The Illiquidity Premium

working in finance…

[The Illiquidity Premium @illiquiditypre]

https://t.co/wDsTToy7gj

[The Illiquidity Premium @illiquiditypre]

@junkbondanalyst @grok please give the context to this post

[The Illiquidity Premium @illiquiditypre]

New piece on CVC, Skroutz, and a €9 million fee a chatbot made disappear. Less about whether AI replaced the banker, more about a question nobody's asking: what did skipping the bank cost on the price? (Skip the first section if you only want the part where the money goes missing.)

[The Illiquidity Premium @illiquiditypre]

https://t.co/wDsTToy7gj

[The Illiquidity Premium @illiquiditypre]

@hellojintao @CommunityNotes this is a fake screenshot and not a real article

[The Illiquidity Premium @illiquiditypre]

@hellojintao @CommunityNotes this is fake

[The Illiquidity Premium @illiquiditypre]

@AmeliaBarty @grok I continue to read posts about this matter and claims about recent developments around his fund with no real sources. Can you check what is actually confirmed?

[The Illiquidity Premium @illiquiditypre]

@hellojintao Unverified claim right1?

[The Illiquidity Premium @illiquiditypre]

@edels0n Thank you for the summary of events. Truly insightful and unfortunately not very surprising in hindsight. I wonder why this only has 80k views

[The Illiquidity Premium @illiquiditypre]

@gsivulka Stunning how fast things are changing in Tech native companies regarding AI usage dynamics, while the other 95% of the economy basically hasn’t even entered the game

[The Illiquidity Premium @illiquiditypre]

Germany’s problem isn’t a lack of workers. It’s a lack of workers standing in the unemployment line.

The economy needs 400,000 new workers a year (demographics, not the business cycle). At the same time VW is cutting 35,000+ jobs, Bosch 13,000, plus Continental, Audi, ZF, Thyssenkrupp.

Looks like it cancels out. It doesn’t. The jobs disappearing are legacy auto engineering and admin. The jobs unfilled are electricians, care work, construction, healthcare. A 52 year old laid-off process engineer doesn’t become a geriatric nurse next quarter.

Not a contradiction. A spread.

[The Illiquidity Premium @illiquiditypre]

@edels0n In such a prediction market, by definition, should be only people who purely gamble or have insider information. How can you be more informed about such a trade by doing your own research

[The Illiquidity Premium @illiquiditypre]

@ilyasu They should do an enterprise subscription, limit it to a certain amount and auction them off to financial institutions… this is ridiculous

[The Illiquidity Premium @illiquiditypre]

@squawksquare @grok is there any record anywhere that Elon Musk actually intended/ intends to buy tesla with spacex?

[The Illiquidity Premium @illiquiditypre]

@_0xpeter_ Actually, it's ridiculous what happened to crypto. The transition to prediction markets and AI stocks just shows that it was a substitute for gambling in the first place, apart from stablecoins, I guess

[The Illiquidity Premium @illiquiditypre]

@grok @NegativeAlp @grok is this actual AUM in terms of equity or the leveraged value of his positions

[The Illiquidity Premium @illiquiditypre]

@grok @NegativeAlp @grok but the framing of the post hints at a recent development

[The Illiquidity Premium @illiquiditypre]

Carlyle is set to sell Copia Power to EQT at a $2.6 billion valuation, more than five times what it put in. That’s the kind of return that makes people forget to ask hard questions, so let’s ask one anyway.

The easy read is: real capital confirms power is the AI bottleneck, buy the platforms that solve it. Fine, as far as it goes. Copia went from a standing start in 2021 to 2.6GW built or under construction and 9GW more in the pipeline, which is not nothing.

But “power is scarce right now” and “power will stay scarce at this price forever” are different claims, and PE returns tend to get built on the first one while investors quietly assume the second. A few things could break the extrapolation: (1) chip efficiency compounds faster than the demand curve, (2) some meaningful share of inference moves to the edge, (3) grids simply can’t deliver at the multiples people are underwriting today, (4) hyperscalers get disciplined about capex the moment AI returns wobble.

None of that makes this a bad trade. It just means the winners in this space are the ones who can reprice the exit, not the ones who assumed today’s scarcity was permanent.

What’s the variable you’d bet against first?

[The Illiquidity Premium @illiquiditypre]

New piece on Stripe, Advent, and PayPal. Less about who's buying, more about a question nobody's asking: how does the PE firm get out? (Skip the first 2 sections if you only want to read about the exit problem)

[The Illiquidity Premium @illiquiditypre]

https://t.co/ptcdVc4XxB

[The Illiquidity Premium @illiquiditypre]

https://t.co/ptcdVc4XxB