Peter Thiel: "If you add more people to the mix and you're not allowed to build more houses because of zoning laws, then prices go up a lot, and it's this incredible wealth transfer from the young and the lower middle class to the upper middle class and the landlords."
James Dyson dropped the tightest 7-minute product launch you’ll ever see and somehow found new ways to innovate a vacuum.
The Dyson PencilVac FluffyCone is:
▫️world’s thinnest vacuum (38mm, 1.8kg)
▫️has special cones so hair doesn’t get stuck (unreal lol)
▫️new design so cleaner head can go right against walls (also up in cupboards and under sofas)
▫️360-degree illumination so you can see all dirt
▫️powerful new motor entirely in handle (with new dispensing system)
I know about this because my wife watches Dyson demo vids like they are Peak Steve Jobs Appe keynotes.
She sent it and said “we are definitely getting this when it’s out” to add to the fan, OG vacuum, hair dryer and air purifier. Ugh.
Not even exaggerating, but this is exactly the type of math you see management consultants doing to estimate TAM of a niche industry
https://t.co/9X7BMk5MSS
TAM for true disrupters is stupid and unknown at Seed.
One question I always ask myself as a venture investor at this point is:
Will the company's invention active a huge new category of customers? (growing the TAM)
Many VCs passed on Shopify because the TAM was "only 40,000 e-commerce sites" when they launched.
There are now over 1M on Shopify alone. The existence of Shopify grew the market by orders of magnitude.
The reason SF is lame is because you don't come across those idea guys that find out that you code and suggest splitting profits 50/50 for one of their ideas as long as you just code it
Welcome to the rabbit hole of massive companies that exist because their giant sales team will convince you they’re fully integrated with whatever other awful software that other team at your company decided to use and you can’t rip it out now or who even knows what will break
Things LPs chased that seemed like obviously bad ideas at the time:
1. Venture studios
2. Crypto firms of most kinds
3. Funds that mostly just mark up other funds
4. "Famous" GPs w/o track records
5. SPACs (am being forced to include this one)
What else is on this list?
"Don't learn to code. Soon GUIs will do it all for you." - 1985
"Don't learn to code. Soon that will all be done offshore for pennies." - 2003
"Don't learn to code. Soon nocode tools will do it all for you." - 2015
"Don't learn to code. Soon AI will do it all for you." - 2023
200,000 people have been laid off in tech (what I called the Patagonia vest recession). "Adjusting to the new era may be painful for people who’ve spent their entire careers employed during Silicon Valley’s boom years."
A common pivot: financial firms. https://t.co/EF6o5oYckY