BREAKING NEWS | @DeptofWar announces 25 Drone Dominance Program Gauntlet I Vendors.
@SecWar’s Drone Dominance Program is giving acquisition power back to the warfighters.
USNDA is proud to co-announce the DoW’s selections for 25 vendor invitations, and to partner on executing.
$ONDS was the second MOST traded stock yesterday.
People are beginning to realize the pullback was oversold and had nothing to do with Ondas' business.
The Avg. analyst PT is over $17, AND they just had $1B stock & warrants sell at a premium of $16.45
I envision more upside as buyers try to get back in before we take off to ATH and $20+ 🚀
$ONDS from $10 to $75+ isn't a question of if. It's when.
This is WHY $ONDS is the MOST asymmetric defense play in the market:
$ONDS is the ONLY small drone company in the world with FAA Type Certification.
Not a waiver. Not an exemption. Full type certification—the same standard required for Boeing aircraft.
This took 5-7 years and tens of millions to achieve.
Competitors starting today won't have this until 2031-2033.
By then, $ONDS will have thousands of deployed systems and locked-in incumbent positions with tier-1 customers.
The revenue that's actually happening::
> 2024: ~$8-9M revenue
> 2025: $47.6-49.6M revenue (6x growth)
> 2026 Guidance: $170-180M revenue (260% growth)
That's 20x revenue growth in two years.
But here's what everyone's missing:
Q4 2025 revenue was $27-29M. More than half the year's total in a single quarter.
Backlog: $65.3M (up 180% in 60 days)
Most defense tech startups are perpetually undercapitalized, burning through cash trying to scale.
$ONDS just raised $1 billion. Pro-forma cash: $1.5B+.
They can fund 18-24 months of operations without needing another dollar.
Meanwhile they're acquiring battle-tested tech from Ukraine and allied nations at fire-sale valuations because those companies are capital-constrained.
The M&A pipeline: 20+ targets. 7 in advanced negotiation.
Each acquisition adds proven tech + revenue + customer relationships.
While competitors run demos in parking lots, $ONDS platforms are deployed in active combat zones RIGHT NOW:
Iron Drone Raider: Kinetic C-UAS protecting European critical infrastructure. Multi-million dollar production order announced February 2026.
Roboteam UGVs: Deployed with U.S. Special Operations Forces and IDF in active operations.
4M Defense: $30M multi-year smart demining contract clearing 741 acres along Israel-Syria border.
Optimus: 12 operational airbases, 10,000+ flights logged. FAA Type Certified for autonomous ops over populated areas.
The integration advantage:
Every other company sells point solutions:
> Some makes surveillance drones
> Some makes ground robots
> Some counter-drone jammers
Ondas built a unified system-of-systems:
> Ground robots (Roboteam tactical UGVs)
>Counter-UAS (kinetic + electronic warfare)
> Autonomous air platforms (Optimus, Iron Drone Raider, WASP)
> Unified command & control (single interface managing air + ground + cyber-RF)
When a hostile drone approaches a protected site:
Detection → AI identifies threat → System THEN coordinates response (kinetic intercept OR cyber-RF takeover OR ground unit deployment) → Neutralization → ALL autonomous.
Response time: seconds to minutes. No competitor delivers this.
The valuation disconnect:
TAM: $117B globally by 2030
C-UAS: $52B
UAS: $51.6B
UGV: $15.8B
Ondas 2030 target: $1.5B revenue = 1.3% market share
At $1.5B revenue with 30% EBITDA margins:
> Current market cap: ~$2-3B
> EBITDA: $450M
> At 25-35x EBITDA (defense tech standard): $11.25B-$15.75B market cap
That's 4-6x from here if they execute on just 1.3% market share.
A company with:
> FAA Type Certification (only one globally)
> Blue UAS approval (federal government trust)
> Combat-proven platforms (active deployment)
> $1.5B war chest (largest in sector)
> Integrated system-of-systems (no competitor offers this)
…should capture more than 1% of a $117 billion market.
The path to profitability:
Current state: ~26% gross margin, investing heavily in manufacturing + M&A integration
Q3 2026 target: EBITDA positive at product-company layer (OAS division)
2030 model:
> Revenue: $1.5B
> EBITDA margin: 30%
> EBITDA: $450M
Management expects product-level profitability by Q3 2026. That's the inflection point that proves the business model works at scale.
This isn't risk-free:
> Acquired 5+ companies in 2 years (integration is hard)
> Defense procurement is lumpy (quarterly variability)
> Scaling from $50M to $1.5B in 5 years requires flawless execution
> January 2026 raise significantly diluted shareholders
> Heavy competition from well-funded players ($SKYD raised $230M, Anduril $1.5B+)
But here's what matters:
The market is real. The demand is urgent. The technology is proven. The competitive advantages are genuine.
The bottom line:
> $ONDS at $10:
> 2026 revenue: $170-180M (260% growth)
> Backlog: $65.3M (+180% in 60 days)
> Cash: $1.5B+ (war chest for M&A and scaling)
> EBITDA positive target: Q3 2026
> TAM: $117B (they need 1.3% for $1.5B revenue)
> Combat-proven in active conflict zones
> Only FAA Type Certified autonomous drone platform globally
Analyst targets:
H.C. Wainwright: $25 (107% upside)
Stifel: $17
8 BUY ratings, 0 SELL
Defense spending is reorienting toward autonomous systems. Ukraine proved low-cost drones can destroy million-dollar tanks. Every military base, airport, and critical infrastructure site globally needs C-UAS.
$ONDS owns the regulatory moats, battle-tested tech, and capital to dominate this transition.
From $10 to $75+ isn't a question of if. It's when.
Position: Adding.
This is my HIGHEST conviction defense play for 2026.
Note: This is NOT financial advice. Please, do your own research.
Don’t think I’ve ever seen this before.
Nearly every analyst covering $ONDS increased their price targets today following Friday’s 2026 Investor Day event.
The only one that didn’t was Stifel, who increased it just over a week ago.
Ladenburg Thalmann $13 ➡️ $20
Northland Securities $10 ➡️ $16
H.C. Wainwright $12 ➡️ $25
Oppenheimer $12 ➡️ $16
Lake Street $10 ➡️ $19
Needham $12 ➡️ $17
Maxim $10 ➡️ $16
Stifel $13 ➡️ $17 (last week)
Current share price: $13.13
Average price target: $18.25
Potential upside: +39%
$ONDS
WOW. WOW. WOW.
Ondas expects to report revenue of $27.0 to $29.0 million for the quarter ended December 31, 2025, 51% higher than the prior Q4 2025 revenue target.
For the full year ended December 31, 2025, expected revenue is between $47.6 and $49.6 million, 23% higher than the prior full-year revenue target for 2025.
Ondas' prior revenue targets for Q4 2025 and full-year 2025 included a contribution of $3 - 4 million for Roboteam which closed in December 2025.
Additionally, on a preliminary basis, Ondas' estimated backlog is $65.3 million as of December 31, 2025, a 180% increase from $23.3 million on November 13, 2025.
The Company's pro-forma cash balance exceeds $1.5 billion as of December 31, 2025, adjusted for the Company's recent offering of approximately $1.0 billion.
The Office of Research & Engineering’s 2025 Recap:
✅Rebuilding the Arsenal of Freedom
✅Creating an AI-first @DeptofWar
✅Achieving Technological Dominance