Adam Livingston

The Bitcoin Wizard | Author of The Great Harvest | @BitcoinForCorps | Advisor @saturn_credit | MSTR + MTPLF + ASST HODLER |

[Adam Livingston @AdamBLiv]

Average annual increase of the US National Debt:

1993 to 2008: $370 billion per year
2008 to 2017: $1.14 trillion per year
2017 to 2026: $2.23 trillion per year

Bitcoin continues to be the best idea in the world.

[Adam Livingston @AdamBLiv]

The autistic internet people who spent 16+ years screaming “BUY THE MAGIC INTERNET COINS” will end up owning half the planet while every respectable financial expert who laughed at them is doing sponsored LinkedIn posts for a reverse-mortgage startup.

[Adam Livingston @AdamBLiv]

THE CLOCK IS RUNNING OUT FOR THE 4 YEAR CYCLE BROS:

[Adam Livingston @AdamBLiv]

“There’s no way Bitcoin can go to $250k bro.”

Really?

Bitcoin is around $78,850 today.

With roughly 20.075 million BTC in circulation, Bitcoin’s entire market cap is about $1.58 trillion.

At $250,000 per Bitcoin?

About $5.02 trillion.

That means Bitcoin needs to add roughly $3.44 TRILLION in market value to get there.

Sounds insane?

Nvidia ended 2022 worth roughly $364 BILLION.

Today Nvidia is worth about $5.10 TRILLION.

That means ONE COMPANY has added roughly $4.74 TRILLION in market value since the end of 2022.

Read that again.

Bitcoin going from ~$78,850 to $250,000 would require only about 73% as much market-cap creation as NVIDIA ALONE has already produced since the end of 2022.

And here’s the hilarious part:

At $250,000 Bitcoin, the ENTIRE BITCOIN NETWORK would still be worth roughly the same as Nvidia is worth TODAY.

People hear “$250,000 Bitcoin” and picture some impossible monetary event requiring the global financial system to be turned upside down.

The market literally just watched ONE TECH COMPANY create more value than Bitcoin needs to add to get there.

$250K BITCOIN ISN’T MATHEMATICALLY ABSURD.

YOUR FRAME OF REFERENCE IS.

Bullish on Bitcoin. $BTC

[Adam Livingston @AdamBLiv]

Bitcoin is doing something extremely bullish beneath the surface.

Older coins are waking up - and the market is absorbing them.

The latest 6–12 month SVAB print hit the 92nd percentile since 2017.

Even on a 30-day basis:

6–12m supply: 86th percentile
6m+ supply: 87th percentile
1y+ supply: 86th percentile
3y+ supply: 82nd percentile

Yet Bitcoin is still sitting around $78.5K.

Increasingly stubborn supply is coming back into circulation, buyers are taking the other side, and price is refusing to collapse.

I ran a stricter historical analog: periods where 6–12m, 6m+, and 1y+ 30-day spent volume were all at least as elevated as today, separating regimes by 90 days.

There were only 6 prior regimes, so treat the sample accordingly.

Median forward BTC returns:

30D: -1.9%
90D: -5.0%
180D: +21.7%
365D: +82.1%

That pattern is fascinating.

The short term was often messy because the market was actively digesting supply.

The longer-term outcome was dramatically better.

This looks less like a clean momentum signal and more like an absorption signal.

If BTC keeps climbing while these older cohorts remain elevated, that is a hell of a message from the market:

Give me your coins. I can take them.

[Adam Livingston @AdamBLiv]

WOW: Bitcoin's correlation with tech has COLLAPSED.

Over the last year, BTC has maintained a respectable relationship with high-duration tech:

BTC / QQQ correlation: 0.44
BTC / IGV correlation: 0.40

But look underneath the hood.

During the major tech-beta regimes last fall and again in Feb/March, Bitcoin's 20-day correlation with QQQ and IGV repeatedly lived around 0.60-0.70+.

Today:

BTC / QQQ 20D correlation: -0.05
BTC / IGV 20D correlation: +0.03

Essentially ZERO.

Now look at what happened while that correlation disappeared.

Since August 10:

Bitcoin: +21.8%
QQQ: -1.7%
IGV: -3.0%

The factor driving Bitcoin's marginal return appears to have changed.

The market spent portions of the last year pricing BTC like an extremely volatile high-duration risk asset.

Then the latest leg happened while software fell, Nasdaq fell, and Bitcoin ripped more than 20%.

That is a completely different market structure.

Bitcoin now has an idiosyncratic bid strong enough to rally without tech.

If QQQ subsequently resumes its bull market while that Bitcoin-specific demand remains?

You potentially go from one engine to two.

BTC-specific capital keeps bidding Bitcoin.

Then traditional risk-on liquidity comes back and starts bidding everything again.

Correlation can re-expand because TECH CATCHES UP TO BITCOIN rather than Bitcoin needing Nasdaq to drag it higher.

That is the regime change I'm watching.

Bitcoin just rallied 22% while one of its historical macro transmission mechanisms effectively switched off.

Something else is driving the bus now:

[Adam Livingston @AdamBLiv]

Current ASST situation:

ASST is now at an expanded 1.79x CEBE mNAV premium after this latest Bitcoin rally.

Obviously, with added premium over NAV comes added risk, depending on investing time horizon, along with other factors. If you can't ride the volatility super dragon for enough time to make the machine work for you, this wouldn't be ideal.

I think it's reasonable to assume Bitcoin could go back to $126,000 in 1 year by August of 2027. That'd be almost 2 months removed from all-time high.

If the fundraising mechanisms were totally shut down and we move the static snapshot of the balance sheet forward as Bitcoin goes to that price, ASST would go to $40 per share with no additional Bitcoin or mNAV expansion.

But we know they're buying lots of Bitcoin, lifting the NAV floor along the way.

The breakeven mNAV for that date to outpace Bitcoin would be 1.53x.

Do you think the mNAV will go down by more than 0.25x in a run to $126k Bitcoin? I don't.

Do you think they'll probably add Bitcoin exposure along the way?

I don't think paying the premium today is illogical, ESPECIALLY if you can handle the volatility over long time horizons.

Just my opinion.

[Adam Livingston @AdamBLiv]

They told you $100k a year meant you made it.

So you traded 2 hours a day commuting, 50 hours a week pretending to care, sunlight, your health, your family, and eventually your soul for a direct deposit.

Then inflation ate the raise anyway.

The salary was never the prize.

YOU were the product.

Bitcoin gives you YOURSELF back.

[Adam Livingston @AdamBLiv]

The Strive domination continues.

We're not even halfway through trading this week and there is an estimated ~556 Bitcoin acquired for Strive through the SATA ATM.

This is equivalent to 2.6% of their Bitcoin stack.

Same pace until Friday close gets them over 1,000 Bitcoin from only tapping the SATA ATM.

That'd over 5% of their current stack.

Remember, I'd imagine they hit the ASST ATM too with this incredible trading volume and premium.

Probably over 2,000 Bitcoin acquired this week total for 10% of their total stack.

Probably nothing.

$ASST

[Adam Livingston @AdamBLiv]

Since January 12, 2024:

MSTR: +161.2%
IBIT: +79.1%
MSTR outperformance: +82.1 percentage points

Put another way, $10,000 in MSTR became ~$26,124 versus ~$17,909 in IBIT.

So the MSTR investment finished with ~45.9% more value than the same starting investment in IBIT.

Now we're back on the launchpad.

$MSTR

[Adam Livingston @AdamBLiv]

Bitcoin teaches patience.

You spend 4 years getting called an idiot, endure a 50% drawdown, question every decision you’ve made since middle school, watch a dog coin outperform you for three months, and then one random Wednesday your net worth increases by the price of a suburban house while you’re microwaving leftover chicken.

[Adam Livingston @AdamBLiv]

The next Bitcoin mania is going to be spiritually devastating for everyone who “almost bought.”

Imagine watching your coworker Chad, a man who once microwaved aluminum foil and lost $8,000 trading options on a cruise-line company, retire at 41 because he simply bought Bitcoin every payday while you spent twelve years waiting for regulatory clarity.

[Adam Livingston @AdamBLiv]

FUN FACT: XRP is now at $1.43.

It was at $3.02 exactly 3,153 DAYS AGO on January 6th, 2018.

In contrast, Bitcoin is up 361%, going from $17,000 to $78,401.

Everything goes to zero against Bitcoin.

[Adam Livingston @AdamBLiv]

$ASST is doing something pretty insane right now.

Over the last 10 trading sessions, the ASST + SATA complex traded about 1.74x more of its Bitcoin-stack value per day than MSTR + STRC.

Over the last 5 sessions that jumps to roughly 1.98x.

Today? About 2.85x.

That matters because Strategy’s BTC stack is still vastly larger, but liquidity is the lifeblood of a Bitcoin treasury company.

If your securities trade huge relative to the size of the underlying stack, you have the raw market plumbing to raise capital, feed the treasury, and compound faster than your balance sheet size alone would imply.

In plain English: Strive is punching WAY above its weight.

The market is treating ASST like an amplified Bitcoin vehicle with real sponsorship, real reflexivity, and real appetite. MSTR is still the giant, but on a stack-adjusted liquidity basis, ASST has been an absolute freak.

That’s exactly the setup you’d expect to see before a smaller Bitcoin treasury name starts forcing people to completely re-underwrite what it’s capable of becoming.

[Adam Livingston @AdamBLiv]

The funniest part of Bitcoin reaching $1 million will be watching people insist nobody could have seen it coming after 16 years of public price history, institutional adoption, sovereign accumulation, and one deranged man at Thanksgiving repeatedly explaining absolute scarcity while everyone begged him to discuss literally anything else.

[Adam Livingston @AdamBLiv]

Bitcoin is going to melt faces so violently that entire branches of American civilization will be erased from the archaeological record.

Some guy named Cody is selling his stack at $79,000 because the transmission fell out of his 2014 Silverado after he tried towing a bass boat with one functional spark plug. His girlfriend Kayleigh already spent the tax refund on a sectional from Rent-A-Center, three Stanley cups, and a purebred French bulldog that breathes like a shop vacuum eating a bath towel. Their adjustable-rate double-wide is behind on payments. The Monster Energy fridge in the garage has been repossessed. A regional manager from Aaron’s is circling the property like an Apache helicopter.

Cody sells 0.63 BTC, fixes the truck, buys $440 worth of fireworks, and celebrates his financial recovery with twelve Bud Light Platinums at a Buffalo Wild Wings located between a vape shop and a pediatric urgent care. 18 months later, Bitcoin hits $400,000. That stack would have paid off his house, truck, boat, child-support arrears, and the financed zero-turn mower he used exactly twice before hitting a buried trampoline spring.

He will stare at the chart from a cracked Android while standing barefoot in an above-ground pool turning faintly green behind a privacy fence assembled from six different kinds of lumber. His cigarette will burn all the way down to the filter. Kayleigh will ask why he’s being weird. Somewhere inside, a smoke detector will chirp every 43 seconds.

Across America, millions of people will experience this exact spiritual execution. They sold the hardest asset on Earth to finance transmissions, destination weddings, sports-betting parlays, Bluetooth coolers, and kitchen islands made of material legally classified as countertop-adjacent.

Then Bitcoin will rip through $500,000 like God’s own repo man, collecting every coin from every weak hand and leaving behind a continent of stunned men silently pressure-washing the same patch of driveway for four consecutive hours.

bitcoin:native

[Adam Livingston @AdamBLiv]

BITCOIN IS IN A RAGING BULL MARKET

THIS COULD GET VIOLENT:

https://t.co/ij0TdGq1Df

[Adam Livingston @AdamBLiv]

🚀BITCOIN IS IN A RAGING BULL MARKET - THIS COULD GET VIOLENT!🚀

Are y'all HAVING FUN YET? Check this out.

I break down why Bitcoin may already be in a raging bull market...and why the move from $58,526 to nearly $79,000 could be JUST THE BEGINNING.

Long-term holders capitulated, short-term holders reclaimed profitability, old supply was absorbed, and recent buyers are barely selling.

The on-chain structure increasingly looks like a genuine post-capitulation bull market:

[Adam Livingston @AdamBLiv]

Please like this video and subscribe to my channel to support my MISSION of spreading the ORANGE GOSPEL of Bitcoin to the masses!

https://t.co/ciWL70zexx

[Adam Livingston @AdamBLiv]

SATA is just DOMINATING.

Wouldn't surprise me in the slightest if we see Strive with 24,000+ BTC on the balance sheet by Monday.

The Bitcoin flywheel is BACK and it is BEAUTIFUL: