iArb | 裁定取引

2nd rate alt governed by 1st principles. data & circuits | politics & art

[iArb | 裁定取引 @iarbpairs]

@worstcontrarian born to trade on the floor of the nyse. Forced to arb moderately illiquid token pairs that large entities write off due to sizing concerns

[iArb | 裁定取引 @iarbpairs]

@C2IRIS @log4j they refuse to pay enough

[Cobie @cobie]

@MarathonFusion they cant turn mercury into bitcoins boys

[Justin Elze @HackingLZ]

You’re all prompting wrong

[🇺🇸 𝕯𝖗𝖔𝖓𝖊 𝕱𝖗𝖊𝖓 🇵🇱🐍 @dronetreadonme]

Indian Cybersecurity Certificate holders be like

[iArb | 裁定取引 @iarbpairs]

@ssefXBT why were you using railway

[iArb | 裁定取引 @iarbpairs]

don't bet against zuck

[peepeepoopoo @DeepDishEnjoyer]

meta earnings: we're going to spend a bajillion dollars in capex

chips: down 1%

im tired man

[iArb | 裁定取引 @iarbpairs]

@DeepDishEnjoyer the market is in denial

[iArb | 裁定取引 @iarbpairs]

@mauddweeb

[iArb | 裁定取引 @iarbpairs]

@1a1n1d1y this unironically

[ZEUS LYKAIOS ❤️‍🔥🌲✋ @zeuslykaios]

@0xf3dz @iarbpairs @spiceh_mchaggis there has never been a "demand" for crypto mining that is in any way comparable to the demand for inference

[iArb | 裁定取引 @iarbpairs]

do I need to do a cybersec company

[Elon Litman @elon_lit]

There is an (unpatchable?) supply-chain zero-day in PyTorch autograd that allows a regularization term to use the model's weights as RAM and SGD as its CPU clock to run any computation during training.

[iArb | 裁定取引 @iarbpairs]

@zekramu

[iArb | 裁定取引 @iarbpairs]

@usr_bin_roygbiv crying

[iArb | 裁定取引 @iarbpairs]

hello beautiful

[iArb | 裁定取引 @iarbpairs]

@usr_bin_roygbiv go go go

[iArb | 裁定取引 @iarbpairs]

@spiceh_mchaggis @zeuslykaios reread

[iArb | 裁定取引 @iarbpairs]

don't mean to pick on anyone here

high margins + increasing competition != collapsing prices

the margins create incentive for new players and capacity expansion, but that doesn't imply supply will expand fast enough to meet demand. traders who spend time in markets with inelastic supply see this. high margins can persist for ages, and if demand is growing faster than real supply, prices hold or climb

when competition exists at multiple layers of the supply chain, players competing downstream are also bidding against each other for the same inputs upstream (hypergamy joke in here somewhere). more downstream competition can actually amplify upstream scarcity, pushing input prices higher even as production (IO) becomes more efficient

on fungibility, adding more competitors doesn't always create pricing pressure. regulatory moat, uptime, quantizing, etc.

what truly matters is:

effective competition at the margin > # of players

lower IO costs can unlock new sources of demand (agentic loops, hello), and if that demand expands faster than real supply, market can still get tighter

you can have falling unit costs, growing demand, rising input prices, and stable or increasing output prices at the same time. none of that is contradictory. the marginal buyer doesn't care what your IO costs are (I certainly don't, and neither does Jane Street)

competition creates pressure on economic rents, but it doesn't guarantee falling prices. that depends on supply elasticity, demand growth, fungibility, etc

I think people conflate tendency with law. the margins imply there's incentive for supply to change, not that it will respond quickly enough to bring prices down

[Nerv @satellitedown]

@TheAhmadOsman the prices are about to drop like a rock lol they're making over 80% margin on tokens right now and it's a race to the bottom

[iArb | 裁定取引 @iarbpairs]

@adarshsolanki better

[iArb | 裁定取引 @iarbpairs]

@usr_bin_roygbiv @RolfHaltza yes it's always in flux