WOLF333

Trading NQ futures/earnings catalysts (EAAC). Market recaps, live setups, no BS.

Substack:

[WOLF333 @ifItakethispill]

$GO $CRWV $OLLI

Thesis: https://t.co/C4sWjEjjh1

We are SHORT (NASDAQ: GO) into Tuesday’s Q3 AMC print. Full position.

The forecast line: the Street carries FY26 EPS at $0.55, which is exactly the top of the company’s own $0.51–0.55 range. The basis is management’s habit: under Jason Potter, all three full-year revisions raised the floor and left the ceiling alone. Asked in August why an eight-cent beat didn’t reach the year, the CFO said “we want to be prudent.”

Peer read: Ollie’s cut its comp and sales guides on a smaller basket, though deal flow stayed strong. Offsets: we expect the quarter to beat, 22.8% of the float is short, and Monday rose 6.5% on no news. Grading line: the top of the FY range vs $0.55.

[WOLF333 @ifItakethispill]

$QLYS $TTWO $APPS

Thesis: https://t.co/5jThPoE8hS

We are LONG (NASDAQ: QLYS) into Monday’s Q3 AMC print. Full position.

The forecast line: the Street carries Q3 at $186.5M and $1.95. We expect ~$189M and ~$2.12, a Q4 guide near $192M, and the full year raised to ~$741M from $732–738M. Qualys has beaten its own guide midpoint 1.2–2.1% for three straight quarters, and a beat that size forces the raise: holding the year would imply a sequential Q4 decline, which Qualys has never guided. November is where the February lowball gets corrected: +11.3%, +24.2% and +20.6% the last three years. Eleven of fifteen analysts rate it Hold, and estimates drifted lower.

Peer read: TENB beat, raised, guided Q4 slower, traded −7% after hours and closed +6.3%; RPD closed +2.7% while shrinking. Offsets: the prior Novembers came off washed-out bases and this stock is 150% off its low, and August already took part of the raise. Grading line: the Q4 guide and the FY raise.

[WOLF333 @ifItakethispill]

@andreacbz1994 Thanks and no problem I try not to be a hero when trading. Just trade what I know works.

[WOLF333 @ifItakethispill]

@andreacbz1994 Just for earnings we closed the trade out already. I have a separate place where I post entry and exit. The whole framework is swing trading earnings and selling next day. It was a standalone view for the earnings reaction only.

[WOLF333 @ifItakethispill]

@RJCcapital $AXTI 😮

[WOLF333 @ifItakethispill]

@RJCcapital You good?

[WOLF333 @ifItakethispill]

$ELF $APP $BROS

Thesis: https://t.co/UXQOLrLNNx

We are SHORT (NASDAQ: ELF) into Wednesday’s Q2 FY27 AMC print. Full position.

The forecast line: the Street carries FY27 EPS at $3.656, 3% above the top of the company’s own $3.50–3.55 range. If Q2 lands on consensus at 61 cents and every cent flows through, the year caps at $3.55. Clearing the Street takes 72 cents, an 18% beat. The back half is already guided down 4–6% on EBITDA as a $50M tariff refund gets reinvested. rhode annualizes in August, so reported growth drops ~23 points next quarter no matter what. The guide’s own math says legacy keeps shrinking 6–15%.

Peer read: Coty guides mass beauty down this quarter; Ulta has mass makeup down low single digits. Offsets: EL and ULTA just raised, nine PT raises in October, a 73-cent whisper. Grading line: revised FY EPS range vs $3.656.

[WOLF333 @ifItakethispill]

@kevinxu WOW

[WOLF333 @ifItakethispill]

@kevinxu Dude

[WOLF333 @ifItakethispill]

$FN $SHOP $NVDA

Thesis: https://t.co/TNTab8KLtk

We are LONG (NASDAQ: FN) into Monday’s FQ1 AMC print. Full position.

The forecast line: the Street carries December-quarter revenue at $1.48B, and we expect a guide midpoint near $1.515B. That rests on a customer-by-customer build plus the merchant transceiver program management said starts in December. Worked backward, the Street’s number assumes Fabrinet keeps losing share. Ours is what holding share looks like. The stock is at its 52-week low, 58% off the high, while FY27 EPS estimates rose 24% in six months with zero cuts. Peer read: Celestica beat-and-raised from its own low and closed +12.1%; LITE guided December +27% this morning.

[WOLF333 @ifItakethispill]

@KoalaQuillHQ It was just for earnings not meant to be a medium/long term play. Earnings trades off of guidance. That 23% run up gave it fuel to go lower.

[WOLF333 @ifItakethispill]

$RBLX $RDDT $AMZN

Thesis: https://t.co/Xhs6IsW3DZ

We are SHORT (NYSE: RBLX) into Thursday's Q3 AMC print. Full position.

The forecast line: the Street carries Q4 bookings at $2.02B, up from $1.98B three weeks ago. Our three run-rate methods average $1.97B. If management prices in GTA VI (launching Nov 19, mid-quarter, aimed at the 13+ users that were growing) and a 40% drop in sign-ups heading into the holiday wave, it's ~$1.91B. Bank of America reached the same number on its own. Since 2024, Roblox has guided below the Street three times. The stock closed down every time, by 22% on average, including on a 4% cut.

Peer read: no public company shares the model. Circana has PS5 units +22% in September on Wolverine and GTA VI pre-orders. Offsets: the run-rate gap is only 2.5%, Q3 and DAUs likely beat first, Roblox has never named a competitor in a guide, and a short report two days ago sets up a squeeze. Grading line: Q4 bookings guide vs $2.02B.

[WOLF333 @ifItakethispill]

$RBLX $CMG $CAKE $AMKR

Thesis: https://t.co/2XAr9Qhdog

Week 3 of Q4 recap: RBLX short +14%, CMG long +5.5%, CAKE long −2.4%, AMKR short −4%. About +13 points on the week. Q4 record 4-4, about +17 points.

All four moved on a forward guide, and every call that a guide would land below the Street went 7 for 7 across the slate. What split wins from losses was which bar the market graded against. Only RBLX traded on the Street’s number; management priced in GTA VI, our exact premise. AMKR guided under the Street but posted its mildest October step ever from a 52-week low: relief. CAKE crushed the quarter and missed on Q4 EPS framing against a chased bar. CMG framed Q4 below the Street but above the feared +1%. Full post-mortem on Substack.

Not investment advice.

[WOLF333 @ifItakethispill]

@WheelieInvestor A trader unlike the world has ever seen

[WOLF333 @ifItakethispill]

$RBLX Earnings is not sounding the best

[WOLF333 @ifItakethispill]

$RBLX $RDDT $AMZN

Thesis: https://t.co/Xhs6IsW3DZ

We are SHORT (NYSE: RBLX) into Thursday's Q3 AMC print. Full position.

The forecast line: the Street carries Q4 bookings at $2.02B, up from $1.98B three weeks ago. Our three run-rate methods average $1.97B. If management prices in GTA VI (launching Nov 19, mid-quarter, aimed at the 13+ users that were growing) and a 40% drop in sign-ups heading into the holiday wave, it's ~$1.91B. Bank of America reached the same number on its own. Since 2024, Roblox has guided below the Street three times. The stock closed down every time, by 22% on average, including on a 4% cut.

Peer read: no public company shares the model. Circana has PS5 units +22% in September on Wolverine and GTA VI pre-orders. Offsets: the run-rate gap is only 2.5%, Q3 and DAUs likely beat first, Roblox has never named a competitor in a guide, and a short report two days ago sets up a squeeze. Grading line: Q4 bookings guide vs $2.02B.

[WOLF333 @ifItakethispill]

$CMG $GOOG $CAVA

Thesis: https://t.co/MR2SvxCc1u…

We are LONG (NYSE: CMG) into Wednesday's Q3 AMC print. Full position.

The forecast line: the Street's Q4 revenue implies a comp of about +3%. We expect management to frame Q4 at +3.5–4%, because it has beaten its own next-quarter framing three straight times since the October 2025 reset, by 1.4 points on average. The one October in four years when Chipotle framed Q4 above Q3, new pricing was landing in the quarter. That setup is back: a price step in Q4, the easiest lap of the series (−2.5%), the cyclospora drag gone, and Smoked Brisket returning Nov 5

[WOLF333 @ifItakethispill]

$CAKE $ETSY $HOOD

Thesis: https://t.co/Hshf3W3Wiy

We are LONG (NASDAQ: CAKE) into Tuesday’s Q3 AMC print. Full position.

The forecast line: the Street carries Q4 revenue at $1,038.7M; we expect a guide midpoint near $1.06B. The basis is management’s own habit: every October for three years, the Q4 midpoint was set 4.5–6% above the Q3 just reported. And Q3 ran hot. Placer has visits +9.7% in a flat category, Kalshi is at a 10.1% comp, and UBS has low-teens, against 9.1% consensus. CAKE has beaten its own margin guide 8 of 9 quarters, and a hot Q3 lifts the FY margin above July’s 5.4% on arithmetic alone. When estimates rose into the print, it closed green 5 of 6 times.

Peer read: DRI was sold from near its high, and EAT reports before the open. Offsets: EPS estimates up 6.6% in a week, a record; TikTok attention 40% off peak; 22% short. Grading line: Q4 revenue midpoint vs $1,038.7M and FY margin raised.

[WOLF333 @ifItakethispill]

$AMKR

Are these results real LOL what am I reading right now…