factsideas

[zerohedge @zerohedge]

There's Much Riding On Earnings As Stock Valuations Hit Record High https://t.co/6Kb9iK793A

[BraVoCycles Newsletter @BraVoCycles]

Semiconductor Index ($SOX) Long Cycles

The three dominant long swing cycles have turned down.

I do not want to be long $SOX.

[Barchart @Barchart]

CTAs are projected to sell stocks in EVERY SINGLE SCENARIO over the next week 🚨🚨

[Henrik Zeberg @HenrikZeberg]

If you do not spot this - the largest Bubble ever - then Finance and Investing is not your thing!

It is 100% a Bubble. And it will 100% burst.

Enjoy the last gasp of Air in it. It will be powerful. Both final push and the Crash.

[zerohedge @zerohedge]

The option market has never been more bullish on chips, or more bearish on gold

[Henrik Zeberg @HenrikZeberg]

#ECB hiking rate yesterday shows an institution which completely lacks understanding of the Dynamics of the Economy. And also do not study history!

Inflation is a LATE-PHASE phenomenon. It is NOT to be reacted (in the late-phase) on, as the Slow-down in the Economy is already slowing inflation.

You hike when the Economy is strengthening. Not when weakening!

Observe the chart below!

The GDP growth is already close to ZERO in the Euro-zone - and trend is down. Consumer is under considerable pressure.

And yet.... ECB hikes rates - just like in 2008 - at the exact same levels - and with the same trend in GDP and Sentiment like in 2008 (and in 2001).

You cannot make this up! This is going to haunt the ECB in the coming years.

[Henrik Zeberg @HenrikZeberg]

There is 100% a Tech Bubble. And it will 100% burst. And we are closing in!

Read my article here:
https://t.co/PC76KCOIgs

[Global Markets Investor @GlobalMktObserv]

⚠️The US equity market has never been this OVERVALUED:

A record 40% of US stocks trade at an EV(enterprise value)/Sales ratio of over 10x.

This percentage has QUADRUPLED since the 2022 bear market.

This also exceeds the 2000 Dot-Com Bubble peak by ~5 points.

Furthermore, stocks trading above 20x sales now account for ~13% of total US equity market cap, the highest in 26 years.

Is this the most expensive market in history?

[Henrik Zeberg @HenrikZeberg]

Let's just agree....

"The Blow-Off-Top thesis" has been proven CORRECT!

I began to talk about that in Mid-2022 - exactly at the take-off into the larger 5th wave.

[Henrik Zeberg @HenrikZeberg]

Geopolitical Factors at most provide volatility in the markets. They do not set the direction of the Economy or of the Markets.

Oil is heading lower - because of the weakness of the Consumer.

All that chitchat of Oil at 200 USD....

[Otavio (Tavi) Costa @TaviCosta]

There is nothing more technically bullish than a 40-year resistance level turning into major support.

That is exactly where gold miners sit today.

Act accordingly.

https://t.co/7Y87Aem7Ag

[Guilherme Tavares @i3_invest]

This is not a "sell-everything" signal, as the tape remains bullish.

However, it is a warning that the last time the Nasdaq 100 was this decoupled from the stock that best represents value investing, it did not bode well.

Is this time different? Only time will tell.

[Julian Klymochko @JulianKlymochko]

History doesn't repeat but it often rhymes.

March 2000, June 2008, and February 2021 were wonderful times to begin shorting high beta stocks.

[BraVoCycles Newsletter @BraVoCycles]

The 100-year bull market is reaching its ultimate extension. ⏳

Super-cycle wave (III) has matured over the last century, pushing the S&P 500 into the highest overvaluation extreme in history—surpassing both the 1929 and 2000 Dot-Com peaks.

Markets are fractal in nature. No trend moves in a straight line forever.

What's next?
A secular Super-cycle wave (IV) correction. It will devastate unprepared buy-and-hold portfolios, but it will lay the exact structural foundation for a generational wave (V) bull market.

Position accordingly. 👇

[Global Markets Investor @GlobalMktObserv]

⚠️This is INSANE:

Call options share has hit 70% of total US options market volume, the highest level since the MEME STOCK MANIA peak in 2021.

Over the last few weeks, the call options share has risen almost in a STRAIGHT LINE.

Overall, the total value of the S&P 500 call options traded has SURPASSED the S&P 500 market value by 300%.

Just 2 months ago, S&P 500 call options total notional value was 100% higher than the index market cap.

There is almost no appetite for put options. How does this end?

[Global Markets Investor @GlobalMktObserv]

‼️The current frenzy in US semiconductors is unlike anything seen in the market's history:

Semiconductor & Tech Hardware now reflects 29% of the S&P 500's market cap, AN ALL-TIME HIGH.

This share has TRIPLED since the 2020 market recovery.

This now surpasses the 2000 Dot-Com Bubble peak by 5 percentage points.

The Semiconductor sector, $SOX, is now trading 67% above its 200-day moving average, the largest margin since the Dot Com Bubble Burst and the 2nd-largest reading EVER.

This is getting seriously dangerous.

Great chart: @SoFi

[zerohedge @zerohedge]

The panic: investors buying OTM call options on 3x levered ETFs

[BraVoCycles Newsletter @BraVoCycles]

US consumers are out of savings.

Personal spending growth is trending higher, while income growth is trending down.

The gap should be closed. Which way?

[BraVoCycles Newsletter @BraVoCycles]

100 Years of U.S. Equity Cycles: Are We Facing a Generational Turning Point? 📈

The secular super-cycle wave (III) has been building since the absolute ashes of the 1929 market crash. Today, the S&P 500 is fast approaching the terminal completion of Cycle-degree Wave V.

Price has recently pushed above the critical multi-decade upper channel line connecting the 1929 and 2000 Dot-Com peaks.

Consensus calls this the birth of a new, endless bull run.
But Elliott Wave principles warn of a far different outcome: The Classic Channel Throwover.

If history and structural guidelines hold:
🔴 A sharp reversal back inside the channel is imminent.
🔴 A prolonged, multi-year Wave (IV) correction will follow.
🔴 The silver lining? A massive 50-year Wave (V) generational buying opportunity awaits on the other side.

"Every great cycle must come to an end."

[Global Markets Investor @GlobalMktObserv]

🔴Young investors are taking MORE FINANCIAL RISKS than any generation before them:

62% of US investors under 35 say they need to take significant risks to reach their financial goals, compared to a third of all investors surveyed, according to the FINRA National Financial Capability Report.

~43% of investors under 35 report trading options, more than 4 times the ~10% seen among those over 55.

Furthermore, ~28% of investors under 35 have purchased MEME stocks or other viral investments, compared to just ~2% of those over 55.

Meanwhile, retail trading volumes are up +28% since mid-April, according to Goldman Sachs.

Mom-and-pop investors are gambling more than ever.