RShar

Watching where capital flows, before headlines go.

[RShar @iamrshar]

@ausstockchick Shorties going to be squeezed if so

[RShar @iamrshar]

$CSL technical exhaustion (RSI/Relative Strength $NDQ) meeting a wall of peak market pessimism is the classic signature of an imminent regime shift.

[RShar @iamrshar]

@ryu_tay If dollar cost averaging in your back pocket, then yes, it does look like bottom.

[RShar @iamrshar]

@HostileCharts Same setup forming again

[RShar @iamrshar]

ASX:WTC (Wisetech)
Price & PE Ratio : Back to pre-covid level

[RShar @iamrshar]

Platinum vs Silver

Gain/Loss% are approximate. But the idea is where to park the capital.

[RShar @iamrshar]

Such monster green volume candle doesn’t come from retail.

[RShar @iamrshar]

Why is nobody talking about this? #Corn

[RShar @iamrshar]

@ValueSeeker_ How come your chart is different than mine?

[RShar @iamrshar]

It’s NOT just “war ends = everything bullish”

The real driver is:

👉 What happens to oil

Because:

Oil spike = inflation shock
Oil drop = disinflation + liquidity tailwind

If oil stays high even after war (supply damage, sanctions, etc.):

Rotation may NOT fully reverse

[RShar @iamrshar]

🧵1/7
If the Iran war stops (ceasefire / de-escalation)

Reverse rotation will take place.

Energy → Weakens
Oil risk premium disappears
Supply fears ease (Hormuz risk fades)
Oil prices likely fall or stabilise

Energy stocks (oil producers, LNG) underperform / pull back

[RShar @iamrshar]

🧵7/7
Big Picture Rotation Map

During war:

Energy → Defense → Commodities → Safe havens

After war ends:

Tech → Growth → Consumer → Cyclicals

[RShar @iamrshar]

🧵6/7
Safe havens → Sell-off

During war:

Gold ↑
USD ↑
Bonds ↑ (sometimes)

After:

Risk-on returns

➡️ Money flows back into equities

[RShar @iamrshar]

🧵5/7
Defense → Loses momentum

During war:

Defense spending expectations ↑

After:

Momentum fades (not collapse, just rotation out)

[RShar @iamrshar]

🧵4/7
Cyclicals → Rebound

War hurts demand-sensitive sectors due to cost pressure

When it ends:

Airlines ✈️ rebound (fuel ↓)
Industrials ↑
Consumer discretionary ↑

[RShar @iamrshar]

🧵3/7
Growth / Tech → Outperformance

Lower yields = higher valuations

➡️ Expect rotation into:

Tech
AI
High-growth names

This is usually the strongest move post-conflict

[RShar @iamrshar]

🧵2/7
Inflation trade → Unwinds

War → higher oil → higher inflation
End of war → disinflation impulse
Inflation expectations drop

Bond yields fall (or stop rising)
Rate cuts become more likely again

This is the big trigger for rotation

[RShar @iamrshar]

@ryu_tay When Qatar (which supplies 20% of global LNG) goes offline, the threat isn't to your oil tank; it’s to the entire power grid. Which is Coal and Gas, both are up around 3.5%

[RShar @iamrshar]

@ryu_tay Buy Blue Chip they said, now I'm feeling blue 😰

[RShar @iamrshar]

@ryu_tay Sure it is, but at what cost?