I’ve been “on Wall Street” for almost 2 decades . I started my career in alternatives selling hedge funds and private equity to financial advisors. Imagine a 21 year old telling 65 year old guys with 100m-2b in AUM why they need to diversify their books into alts.
I worked on a fixed income trading floor, I’ve worked in private equity and now I make markets for an investment bank in private pre IPO securities.
I know as much anyone about the industry and always put forth my best effort and honesty into what I say and do. I can sell you on any idea I have, bullish or bearish because I’ve done the work and truly believe in what I’m selling.
I’m one of those people who always sound like I know what I’m talking about even when I don’t.
This is going to sound very “out there”, but I don’t think anyone and I mean anyone, is considering that the S&P 500 will drop 80% from the highs.
Why I think it’s possible? Take a look around. Everything about equity returns that Wall Street sells you is post WWII data.
Pre WWII things were much different. Why? Because the world was filled with competition and war, not cooperation and diplomatic solutions.
The world today is heading backwards and everything you think you know about markets should be tossed out the window.
The U.S govt can’t even select a speaker of the house, agree on funding and function normally as an entity.
Further, our adversaries see this as a time of weakness to strike. It’s why Russia chose last year to go into Ukraine while inflation was hot.(and the U.S would have to pay a heavy price to defend Ukraine).
It’s why further wars are being summoned in the Middle East. The world as we have known it for our entire lives is not the world we’re moving towards. Could change, but currently going the wrong way.
The U.S imported deflation from China for decades, now it’s decoupling and importing inflation from on-shoring.
This was a major contribution to the record margins companies were able to generate. Look at Tesla! Wasn’t profitable before the Shanghai factory.
I write this all now because I feel the world is at a crossroads. It doesn’t have to end badly, but geopolitically a large swath of the world is moving away from a U.S centric lead world.
That is more uncertainty for U.S corporates/corporate earnings than at any time since pre WWII and it might just be the thing that ultimately crashes it all. /End
@lesliegudel Way to go Bryce! I see so much disrespect from kids anymore. I must be getting old idk, but if my sons ever acted like the kids I see now there definitely would have been consequences.
Update: The City of Springfield, Ohio has released surveillance footage of the elementary school incident from Feb. 10 where white students were held hostage & assaulted on the playground by black students who wanted to force them to pledge allegiance to #BLM.
If it feels off, it is. If you feel out of place, you are. If it feels wrong, don't do it. If your body says no to someone, a situation, or a place, leave immediately. Your body is the first to know. Your mind is the last to accept. Trust your gut feeling and what you deeply feel
A lot of you don't understand there are millions of 18-30 year old men who have grown up with no (or weak) fathers, in a society that constantly tells them their gender is the source of all problems, women don't need them, their masculinity is 'toxic', and everything is hopeless.
Amazon lays off 10,000, Petroleum Reserve empty, heating fuel shortage in Northeast, SBF roams free, Paul Pelosi story disappears, more billions to Ukraine, Biden weaponizing IRS & ATF, title 42 expiring, people burned alive in China.
And our media is worried about Elon Musk.