Lehmann

[Random Hero @RandomHeroWX]

WATCH: Incredible video of the tornado in Streator, IL destroying homes. The sound of the storm is insane. #ilwx

🎥: Gabriella Chestnut

[katy cox🌍 @kt4ut]

@JamesMelville Erin Brockovich is taking on the data centres in the US:
https://t.co/rf4f6uc92w

[Rosemary Kelanic @RKelanic]

Must-read piece by @Rory_Johnston on what it will take to reopen the Strait of Hormuz if/when the U.S. and Iran reach a deal (linked below).👇

An immediate stockpile of roughly 160 million barrels will be released to the market as trapped tankers exit, but the real issue is the flow problem: getting the roughly 14 mb/d of shut-in production back online.

From a sheer physical perspective, Kuwait has said that could take 3-4 months for its oilfields to resume prewar production levels, though timelines will vary by country. To enable that, the excess oil in onshore storage will need to be cleared to make way for new production.

But physical constraints aside, the bigger issue is whether and when Persian Gulf countries can be assured that a regular outlet for exporting petroleum exists -- i.e. can they trust that Iran will actually *keep* the Strait of Hormuz open, and will it permit a resumption to prewar levels of traffic?

When cast that way, the reasons for the strong resistance of Persian Gulf governments to "allow" Iran any post-war control over Hormuz becomes obvious: Iran could potentially use its leverage over Hormuz to essentially *decide for them* what their new levels of ongoing oil production will be.

Whether, and under what conditions, Iran would try to impose de facto production limits on Gulf states by squeezing Hormuz is unclear.

But my take is that the issue is best left for regional actors to work out themselves. After all, the U.S. has armed and equipped states like the UAE and Saudi Arabia with U.S. materiel for years. Local actors can retaliate impose costs on Iran, too, should Tehran get cute with the Strait of Hormuz. They have means to deter Iran from interference with the strait.

In the most recent war, Gulf countries stayed largely on the sidelines in hopes of minimizing Iranian retaliation (with the UAE a glaring exception, as it conducted significant airstrikes on Iran).

But if the U.S. were not so deeply enmeshed, trying to micromanage everything in the region, 1.) this war would never have happened and Iran would not have discovered the extent of its geographic leverage over Hormuz, and 2.) regional actors would balance each other and work out their political problems without the U.S. -- perhaps more peacefully. The resulting political arrangements would be more durable in the absence of U.S. meddling because they'd more accurately reflect the regional balance of power.

International relations is all about bargaining in the shadow of relative power. With the U.S. constantly and ham-handedly putting its thumbs on the scale, we interrupt and warp local bargaining processes in ways we barely understand -- and keep us trapped in the region.

Trump never should have launched this disastrous war. But he did, and the Persian Gulf won't ever be the same. An irresponsible U.S. regime change war is what provoked Iran into closing the Strait of Hormuz and taking the global economy hostage.

Simply put, we did this to ourselves. Meddling has consequences. And there's no engineered solution that can be attained through U.S. military force that approaches anything like reasonable cost.

The sane response to failure is to change strategies. Trump should drop his blockade in exchange for Iran reopening the Strait of Hormuz. Other issues can be handled later. The longer Trump waits, the worse his leverage gets, as the delayed costs of the Hormuz closure finally hit this summer.

And then the U.S. needs to reconsider its entire approach to the Middle East.

All those wrecked U.S. military bases? We should NOT rebuild them -- and not just because our air defenses can't adequately protect them from Iranian missiles and drones.

We need to take this opportunity to drastically scale back U.S. commitments to the region -- not just physical U.S. posture and presence, but the *underlying political commitments* to regional actors, whether it's Israel or Saudi Arabia.

Regional actors can balance Iran. They have more skin in the game and a far better understanding of realities on the ground than Washington ever could.

Rarely do historical events so upend political inertia as the Iran War has. Let's hope that the U.S. can take advantage of this opportunity to redefine its role and trim legacy commitments that no longer serve U.S. interests -- if they ever truly did.

[Steve Hanke @steve_hanke]

Commodity market guru Jeff Currie on the coming, inevitable oil price spike:

“Demand is up here; supply is down here. We’re filling that gap with inventory. When you eventually run out of inventory, demand has to come down to supply… You can’t print molecules.”

[First Squawk @FirstSquawk]

STUDENT DEBT CONTINUES TO DELAY MAJOR PURCHASES FOR GEN Z

• 31% Of Gen Z Borrowers Say Student Loans Have Prevented Them From Buying A Car
• 33% Say Student Debt Has Delayed Or Blocked Home Ownership
• Rising Debt Burdens Continue To Weigh On Consumer Spending And Household Formation, According To Axios

[Darth Powell @VladTheInflator]

@EconguyRosie Rosie this guy nails it....

[Mario Nawfal @MarioNawfal]

🇺🇸 6 million American kids are getting a $1,000 stock portfolio next month whether their parents know about it or not.

Trump Accounts launch on July 4th. IRA-style savings accounts for every American under 18, with the government seeding $1,000 for kids born during Trump's second term.

Parents can add up to $5,000 a year tax-free. Michael Dell is throwing in $250 per account for kids who missed the cutoff. Nicki Minaj is contributing up to $300,000 for her fans' kids.

Leave it alone for 18 years and that $1,000 becomes $10,000-$20,000 minimum.

The catch: you have to sign up yourself. Nobody's doing it for you.

TrumpAccounts .gov. Form 4547. Go.

Source: NY Post

[Lehmann @iLehmann]

@GuntherEagleman

[Lehmann @iLehmann]

@simonkp @MarioNawfal Especially when rain must be keeping him off the golf course this weekend. Hopefully mar-a-lago still gets its cut.

[The Dr. Margaret Show @DrMargaretShow]

🚨🔥 LEGENDARY MELTDOWN — Congressman Mike Bost RIPS UP a last-minute pension reform bill in 2012!

Why so mad? Democrats dropped a massive, revised 200-page bill at the 11th hour — forcing reps to vote with almost no time to read it. Bost exploded against the Speaker’s iron grip, rushed “gotcha” tactics, and rules that silenced real debate for the people.

FULL TRANSCRIPT:

“These damn bills that come out here all the damn time come out here at the last second and I’ve got to try to figure it out. I’ll vote for my people. You should be ashamed of yourselves. I’m sick of it every year. We give power to one man. Now we pass rules that stop each one of us. Enough! I feel like somebody trying to be released from Egypt! Let my people go! My God, they sent me here to vote for them! They sent me here to argue for them! But I’m trapped with my rules forced down our throats. Folks, we live in a democracy — not here. The speaker has so much power and control…”
💥📜🗞️

Who he is: Mike Bost (R-IL) — fiery ex-Marine, former Illinois State Rep turned fighter for Southern Illinois.

What he’s now doing:
Serving as U.S. Congressman (IL-12) since 2015 — still battling for veterans, farmers, and against DC swamp games.

@LeaderJohnThune… you listening? 🇺🇸🙌 #LetMyPeopleGo #FixCongress #NoMoreLastMinuteBills

[60 Minutes @60Minutes]

Lyme disease has afflicted 15% of residents in Nantucket, Massachusetts. The tick-borne illness is found primarily in the Northeast, but it’s spreading across the U.S. https://t.co/LdPVyHU6hu

[Lehmann @iLehmann]

@steve_hanke It doesn't keep him up at night. All he cares about is Golf.

[Eric Daugherty @EricLDaugh]

🚨 JUST IN: Rep. Tim Burchett has just filed legislation bringing back HANGINGS for the death penalty in the United States

LFG! Make it happen!

The DROP Act would ensure inmates on death row could be hanged for their crimes 🔥

Burchett has also called for hangings for PREDATORS of children: "They sell kids to get R*PED...people say, 'You don't want to hang these people!' The HELL I don't! Bring them out to the farm, and WE'LL take care of them. I am NOT kidding you!"

h/t @GuntherEagleman

[B/R Open Ice @BR_OpenIce]

We have NO GOAL on this play as the whistle was blown before the goal ❌❌❌

[Aaron Rupar @atrupar]

Trump sent in a pre-recorded video for the Rededicate 250 blasphemy fest instead of speaking in person, and he still could barely read it cogently

(also, note him covering up the disfigured back of his right hand)

[NHL @NHL]

The @BuffaloSabres watch party is LOVING this second period! 🙌 #StanleyCup

🇺🇸: ABC
🇨🇦: @Sportsnet & @TVASports

[FreightWaves @FreightWaves]

Today, the Supreme Court told every freight broker in America that they can be sued for negligent carrier selection. Montgomery v. Caribe Transport II was unanimous. Nine to zero. The FAAAA preemption shield that the brokerage industry had relied on for decades is gone.

So…what’s next? Well, insurance of course. Anytime liability and exposure rear their heads, insurance becomes a necessity to protect the rest of society.

https://t.co/4cMJvn43LI

[Lehmann @iLehmann]

@Hamoncann @KobeissiLetter So all those savings could be spent at maralago for his golf habit.

[The Kobeissi Letter @KobeissiLetter]

BREAKING: US Federal government employment fell by -9,000 jobs in April, to 2.66 million, the lowest since May 1996.

This marks the 14th monthly decline over the last 15 months.

Since January 2025, the federal government has cut -12% of its headcount, or -345,000 jobs.

Federal jobs now account for 1.68% of total employment, the lowest percentage since at least the 1930s.

Meanwhile, the federal job openings rate fell -0.5 percentage points in March, to 2.7%, the 2nd-lowest since the 2020 pandemic low.

As a result, there were only 75,000 available vacancies in the sector, the 2nd-lowest since May 2020.

The federal workforce is contracting.

[Charlie Bilello @charliebilello]

Price Increases over last 5 years...
New Cars: +20%
Groceries: +26%
Family Health Insurance: +27%
Shelter: +29%
Restaurants: +30%
Home Prices: +37%
Electricity: +39%
Dozen Eggs: +39%
Gas Utilities: +42%
Gasoline: +42%
Transportation: +43%
Auto Insurance: +58%
Fuel Oil: +63%
Ground Beef: +68%
Coffee: +105%