Markets are in such a weird space currently right now.
Every single day there are two types of headlines: one that implies the war will end soon and oil prices should go down and then one that implies the exact opposite.
CPI was okay this week but if oil, which is now at $96, continues to stay here…inflation just isn’t going to get better.
Which means we aren’t going to easily get rate cuts. We now only have 1 cut projected for 2026.
The S&P is officially down 3% YTD and this week has lost that crucial $6700 level.
Individual sectors like Fintech and SaaS have just been completely left as narratives have ruined those names, whether it’s about AI or private credit.
However, individual growth stocks have meaningfully corrected from the highs. Some down 50%. Mag 7 multiples ex Tesla/Apple continue to be reasonable and every time they breakout…some headline brings them down, which is what we saw with $META.
I think this year so far has been characterized in 3 ways:
1. Finding a deeply important sector/theme and going heavy into that like drones/space/energy/etc, but timing is important as even those sectors have seen big pullbacks.
2. Accepting this year is consolidation (which is better than bearish) and just buying your favorite names at discounts every week to add to the portfolio.
3. Yielding volatility by running covered calls and playing ranges within stocks as many continue to be within a range which helps when running calls, something that has been one of my core strategies this year and is also what I thought might happen as we are in year 4 of the bull market and these names might just need to consolidate.
Going net short has not really worked unless you picked the right stocks, S&P down 3% isn’t really the best environment for shorting since everyone is so positioned for the crash that the premiums on puts/borrowing fees aren’t as attractive when everyone expects a major move down.
A hard market to navigate but still opportunity exists within it…
$SOFI is currently one of the most attractive buys in the entire market.
This is literally a booklike set-up.
-Bounce off the golden Fib at $17
-CEO just bought $1m in shares
-RSI bullish divergence
It's way too obvious.
The stock has insane upside potential while also being a super reliable company.
This is a rare combination.
$NVDA
Nvidia trades at 24 times forward earnings.
Its 5-year average is 38 times.
Earnings this week will come down to a few simple questions around inference, how large physical AI (robots) can become, Nvidia’s moat against custom ASICs, and if CapEx will continue to grow over the coming years.
I continue to think the street is underestimating growth forecasts. Nvidia’s CFO already said their “$500B in 5 quarters” projection had increased in January. China revenue is still a tailwind. $TSM earnings capex increase showed how much demand continues to come in.
If supplychain issues are the biggest headwinds to revenue growth, that is a good problem to have.
Not sure where the stock trades but it’s been flat for basically 6 months which has helped the multiple continue to stay more than reasonable. If Jensen really delivers, we could expect a serious multiple re-rating.
Having said that, even if it trades flat…if growth projections continue to increase…the multiple would once again look very attractive and make it one of the cheaper Mag 7s to continue adding to.
What do you think happens on earnings?
Top 15 stocks I would buy monday morning on a major dip: 👇
1. $TSLA
2. $IREN
3. $EOSE
4. $SOFI
5. $AMZN
6. $NBIS
7. $NVDA
8. $MSTR
9. $RKLB
10. $LMND
11. $ONDS
12. $HOOD
13. $NU
14. $GOOGL
15. $AMD
What stocks would you be buying? 👀
TRUMP:
- WE ARE IN A TRADE WAR WITH CHINA
- INDIA ASSURED ME THEY WOULD STOP BUYING RUSSIAN OIL
- 5 OR 6 WARS HAVE BEEN SOLVED BECAUSE OF MY USE OF TARIFFS
he's bringing back the tariff conversation again publicly
likely trying to gain more leverage before the meeting with China