pearl

Public servant, wife and mother.

[pearl @ifypearls]

This account is managed by two persons - a female, who's very reserved and a male, who's an extrovert, with small madness. Sit back and enjoy your time here, with this couple.

[Stockman @StockmanNigeria]

Why I May Not Join The Dangote Refinery IPO
=========

Before anyone misunderstands me, let me be clear. This is not because Dangote Refinery is a bad business. Far from it.

In many respects, it is one of the most important industrial projects in Africa today. It has reshaped Nigeria's fuel supply chain, reduced dependence on imports, expanded local refining capacity, and attracted significant investor interest even before the public offer. Private placement demand reportedly exceeded $2 billion, while market estimates have placed the refinery's valuation in the $40–50 billion range.

So why would an investor choose not to participate?

Because investing is not just about buying great businesses. It is about buying them at the right price. That distinction matters.

The closer we get to the IPO, the more the conversation sounds emotional rather than analytical. Many investors are approaching the offer with the mindset that because the refinery is large, strategic, and owned by Dangote, it must automatically be a great investment.

History teaches otherwise.

A great company can become a poor investment when expectations become too high.

The refinery is no longer a hidden opportunity. The market already knows the story. The success, the scale, the monopoly concerns, the export potential, and the growth narrative have all been widely discussed.

In investing, when everyone already knows the story, a significant portion of the future optimism may already be reflected in the valuation. That is my first concern.

My second concern is the opportunity cost. If large institutional investors, pension funds, and fund managers rotate capital into Dangote Refinery, some existing NGX stocks may come under temporary pressure. Quality companies with proven dividend histories, established earnings records, and lower valuations could become cheaper as capital seeks the new opportunity.

In other words, Dangote Refinery may create opportunities outside Dangote Refinery. That possibility deserves attention.

My third concern is information asymmetry.

Today, investors are debating valuation targets, potential listing prices, and future returns. Yet many of the most important variables remain unknown to the wider market. The final valuation, offer structure, dividend policy, future capital requirements, and long-term earnings profile will ultimately determine whether the investment succeeds.

Without those details, I would rather be patient than emotional. There is another lesson investors often forget.

Missing an IPO does not mean missing an investment opportunity. Many successful investors did not buy the first day.

They waited.
They watched.
They studied the numbers.

Then they invested when the risk-reward equation made sense.

So my position is simple.

I am not saying I will never own Dangote Refinery shares. I am saying I may not rush into the IPO simply because everyone else is excited.

The market rewards discipline more often than enthusiasm. And sometimes, the best investment decision is not asking, "How do I get in?"bIt is asking, "What am I missing?"

@StockmanNigeria

[Nsisong Effiong @nsisong101]

@Ssaasquatch I don't think 1M for 7+ years experience is fair? That's barely $750 and I earned more at my first job straight out of University in 2013. Best solution is to make Nigeria work, but last elections one of the biggest founders supported Tinubu. Can't plant lime and harvest oranges

[pearl @ifypearls]

@Ssaasquatch Lmao. But at least, you guys came second and won 2 trophies.

[pearl @ifypearls]

@TosinOlugbenga @Ssaasquatch @ugwu_kj Na runaway Arsenal fan, wey run enter Barcelona.

[pearl @ifypearls]

@Ssaasquatch @0xable1 Send aza lemme complete it for you. Small things.

[-valar morghulis- @eldivine]

I'm starting from here so that you guys will understand when I say even with all that effort, senior talent is still extremely hard to find in this ecosystem. I don't just mean designers.

High quality PMs, executive level mangers, strong technical talent and systems thinkers are hard to find at Scale.

This is partially to be blamed on japa but also critically on our education system which needs a massive overhaul.

Instead of lashing out at people who point this out, why don't we focus on how to solve it.

[Peter Obi @PeterObi]

Today, Wednesday, I had the honour and privilege of hosting the European Union Ambassador to Nigeria, His Excellency, Mr. Gautier Mignot at my residence in Onitsha. It was an enriching meeting as we shared some useful conversations. -PO

[Peter Obi @PeterObi]

Yesterday, Monday 30th March, I returned to the North's Commercial nerve centre, Kano, on the invitation of my dear elder brother, Senator, Rabiu Musa Kwankwaso @KwankwasoRM, whose decision to join our party marks yet another significant step in the collective effort to rescue and rebuild our democracy and dear nation, Nigeria.

As I have consistently maintained, this is the time for all opposition forces and well-meaning Nigerians to set aside their differences and work together in unity of purpose.

Nigeria is at a critical stage in its history, one that demands sacrifice, courage, and selflessness from all of us. The challenges we face, economic hardship, insecurity, unemployment, and declining public trust, require more than rhetoric. They require deliberate collaboration, disciplined leadership, and a shared commitment to national progress.

We must move beyond the politics of division, ethnicity, religion, and region, and embrace the politics of competence, character, capacity, compassion, and commitment to a better Nigeria. The task before us is not about winning elections alone; it is about rebuilding institutions, restoring confidence in governance, and securing a better future for our children.

I therefore call on all members of the opposition, and indeed every patriotic Nigerian, to see this moment as a defining one. A moment that calls for unity over division, service over self, and nation over personal interest.

A new Nigeria is POssible, but it will require all of us, working together, making sacrifices, and staying committed to the vision of a just, equitable, and prosperous nation. -PO

[pearl @ifypearls]

Please any news about Cashcraft? That company did a lot of folks dirty. I still curse Frank for bringing that company my way.

[Stockman @StockmanNigeria]

#FromTheAnalystTable

The Beauty of Betting, T-Bill, Commercial Papers, and Blue Chip Stocks- From My Old Diary 😂

Let me tell you a story from my former office. (Cashcraft Capital)

We were four in the asset management team, same office, similar salaries, same access to information. But our choices were very different.

Kunle-(Team Lead, Research) was the great “market guy.”

Every morning, charts, signals, hot stocks. In and out. Some weeks he made money, other weeks he gave it back. Always busy, always chasing.

Taiwo was different.
Quiet, sharp, and very deliberate. He focused on blue-chip stocks, banks, telecoms, companies with strong earnings. He bought, held, and reinvested dividends. No noise, no pressure. Just steady, calculated moves.

Sadiq was even calmer.
He stayed with Treasury Bills and occasionally commercial papers from solid companies. His returns were predictable. No drama, no surprises, just steady growth.

Then there was Mr Yaks.

Mr Yaks didn’t believe in “slow money.”
He said all of us were too conservative. He preferred betting, football slips, odds, jackpots. Every weekend, he was sure this was the one that would change everything.

Sometimes, he won, and he made sure everyone knew.
But most times, he was quiet.

Years passed.

Kunle was still chasing.

Taiwo had built a strong portfolio that was paying him consistently.
Sadiq had peace of mind and steady capital growth.

Mr Yaks?

Still chasing one big win.

That was when it became clear:

Wealth is not about how much you know, it’s about what you do consistently.

Some build quietly.
Some chase loudly.

But time always tells the truth.

[Mr. Possible @Mrpossidez]

As someone who lived in Lagos before exiting, I believe that to genuinely enjoy Lagos, you must fall into one of four categories:

(1) You’re an occasional IJGB visitor, returning intermittently and selectively, buoyed mostly by nostalgia and the romance of distance.

(2) You have never lived in a properly functioning city outside Nigeria for more than 3 consecutive months; a strenuous visit to Zanzibar or Kenya every other year does not qualify.

(3) Your income, social or other advantages are so tightly coupled to Lagos that leaving would require an intolerable loss of status, access, or opportunity making you a rational actor under enormous constraints.

(4) You are temperamentally suited to chaos and tolerant of disorder in a manner that is so unusual, it would be best explained by a rare combination of low intelligence, a comfortingly low threshold for environmental expectations, and the possession of just the right physical resilience required to absorb the daily friction.

Outside these categories, Lagos is utterly a hell hole. I will always stand by this. More than half the world’s population would struggle to believe it is even possible to live under conditions this hostile especially because those conditions are obscured by a remarkable asymmetry between everyday lived experience and the city’s relentless PR.

[pearl @ifypearls]

@Tbabz__ @0xYinka Nigerian leaders can't believe their luck. They're ruling over the highest concentration of idiots per m².

[Temitayo O. Esq @Tbabz__]

Macron wore a €2,400 wristwatch and hid his hands under the table to subtly remove it mid interview. He was crucified for it by the entire country. You people have no idea how much abuse your politicians are subjecting you to.

[pearl @ifypearls]

E be like say Grok aired you oh.

[Mr Josh Bertram Madu @JoshBertramMadu]

@eldivine @grok how much is this? in Naira, and where can one buy it from?

[pearl @ifypearls]

@efearue Hmmm. Does this mean that the likes of Cashcraft won't be in business anymore?

[pearl @ifypearls]

@Rufyb What's the corresponding stat for BUA? I'm willing to learn something.

[pearl @ifypearls]

@anthonyuzum You're lucky that you don't have any outstanding shares with Coronation Registrars, you'd have bled. They're dealing with my husband as it stands.

[pearl @ifypearls]

Lmao.

[Talented🏀🏀 🇳🇬🇿🇦 @TalentedFBG]

Realistically, no one in Nigeria will have 150m and buy car worth 9m 😂

No one

[pearl @ifypearls]

Just reckoned that this is the first time I'm seeing you post your face here.

[Ewgi @Ssaasquatch]

F1 weekending

[Gerald Okolie Esq. (KSM) @MaziGerald]

God. Is this how the family of this young lady, will have a bleak Christmas? I remember when my brother was missing in December, 2007. We couldn't have a great Xmas, until he's found in January. I pray this family finds their girl, safe and sound.

[Gerald Okolie Esq. (KSM) @MaziGerald]

I read this thing with tears in my eyes. See empathy. Kai. God abeg oh.