$MSFT two years ago:
• ~$420/share
• Azure growing ~30% with $235B commercial RPO
• AI revenue barely measurable
$MSFT today:
• ~$420/share
• Azure re-accelerated to 40% growth with $627B Commercial RPO (+99% YoY)
• $37B AI ARR (+123% YoY) with 20M+ Copilot seats (+250% YoY)
• Maia 200 custom silicon in production
Same stock price two years later but AI business behind it is unrecognizable.
THE PHOTONICS LAYER OF THE AI BUILDOUT
Goldman Sachs says the AI optical networking market growing nearly 10x to $150B+ by 2028 as clusters scale into multi-rack systems like $NVDA Rubin Ultra NVL576.
The AI bottleneck is shifting to the fabric that lets hundreds of GPUs behave like one system driving a massive dollar content expansion across NVLink, co-packaged optics & optical interconnects:
• $AEHR burn-in & reliability test systems for photonics and AI hardware
• $AAOI data center optical transceivers with in-house laser manufacturing
• $LITE high-speed lasers & optical components for data center transceivers
• $VIAV optical testing & measurement tools used to validate high-speed networks
• $COHR lasers, photonic components & materials used across optical networking systems
• $MRVL optical DSPs, custom interconnect silicon & networking chips for AI infrastructure
• $CRDO retimers, DSPs & active electrical cables for rack-level signal integrity in AI clusters
$MU & $SNDK had a great day yesterday!
Let's see how far they can move. Memory stocks are still leading and they offered awesome, easy setups before!
I see people trade a lot of random stocks. Stick to the momentum leaders and your results will improve. Scan for the top 1% or 2% strongest stocks on any timeframe (1, 3, 6, 12 months etc) and look for the ones that obey the rising 10-, 20-, and 50-day moving averages.
The Photonics Ecosystem: Explained
Every segment, group, and notable stock within below. you'll want to bookmark this...
UPSTREAM
- Materials: $GLW $AXTI $ALMU $LWLG
- Wafer: $TSM $GFS $TSEM $SKWT
MIDSTREAM
- Optical Components: $HIMX $LPTH $OPTX $MTSI
- Lasers & Light: $LITE $IPGP $COHR $LASR
- Transceivers: $AAOI (+ others)
- Packaging: $FN $AMKR $POET
DOWNSTREAM
- Switch & Interconnect: $AVGO $MRVL $CRDO $NVDA
- Networking: $JNPR $CIEN $CSCO $ANET
- Testing: $AEHR $ONTO $VIAV $FORM
I made this tool to help me understand the segmentation of the photonics world. I am not a photonics expert. If I missed anything, or need to move something around, let me know!
BREAKING: AI can now analyze any stock like a Wall Street analyst (for free).
Here are 10 insane Claude prompts that replace $2,000/month Bloomberg terminals:(Save for later)
The more I swing trade, especially in trending environments, the less I want to take profits into strength. I’d rather hold full positions and trail the 10/20MAs. Catch a few of those monster movers, and they can make your whole year. Learning to trust the process more and more every day.
Looking for new fresh long ideas now that I lightened up my quantum longs
-Stock not up more than 100% over the past month (don't want to buy extended)
-Heavy insider selling
-Active DoJ or FTC investigation
-Pre-revenue but with a solid PowerPoint presentation
-Overly promotional/sleazy sales guy CEO with a history of failed companies and or fraud, also positive if wears gold chain, gold bracelet or has at extremely whitened teeth
-HQ in a strip mall
Any good ideas?
Seeing a lot of market over-analysis lately, which is usually a symptom of not having a clear process.
The Market Cycle Count is at +52 days — so for nearly 2 months, this has been a trending, bullish market. 10-day, 21-day, and 50-day moving averages are all rising. No reason to doubt or “stay cautious.” Shakeouts are normal. They create demand, better entries and fuel skepticism — something every strong trend thrives on.
We’re seeing healthy rotation: oilers, biotech, homebuilders, solar showing life. Semis like $NVDA continue to lead. Even crypto is back in motion with Bitcoin reclaiming highs.
While one segment of the market consolidates, another picks up. That’s a strong sign: money isn’t leaving, it’s rotating. Most traders struggle during these cycles because they aren’t holding leaders or don’t have a system to stay in the trend. And when you don’t have those positions, it’s hard to stay bullish.
52 days in, and I still see people waiting for the top, trying to be clever. Meanwhile, the weekly/monthly closing ranges are some of the strongest this year.
Final thought: Everything ends on a sour note eventually. All your big winners will pull back or stop you out. That’s part of it. The goal isn’t to nail tops and bottoms — it’s to sit through the middle of the move and maximize the bulk of the trend.
Stay with the process.
Don’t overthink.
The market’s been giving more than it’s been taking.
What are the strongest stocks right now? You can find them with this FREE screener! 💪📈
Here’s what we look for 👇
1. Stocks up 50–100% in recent weeks
2. 70%+ above the 52-week low
3. Clear, consistent uptrend
4. Simple, clean patterns (flags, cups, consolidations)
5. Volatility contraction
6. Strong volume = institutional demand
7. High-potential story or massive sales/EPS growth
📌 Link to the screener: https://t.co/iDZh2gLCQq
Not every stock will be a winner — but some will produce huge gains.
I win in only 30–40% of trades. But when I win, I aim for 5–7x my risk.
Anyone can learn to spot and trade these patterns. I’ve taught thousands how.
You must be willing to buy a stock after it’s up 100–200%! 🤯🚀
Most traders avoid strong stocks. Big mistake.
Here’s what we look for 👇
1. Huge momentum: Already +50–100% from lows
2. 100% or more above the 52-week low
3. Tight consolidation near EMA 8 or 21
4. Hot theme + real product + strong sales or EPS
📈 Stocks that double can double again — because there’s real demand. Smart money is buying, not selling.
But: Focus on stocks with real businesses. Avoid frauds or empty story stocks.
These patterns repeat over and over. You can learn them — just like I did.
I’m excited to be the Chief AI Officer of @Meta, working alongside @natfriedman, and thrilled to be accompanied by an incredible group of people joining on the same day.
Towards superintelligence 🚀