Cade

Founder @ liaison

[Cade @iamcadec]

@geoffreywoo

[Cade @iamcadec]

This is good

[patagucci perf papi @kenwheeler]

"yeah i havent written in prompt in like 4 months, i dont even have a computer anymore, i dont even have a job, i just have loops you know what i'm saying, were just building, no you cant see it, not a big deal its just loops, its cool, it just the computer at this point really"

[Cade @iamcadec]

Im betting there is a bigger story here. Remember when notion partnered w anthropic for managed agents? Remember how anthropic is seemingly trying to compete in every space? I bet there is a threat here from anthropic for notion and this is an excuse

[Notion Status @NotionStatus]

Anthropic's Opus 4.7 and 4.8 models are experiencing degraded performance, which is causing a higher rate of failures for users selecting these models in Notion AI.

To mitigate impact, all Anthropic models have been disabled in the model picker and requests have been rerouted to alternative providers. Most users should now be able to continue using Notion AI with minimal disruption, though Anthropic-specific features remain unavailable.

Please refer to https://t.co/2jxfCbG6UZ for the details.

[Cade @iamcadec]

what happens when tokens aren't subsidized? best time to build is now, and ironically companies start looking at profitability once they are public.

[Cade @iamcadec]

I’ve been saying this for some time. The paradigm needs to shift.

It is not unlikely that we see +10% gdp, and a very very low unemployment rate. Sometimes the most ironic is , well the most probable. In a world of AI, anyone can build anything, where just thinking becomes action. Idk what the future will look like but it sure won’t be UBI and infinite job loss.

Think past the FUD the future is bright

[Cathie Wood @CathieDWood]

The jobs report was a barnburner. Nonfarm payrolls increased by 172,000 versus expectations for 88,000, while prior months were revised higher by 93,000. Wage growth came in at roughly 0.3%.

Yet the market sold off.

In our view, the market is misreading the signal. It is assuming that stronger than expected employment and growth will cause a an acceleration in inflation. History would suggest otherwise. 

Productivity growth is running near 3%, while unit labor costs are hovering around 0.5%. Those are not the hallmarks of an inflationary boom. They are the hallmarks of healthy, productivity-driven growth that will lower inflation.

Meanwhile, the yield curve continues to flatten despite a roughly 55% increase in oil prices year-over-year based on a three month moving average. In past cycles, an energy shock of this magnitude steepened the yield curve when the Federal Reserve was accommodating it. Instead, the bond market appears to be discounting something much more powerful: the deflationary impact of technological innovation, particularly artificial intelligence, which is beginning to increase productivity across broad swaths of the economy.

If tensions with Iran ease and oil prices retreat, we believe inflation could move into negative territory before year-end.

In our view, the Fed made a historic policy error when it raised rates aggressively into what was largely a supply-driven inflation shock in 2022. We do not believe the next generation of monetary policymakers will be eager to repeat that mistake.

Notably, gold peaked on the day Kevin Warsh was appointed. The inflation trade may already be behind us.

If our research is correct, the next phase of this cycle could be characterized by accelerating growth, declining inflation, falling interest rates, and a strengthening U.S. dollar. That combination would create a remarkably supportive backdrop for innovation-led equities and the technologies driving the next productivity boom.

I discuss this framework in greater detail in this month’s episode of In The Know.

[Cade @iamcadec]

@Jason

[Cade @iamcadec]

@Jason Lower

[Cade @iamcadec]

@TheChiefNerd When ai runs gdp to 10% the will have

[Cade @iamcadec]

Anthropic / OpenAI told two stories;

1. to their investors, "we will replace all knowledge work - reason being is to raise capital"
2. public market liquidity, "wait, no we actually dont think we are going to replace all knowledge work"

[Cade @iamcadec]

Jevons Paradox: as technological progress increases the efficiency with which a resource is used, the total consumption of that resource often increases rather than decreases.

[Cade @iamcadec]

ai will bring GDP over 10%, and also decrease unemployment. also UBI will never happen in the way you think it will.

[Cade @iamcadec]

@MartinShkreli

[Cade @iamcadec]

@sweatystartup Nick, this might be akin to someone complaining about oil at this point when the end product of oil appears in every aspect of their life. ai runs the algorithm you get paid on, it drives your car, and will touch almost every aspect of your life in one way or another.

[Cade @iamcadec]

great advice for any new founders. worst thing you can do is bring on a team when you need to grind, and they are not willing. early on, it is more important than ever that everyone eats, sleeps, and breaths the startup at the execution level.

[Harry Stebbings @HarryStebbings]

"We have everyone do work trials so people know what they’re getting into on both sides.

We like candidates to do real work for 1 or several days, often over a weekend.

When they see the office full on a weekend, they quickly learn that we’re not joking around." @nico_laqua

What are your single biggest lessons on how to test the quality of candidates pre-hiring @awxjack @ryanjdaniels @ivanburazin @rronak_

[Cade @iamcadec]

@Breaking911 get the drugs off the street and focus on crime. you cant even drive in NY. perception of good, not the reality

[Cade @iamcadec]

@Austen And the client was anthropic itself. Bom bom bom…

[Cade @iamcadec]

@garrytan Like many VCs….? Looks like he dumped the rest of his dry power into the latest 985bln valuation and that’s what he is telling his LPs until IPO. What a stupid statement

[Cade @iamcadec]

💯

[Cade @iamcadec]

Would you rather back a cracked founder at 20 yo, vs 40 yo ? If so, why? Seems like the risk is far greater with a Harvard dropout with no real world experience?

[Mario Zechner @badlogicgames]

if we see this, we know

[Cade @iamcadec]

@BlackLabelAdvsr Land is scarce in TX