iPredicta

Prediction markets discovery and intelligence. Compare odds across Polymarket, Kalshi, and the regulated venues. One platform. Every market. Smarter decisions.

[iPredicta @iPredicta_co]

Polymarket's Bitcoin 2026 market swung from 10% to 81% in a session.

The catch: only one rung of a laddered basket actually resolves, and which rung changes the story entirely.

Our read on what the move means, and what it does not.

#Bitcoin

https://t.co/Rt7G1RRppq

[iPredicta @iPredicta_co]

Smarkets vs Polymarket, for UK traders.

One's a 2% FCA-licensed exchange you can actually use. The other geo-blocks the UK entirely.

Same outcomes, different worlds. We broke down fees, liquidity and which makes sense.

https://t.co/OwmAwwQMR9

#PredictionMarkets #UKBetting

[iPredicta @iPredicta_co]

The wallchart's on the kitchen door, six days out.

The market's already filled it in: Spain and France level at the top, England a clear third. A 16% favourite means an 84% chance they don't win.

https://t.co/RlwK3dJMbr
#WorldCup #PredictionMarkets

[iPredicta @iPredicta_co]

The Home Office admitted to MPs it's lost track of how many people are in the UK illegally. They don't know the number.

That doesn't move polls. It moves the snap-election market, a cent at a time.

https://t.co/CxbitgmBQO

#UKPolitics

[iPredicta @iPredicta_co]

Bitcoin just had its worst week since the FTX collapse.

The trigger wasn't a crash.

It was Strategy quietly breaking its "never sell" pledge, and the markets repricing the tail in real time.

What the order book is saying: https://t.co/R2uOM1ZPQc
#Bitcoin #PredictionMarkets

[iPredicta @iPredicta_co]

FIFA banned refillable water bottles from World Cup stadiums. Seven days before kickoff. In a heatwave.

Fans are furious. The winner market hasn't moved a single point.

Why off-pitch noise doesn't touch the order book:
https://t.co/q9J7mPYhnK

[iPredicta @iPredicta_co]

Three friends left a river town in Argentina and pedalled 10,500 miles to Kansas City to watch their team's World Cup opener.

The market gives Argentina a 9% chance of winning it.

Both numbers are true. They're just measuring different things.

https://t.co/VwepW9FXYC

[iPredicta @iPredicta_co]

Marcelo Bielsa has watched more football than almost anyone alive. He's taking Uruguay to the World Cup.

Polymarket has them nowhere near the top eight.

The market prices the squad. It doesn't price the manager. That's the gap.

https://t.co/3MwG7FmXec

[iPredicta @iPredicta_co]

The BBC just promised its biggest-ever World Cup coverage. Every England game, all 104 matches, the lot.

What they won't tell you: the market already has a favourite. It's France, with Spain a point behind.

England are third.

https://t.co/DLwOqI9Wsa

[iPredicta @iPredicta_co]

The OECD's worst-case Iran scenario isn't a tail risk. It's what the prediction market is already pricing.

Low odds the regime falls = high odds of the grinding war that squeezes rural Britain's diesel supply into 2027.

The trade nobody's framing right:
https://t.co/w64xciDOqW

[iPredicta @iPredicta_co]

A market pricing a likely PM exit isn't the story. It's the symptom.

What the Starmer exit market gets right, and what Polly Curtis's "doom loop" sees that it can't.

https://t.co/9xh9u6kb34

[iPredicta @iPredicta_co]

A $14bn Taiwan arms package sits in limbo. Washington blames the Iran war.

Defence analysts aren't buying it. The package wouldn't deliver before 2029 anyway.

What @Polymarket's China-Taiwan contract is pricing.

https://t.co/LNvbL40Ihb

#PredictionMarkets

[iPredicta @iPredicta_co]

Indonesia's eternity glaciers were projected to vanish by 2026.

They've outlasted their obituary by twelve months. Traders aren't celebrating, they're recalibrating the next deadline.

What @Polymarket's climate contracts are pricing.

https://t.co/xeLdYP687q

#PredictionMarkets

[iPredicta @iPredicta_co]

Texas Democrats see Ken Paxton's primary win as their opening.

The Senate control market on @Polymarket has barely moved.

Three reasons traders aren't convinced, and the one signal that would shift the price.

https://t.co/ShWMFBHYWa

#PredictionMarkets #Senate2026

[iPredicta @iPredicta_co]

@Bigbbybenny Exactly the read. Promo spend is the quiet number nobody wants to print. DraftKings burned over $1B on CAC in 2024. If Polymarket and Kalshi keep matching user growth at a fraction of that, the margin story gets uglier fast. Smart money knows what the sell-side won't print.

[iPredicta @iPredicta_co]

Hedge funds have $2.3B of paper profits shorting Flutter, DraftKings and Entain in 2026.

The interesting part isn't the trade. It's that Two Sigma and DE Shaw aren't covering despite Barclays calling a relief rally.

https://t.co/b9jdcESBIE

#predictionmarkets #shortselling

[iPredicta @iPredicta_co]

Bookmaker odds drift slowly on rumour.

Prediction market lines snap on confirmation.

Colombia just confirmed James and Luis Díaz are going to the World Cup. Watch what @Polymarket does next.

https://t.co/kfJdlQUTZc

#predictionmarkets #WorldCup2026

[iPredicta @iPredicta_co]

Grogu opens to $100m. Avatar: Fire and Ash is still the 2026 box office favourite on @Polymarket.

But the gap just narrowed. The interesting trades aren't on the leader. They're on the second-place contracts.

https://t.co/jX4wFNHwxB

#boxoffice #predictionmarkets

[iPredicta @iPredicta_co]

Brent above $100. Hormuz closed. @KalshiHQ recession contracts in the uncomfortable middle.

The tell isn't the level. It's the rate of change. 25 to 30 cents over a month is news. The same move in 48 hours is a regime repricing.

https://t.co/kUZau2MdJg

#predictionmarkets

[iPredicta @iPredicta_co]

Rubio says good news is hours away.

Trump says the deal is largely negotiated.

Polymarket says today is a coin flip. 51% on the announcement landing today. 89% by June 7.

The market is reading the rule book, not the headlines.

https://t.co/jtv9tSsYul

#predictionmarkets