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I backtested every Sunday pump above 2% on Bitcoin since 2021 and 90% of the time, it is a trap.
Yesterday Bitcoin pumped 2.6% on a ceasefire headline but if you look at the last 6 years of data then there is a 90% chance of this move getting erased with a red weekly close.
Here is what actually happens after Sunday pumps above 2%.
If Monday closes red after the pump, the week closes red 85% of the time and if Monday drops more than 2%, it gets worse with 90% chances that the weekly candle will be red. In the last 6 months specifically, Sunday pumps above 2% have led to red weekly closes more than 80% of the time regardless of what Monday does.
$67,300 to $69,034, that was Sunday's move. Now here is what Monday needs to do to confirm or kill it:
Monday closes below $69,034 (the open): Base pattern triggers with 85% chance the week closes red.
Monday closes below $67,653 (2% below the open): Strongest version triggers with 90% chance of a red week. This is the level where you know we are breaking below $65K.
Monday closes more than 2.5% above Sunday's high ($71,870): The pump is real and the week closes green 80% of the time. This is the only bullish scenario and anything less than this should not be trusted.
One of these three levels will hit by midnight UTC tonight.
Bookmark this and check it every Monday morning. If Sunday was green by more than 2%, Monday's close will tell you whether the week closes red or green.
A Turkish soldier offers chocolate to a Syrian child, but one of the bars slips to the ground.
The child picks it up and, believing it should be returned, tries to hand it back to the soldier.
$MON
price swept all the lows last night, was asleep when it happened.
overall yesterday was ok for this coin, it looks as bad as it had done before the dump which is good :)
opened position with 33% size, will look to add over 0.0192
https://t.co/e7lnjQrnLM
$HYPE.
be mindful of the bull posting on X please.
this is where the price is on the daily. not saying long or short. i wouldnt buy here
acceptance above the daily resistance 36-37, yea maybe
$BTC
on the daily, price has dumped back into the $53k to $73k range. Currently around the mid range of that.
would just have to see now what price does over the coming days.
plenty of scalp oppurtunities probably. smaller size and swift.
$MON
price swept all the lows last night, was asleep when it happened.
overall yesterday was ok for this coin, it looks as bad as it had done before the dump which is good :)
opened position with 33% size, will look to add over 0.0192
https://t.co/e7lnjQrnLM
$MON
as the market explores the possibility of btc bottoming out for a relief bounce, we look to explore potential oppurtunities.
i like the MON chart here. and attached the tentative plan/area i will look to enter.
the entry is tentative and will depend on PA if we get there.
the SL will be absolute. its basically a 4hr ATR below the potential low/high low.
@RunnerXBT brother. you enter a trade at 7pm and close it out by 11 30pm incase the market takes it back and you want to shit on Vitalik for selling 6% of his stack. better ways to tilt in life.
$MON
as the market explores the possibility of btc bottoming out for a relief bounce, we look to explore potential oppurtunities.
i like the MON chart here. and attached the tentative plan/area i will look to enter.
the entry is tentative and will depend on PA if we get there.
the SL will be absolute. its basically a 4hr ATR below the potential low/high low.