Igor Gretskiy

Research fellow, International Centre for Defence and Security, @ICDS_Tallinn

[Igor Gretskiy @IgorGretskiy]

Yesterday, Putin claimed 🇷🇺 army is advancing in Zaporizhzhia Oblast at 0.8-1.3 km per day "along the front and the same in depth." UAF still control 6,600 sq km there. At that pace, occupying it alone would take 11-28 yrs. Looks like Putin wants Zaporizhzhia for his 100th b-day.

[ICDS Tallinn @ICDS_Tallinn]

Up until March, discussion in Russia's expert circles was not about whether Russia would win, but when and how.

This spring has brought a marked shift in mood among the expert community, writes @IgorGretskiy. https://t.co/YjDM2Q2bmA

[ICDS Tallinn @ICDS_Tallinn]

"We can’t be the ones who are begging Russia to talk to us."

Russia hoped talks with the Americans would achieve what it couldn’t on the battlefield, but that hasn’t worked because we’ve continued supporting Ukraine on the battlefield. @kajakallas

#LennartMeriConference

[ICDS Tallinn @ICDS_Tallinn]

📄 A selection of @ICDS_Tallinn publications is available for conference guests to browse and take away.

#LennartMeriConference

[ICDS Tallinn @ICDS_Tallinn]

The wait is almost over, just one more day to go. See you tomorrow!

The Lennart Meri Conference is an invitation-only event, but many of our discussions can be followed via public livestream.

Learn more: https://t.co/6nIJRFQY21

Fortune Favours the Brave
#LennartMeriConference

[Diplomaatia @diplomaatia]

Selleks, et üldse jõuda olukorda, kus venelased oleksid valmis läbi rääkima, tuleks nad panna märksa keerulisemasse seisu, kus neil tekiks tõeline soov sõda lõpetada. Praegu sellist olukorda silmapiiril ei ole. @KristiRaik @DelfiEE https://t.co/yxOpyxOzgo

[ICDS Tallinn @ICDS_Tallinn]

Estonia, unlike pre-2014 Ukraine, has a clear understanding of the principal external threats to its sovereignty and would not face Russian aggression alone.

Ukraine in the spring of 2014 and Estonia today differ fundamentally, writes @IgorGretskiy.

[ICDS Tallinn @ICDS_Tallinn]

A Donbas scenario becomes plausible when a disoriented society, a demoralised military, a compromised elite, and no reliable allies converge.

Russia deploys its “little green men” only after such conditions are carefully prepared. @IgorGretskiy https://t.co/WmC5xF4h5l

[Daniel Szeligowski @dszeligowski]

Russians are obsessed with documents - treaties, agreements, protocols, memoranda. They have to have literally everything on paper (Ribbentrop-Molotov pact had a secret protocol). Yet somehow they are unable to show us a document with a written promise on NATO enlargement. Why?

[ICDS Tallinn @ICDS_Tallinn]

An infiltration by the “little green men” into Estonia is a scenario that would fail.

The question “Is Narva next?” has become a persistent theme in international journalistic discourse. The answer is unequivocally ��no’.

@MarekKohv explains why Estonia’s security remains firm.

[Daniel Szeligowski @dszeligowski]

This should long have been a target. Because it produces UAVs to attack Ukraine, but also because in case of any confrontation between Russia and NATO, it would produce UAVs to attack NATO countries. Shoot the archer. Give Ukraine the means to do the job and they will do it

[Igor Gretskiy @IgorGretskiy]

This is something new: a satirical social media page that publishes fictional news is being used as a source for analysis on Russia. And for some reason, Peskov is even described here as Russia’s foreign minister.

https://t.co/siGIasImAa

[toomas hendrik ilves @IlvesToomas]

Really??

Doesn’t matter if you’re a war criminal?

Resign now

[Diplomaatia @diplomaatia]

Kuni 28. veebruari hommikuni uskus Kreml, et Trumpi juhtimisel järgib USA oma uuendatud riikliku julgeolekustrateegia põhimõtteid ja piirab oma huvisfääri läänepoolkeraga, ent USA–Iisraeli sõjaline ühisoperatsioon nurjas need arvestused. @IgorGretskiy
https://t.co/SKslej1ONl

[Daniel Szeligowski @dszeligowski]

It took Witkoff two meetings to conclude that Iran was not serious about a deal. Somehow, after more than a year, he still has not even managed to notice that Russia is not serious about a deal either

[Kate from Kharkiv @BohuslavskaKate]

Witkoff on Russian-Ukraine war: "It really is a silly war. And they're fighting over this territory. Everyone throws the word "dignity" around, but what does dignity get you if you have that amount of killing"

Oh, you little bothsidist shit! Silly war? Tell that to the invaders. Go on, tell them, why don’t you? No, you say "Silly war," but what you really mean is "Silly resistance."

And what does dignity give us? Our future. We gain a dignified peace, and it will last. Without it, we will all die in occupied Ukraine in FSB basements and torture chambers.

[Diplomaatia @diplomaatia]

Üleskutse eelistada tulistamisele kõnelusi kõlab mõistlikult. Kuid kui seda teha poliitilist konteksti arvestamata, riske läbi analüüsimata ja selgeid eesmärke seadmata, võivad sellised sammud viia hoopis vastupidise tulemuseni. @IgorGretskiy @postimees https://t.co/WR0YN2jRPC

[Igor Gretskiy @IgorGretskiy]

@dszeligowski Interestingly, since mid-January the Kremlin has resumed criticizing the US. From the time of Trump’s inauguration, this had been a red line that Russian officials had avoided crossing.

[Igor Gretskiy @IgorGretskiy]

@labuszewska Ta sprzeczka wydaje się, że miała miejsce jeszcze przed inwazją, w 2021 roku.

[Diplomaatia @diplomaatia]

Üleskutsetes taasalustada kontakte Kremliga torkab silma selge eesmärgitunnetuse puudumine.

Putiniga läbirääkimiste kogemusi on küllaldaselt ning neid ei saa pidada edukaks. Kremlis tõlgendatakse seda kutsena tingida Euroopa julgeoleku üle. @IgorGretskiy https://t.co/iUfv2oVn2U