Every major power involved in a conflict is moving differently.
Russia is continuing to pressure Ukraine while expanding the conflict beyond the immediate battlefield.
Iran is pushing for diplomacy, but is still refusing to give up its core demands.
China is using diplomacy with Washington while making its position on Taiwan clear.
North Korea is moving closer to Russia and openly supporting Moscow.
The United States is now dealing with pressure across Europe, the Middle East and Asia at the same time.
These countries are not moving randomly.
Each one is preparing for a different future.
And the most important question is whether these separate strategies eventually collide.
If you want to understand where a major war could come from, do not just count the conflicts happening around the world. Look at how they interact.
That is the part I keep watching.
Russia does not need to attack NATO tomorrow for the situation in Europe to become more dangerous. Sabotage, cyberattacks, airspace incidents and other forms of pressure can already force European governments to make decisions and respond. European officials have described an increase in Russian hybrid activity, while also saying there is no immediate conventional attack on NATO.
Taiwan is another example. China does not need to launch an invasion for the pressure around the island to increase. The situation is changing. Recent monitoring has shown continued PLA operations, while Chinese coast guard and other official vessels around Taiwan have become a larger part of the pressure campaign.
Then there is North Korea, with its continuing missile development and increasingly important relationship with Russia.
And the Middle East is already showing how a regional conflict can affect countries far outside the battlefield. Shipping through the Strait of Hormuz has fallen sharply during the current conflict, turning a regional crisis into a problem for global energy and trade.
None of these events, by themselves, means World War III is coming.
The bigger problem is what happens when they overlap.
If Russia increases pressure on Europe while the United States is dealing with a crisis in Asia, the strategic calculation changes.
If China sees an opportunity while Washington is distracted elsewhere, the calculation changes again.
If North Korea chooses that moment to increase pressure on South Korea, another crisis appears.
And if the Middle East continues disrupting energy and shipping, every major power has another problem to manage.
I see 2027–2030 as a period in which several existing tensions could become connected.
A world war would not necessarily begin with one dramatic announcement.
It could begin with several smaller decisions that eventually become impossible to separate.
One crisis changes another.
One alliance reacts.
Another country responds.
Then the next crisis starts under completely different conditions.