agree with this, mostly.
$ETH locally bearish/neutral after that huge expansion. wouldn't call the higher timeframe trend bearish yet though.
comes down to whether price rejects $2,566 area for me.
reject there and I'm expecting a pullback toward $2,300 first. reclaim it clean above that and continuation takes over instead.
not forcing a bias before price commits.
been getting good ideas on reads like this in the @liquidtrading discord, worth dropping in for more eyes on the confirmation: https://t.co/RPLXUmsi7x
been trading long enough to have a setup: chart in one tab, order book in another, feed in a third.
Co-Invest cuts that down to one.
price and trade button show up wherever the ticker already is. same execution quality you'd expect anywhere, just nothing standing between me and it.
that gap has cost me more entries than I'd like to admit.
The real listing hasn't even happened yet either, it goes live this week.
So that $9B vs $35B gap isn't hindsight, the market's already forecasting the rally. Most outside China can't buy it even after it lists either, the board's institutional-only.
@liquidtrading's had pre-listing exposure live for almost two weeks now, basically the only way to get exposure before it goes live.
Semis just had one of the weakest months in decades.
Everywhere I look, same read: the AI trade is breaking, demand's rolling over, the story's done. I don't buy it.
Earnings across the space beat estimates, and that's the first data point that actually touches demand instead of just positioning. Capex guidance keeps getting raised instead of walked back, the opposite of what a hyperscaler slowdown would look like. EPS estimates for the group aren't getting cut, they're holding steady straight through the month semis just had.
That's not what a demand rollover looks like. What it looks like is a positioning reset, crowded longs getting deleveraged out of a trade that got too popular too fast, not the fundamentals actually cracking.
Different thing entirely. The market's pricing it like it's the same thing.
I think the market's too bearish on semis right now, and I'm bullish on $SMH here. This reads like an overreaction to a violent month, not a repricing of the AI story itself.
The risk is real. If capex actually turns, if hyperscalers start guiding spend down instead of up, this thesis is wrong. It hasn't happened. Not yet.
What breaks that view? Capex actually slowing down.