toward money, read this:

[James Clear @JamesClear]

At some point, you will have to learn to let go.

There is an endless list of obligations and expectations, desires and ambitions, and worries and fears that will always be ready to insert themselves between you and the feeling of peace.

If you never learn to let them go, there will never be enough.

[Kenny | Accent Investing @AccentInvesting]

Disappear alone for 3 months:

- Get fit
- Read books
- Fix your finances
- Work on yourself
- Upgrade your surroundings
- Take care of your mental health

When you come back, your life will change forever.

[Kenny | Accent Investing @AccentInvesting]

Your salary will keep you afloat for a moment.

Your assets will change your family's life for generations to come.

[Miles Deutscher @milesdeutscher]

Financial freedom is paradoxical.

The things you need to do to achieve freedom often result in being less free..

Scaling a company? Now you're responsible for the livelihoods of dozens of employees.

Make millions? Now you're responsible for protecting it in a world where many people are trying to take advantage of you.

Yes, you undoubtedly solve the basic problems (like bills/rent/food), etc.

But, it comes with a new set of problems, which end up feeling relatively similar (in terms of stress) to the old ones.

But, ultimately, I believe life is more about purpose than it is ultimate "freedom"..

The feeling of waking up with a purpose/mission trumps that of boredom/relaxation.

And purpose isn't just business, purpose can be be family, relationships, up-skilling a hobby.. As long as there's a powerful force that pushes you forward every day.

But as long as something is at stake, you'll never be "free"..

[Kenny | Accent Investing @AccentInvesting]

From 18-35, read this if you want to build wealth in the next 5 years:

[Daniil Kuznetsov @iDanK97]

@UDiDBeta Hello! Order number 11067, I've been waiting since 14:38 yesterday. Register my UDID, please.

[Daniil Kuznetsov @iDanK97]

Участвую в конкурсе от @appleInsider_ru и @wylsacom на новый iPad #KBL22

[Daniil Kuznetsov @iDanK97]

Смотрел презентацию Apple 2013 с Wylsacom! #Wylsa33

[Знаете ли вы, что? @know_facts]

В Сингапуре на один квадратный километр приходится 299 000 человек.

[Wylsacom @wylsacom]

В 2007 году специалисты Nokia, Motorola, RIM (ныне BlackBerry), Palm смеялись над Apple и iPhone.
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