ikkinthekitsune

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[ikkinthekitsune @ikkinthekitsune]

@TonerousHyus Ongoing attacks on Russian and Saudi oil infrastructure, plus the implicit threat against the Bab Al Mandeb, keep the baseline high.

The $15 fluctuation around that baseline reflects traders' preference to negotiate with (read: pay off) the IRGC rather than risk defying them.

[ikkinthekitsune @ikkinthekitsune]

@Eric_Schmitt One thing can be easily missed beneath the main headline decline in Dem patriotism:

There's still 36% of Ds who are very/extremely proud to be American!

Which implies that strong evidence that a D candidate is anti-American may be an extremely effective attack vector.

[ikkinthekitsune @ikkinthekitsune]

Ironically, China's "beloved technocratic brand of Communism" makes it all but impossible for them to win the AI race by conventional means. Which is why they're so committed to their efforts to get the US to kneecap itself through red tape and NIMBYism. A system which incentivizes everyone to exaggerate their success is far more likely to create an AI that looks like a competitor than one that can actually compete.

Which isn't to say Chinese AI isn't dangerous. It's entirely possible that their shoddy safety standards and insistence on demanding their AIs lie for the sake of political correctness end up creating the evil AI Hollywood has taught us to fear. But even in that worst case scenario, we'll probably be okay if we build out our AI infrastructure expeditiously without losing sight of the fact that AI is meant to serve human goods.

[ikkinthekitsune @ikkinthekitsune]

Allow me to propose a way out that might be mutually acceptable:

Most individuals on the Left, in seeing themselves as victims of circumstance, have long since lost the capacity to act as proper agents of evil. Rather, they are, as they believe, trapped within a system outside of their control. It just so happens that the evil system oppressing them is neither society nor objective reality, but the Leftist ideology that has convinced them it's their only hope of salvation.

The dark spirits of envy and resentment that define Leftism drive Leftists to inevitable failure, then utilize that very failure to weaponize them against the successful. They're culpable for that initial fall, certainly, but by the time they've shifted from evil desires to pettiness to seriously evil actions, there's hardly an individual left to take responsibility, just a brainwashed tentacle of an evil collective acting according to the whims of the mob.

(One caveat: the demagogues at the top tend to be way more cynical/power-hungry and remain fully responsible because of it. They're also manifestly unlikely to change except by force.)

For the person on the Left, the idea that they're unwitting tools of an evil collective takes their experience seriously while reframing it in a less pernicious direction - they can get the emotional satisfaction of overthrowing their oppressor without destroying society in the process. (This is probably why many of the most valuable figures on the Right are former Leftists.)

For the person on the Right, it allows the objective immorality of the Leftists' actions to be retained while treating them as fellow human beings to be rescued rather than enemies to be destroyed. And that's honestly preferable for most American conservatives, who generally have zero desire to purge all Leftists as irredeemably evil.

[ikkinthekitsune @ikkinthekitsune]

@miadmaleki @SecScottBessent That oil also seems to be functioning simultaneously as hostage and bait:

The fate of the Kylo is an implicit threat against all Iran's oil afloat, regardless of location.

And any company that buys the oil is liable to be made an example of under Economic Outcast.

[ikkinthekitsune @ikkinthekitsune]

@Osint613 @MenchOsint @HFI_Research They're desperate to counteract the disastrous loss of the Ali Taher Ridge in defiance of their red line. And since they know attacking Israel will trigger disproportionate retribution, ineffectively launching missiles at the USN and claiming they hit is all they've got left.

[ikkinthekitsune @ikkinthekitsune]

@NiohBerg Globalist politicos found themselves with a military full of American patriots champing at the bit for a new Crusade and tried to "fix" it by convincing the American people that Islam is a religion of peace.

The urban core fell for it; meanwhile, SecWar has a "Deus Vult" tattoo.

[ikkinthekitsune @ikkinthekitsune]

@ChinaUncensored It's also a great example of propaganda backfire. "Japan is the Israel of East Asia" just makes Japan seem even more awesome to everyone who isn't already a Third Worldist NPC.

(Also, any red-blooded American who balks at "stealing food" needs an intervention. 😂)

[ikkinthekitsune @ikkinthekitsune]

@SuitablePolitic Alternate read: Trump wants Vance to avoid burning bridges with Tucker and his fellow travelers for now, since keeping Iran doves in his orbit maximizes the odds of IRGC miscalculation. Kind of like how Trump had a photo op with Tucker shortly before launching Epic Fury.

[ikkinthekitsune @ikkinthekitsune]

@iranidaturan "Last time, people had to keep living inside the old order because no alternative was thinkable."

Which is why the continuation of the old order must become unthinkable: an "unthinkable" all-or-nothing gamble on change ceases to be a risk if doing nothing costs everything.

[ikkinthekitsune @ikkinthekitsune]

I didn't hear about Ukraine providing FPVs in Syria, but it makes a lot of sense as a way to damage Russia at minimal cost. And the same thing would likely apply in Iran!

I did hear about the drones used in the Israeli sneak attack being assembled on site but hadn't thought through the implications of possibly already having 3D printers in the country, since drones seem like the sort of thing that are really easy to break down into multiple plausibly deniable packages to smuggle across a border even if there's no capacity to manufacture them inside the country. 3D printers would certainly increase the availability, though!

The trickiest thing to obtain would be explosives, but even without them, a drone seems easy enough to turn into a flying Molotov cocktail that can be used to set things on fire (possibly even exacerbated by intentional lithium battery runaway), and the FPV ones fly fast enough that a blade on the front might be enough to accomplish targeted assassinations. Drones plus Ukraine-style independent inventiveness seem like they could go a very long way even with extremely limited resources.

[ikkinthekitsune @ikkinthekitsune]

@iranidaturan @NiohBerg @CautiouslyOpti9 Re: arming Iranians, I wonder whether the initial failure might have resulted in a change of plan rather than an abandonment of the concept.

Improvised FPV drone weapons seem both a lot easier to smuggle in piecemeal and a lot more effective at covert resistance than firearms.

[ikkinthekitsune @ikkinthekitsune]

@iranidaturan Going even further: Afghanistan and Iraq ultimately functioned as fronts in that same Forever War, and it was ultimately the US' refusal to cut the funding at its source in Tehran that ensured that a successful conclusion was not within the realm of possible outcomes.

[ikkinthekitsune @ikkinthekitsune]

@iranidaturan A different way to think about it: the US has been in a Forever War with Iran since 1979.

The current flare up is not only not the cause of a new Forever War, it's the best chance of ending an old one... as long as we don't pull back in fear of getting stuck in a Forever War.

[ikkinthekitsune @ikkinthekitsune]

One thing to add: one of the largest benefits of economic attrition is that the adversary has no rational incentive to respond to unequal economic losses by escalating kinetically, because it's game over if the US takes its self-imposed kinetic limiters off.

And so, the adversary sits and gets strangled, because it's at least possible that that US could get bored and go away.

Of course, that's way less likely than it would be in an attritional kinetic conflict, because the long term impact on the US populace is negligible. And by the time the adversary recognizes that the continuing economic damage has become existential, it's been largely stripped of of its capacity to put up a kinetic fight... or even to pay its supporters.

Incidentally, unpaid workers have been setting Chinese factories ablaze for months without any kinetic or even covert action against Beijing on Washington's part. All we had to do was cut the flow of dirty oil.

[ikkinthekitsune @ikkinthekitsune]

@infantrydort I honestly think the media is trying to cause World War III with this constant "out of interceptors" panic mongering, and the secret Moscow meeting was intended to convince Russia that believing their lies and acting accordingly would be an enormous mistake.

[ikkinthekitsune @ikkinthekitsune]

@expatanon

[ikkinthekitsune @ikkinthekitsune]

Presumably, the negotiations behind the MoU were conducted in such a way that, in conjunction with the anti-Trump media's best efforts to portray the intervention as a failure, it would ensure that the regime remained completely out of touch with reality as Trump's blockade and sanctions wound ever tighter.

Ideally, they'll be convinced they can survive under the MoU terms until the moment they're swept out of power by a popular revolt. And, in the meantime, the oil will keep flowing even as they remain convinced that the Strait is still effective leverage.

In other words: it makes perfect sense that they seem delusional when Trump is intentionally using their delusion against them.

[ikkinthekitsune @ikkinthekitsune]

@GordoCDA Redeploying out of uncooperative Western European countries to friendlier countries further east within the European theater while retaining overall force strength seems like a decent play. Might save money while also better optimizing location given a free Eastern Europe.

[ikkinthekitsune @ikkinthekitsune]

@Osint613 @ariel_oseran Wasting all the available fuel waiting in fuel lines and then running out in the most inconvenient place possible seems like a great plausibly-deniable way to hurt the regime. Especially since they're terrified of reducing the fuel price subsidy.